因乐卫玛专利胜诉上调预期和目标价；重申持有

FY3/25AFY3/26EFY3/27E789,400.0790,036.9797,167.61.5x1.5x1.5x765,947.8809,204.1821,264.554,37754,51254,498 FY3/28E814,584.41.4x847,552.461,864 Stephen Barker * | Equity Analyst813 6830 3612 | sbarker@jefferies.comMiyabi Yamakita * | Equity Analyst+81 3 6830 3610 | myamakita@jefferies.com The Long View: EisaiInvestment Thesis / Where We DifferAlzheimer's treatment Leqembi is the biggest swing factor for Eisai.Estimates of peak sales vary widely. We think Leqembi can achieve globalpeak sales of about ¥264bn by FY3/34, which is much lower than the VisibleAlpha consensus figure of ¥519bn.Base Case,¥4200, +4%We estimate that Leqembi can achieve globalsales of about ¥264bn by FY3/34. We arrive atour ¥4,200 price target using DCF, assuming aWACC of 5% and a terminal growth rate of 0%.Sustainability MattersTop Material Issue(s): 1) Business Model Resilience:Eisai relies on R&D to replenish its portfolio ofmarketed products. R&D productivity is extremely hard to measure. Without a consistent rate of newproduct launches, Eisai may struggle to grow revenues.2) Access & Affordability:The global pharmaindustry has attracted a lot of criticism for the high and rising price of new medicines, which can makeit hard or impossible for less wealthy people to access the best medicines.Company Target(s): 1)Aiming to increase the proportion of women managers to 30%, from the April2021 level of 11%.2)Aiming to increase the proportion of Director-level managers in their 30s oryounger to 20%, from 10% in April 2021.Qs to Mgmt: 1)Will you need to hire more mid-career women to hit female manager ratio targets?2)Is hiring younger people over the heads of their older colleagues having any sort of negative (orpositive) impact on morale?ESG Sector Deep Dive:Japan Healthcare ESGPlease see important disclosure information on pages 5 - 11 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Upside Scenario,¥5000, +24%If we were to assume a WACC of 4%, then thecompany might be worth ¥5,000 per share. Downside Scenario,¥3700, -8%If we were to assume a WACC of 6%, then thecompany might be worth ¥3,700 per share.Catalysts•Potential FDA approval for SubCu Leqembi formaintenance therapy on 31 August. 2 Exhibit 1 - Eisai sales.(¥m)FY3/25NeurologyAricept25,100Methycobal26,700Fycompa29,800Dayvigo (US)Dayvigo (Japan)44,500Leqembi US26,100Leqembi Japan12,700Leqembi otherE2814 (ant-tau Ab)Other Neurology22,700Total Neurology199,900OncologyLenvima/Kisplyx, Japan13,900Lenvima/Kisplyx, America232,300Lenvima/Kisplyx, EMEA41,900Lenvima/Kisplyx, Other40,400Lenvima/Kisplyx328,500Halaven, JapanHalaven, AmericaHalaven, EMEAHalaven, OtherHalaven28,800MORAb-202H3B-6527Other onocologyTotal Oncology365,800Other Major RxElentalGooficeMovicolJyseleca14,800OTC22,500Other pharmaceutical183,148Pharmaceutical Sales749,000Lenvima milestones etc.MORAb-202 milestones etc.Other40,400Total milestones/others40,400Total sales789,400Source: Jef est., company info.Please see important disclosure information on pages 5 - 11 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Exhibit 2 - Eisai financials.P&L(¥m)SalesGross ProfitsSG&A (ex-R&D)R&DEBITDAOther Operating (net)OPNon-operating (net)Pre-tax ProfitTaxNet Profit to OwnersEPSBalance Sheet(¥m)CashTotal Current AssetsTotal non-current AssetsCurrent LiabilitiesLT LiabilitiesEquityTotal Liabilities and EquityCashflow(¥m)Operating Cash FlowInvestment Cash FlowFinancial Cash FlowChange in cashKey multiples/ratios(¥)P/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDAEV/SalesROEROADebt/Equity (%)Net Debt/Equity (%)Dividend per shareDividend yield (%)Source: Jef est, FactSetPlease see important disclosure information on pages 5 - 11 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Company DescriptionEisaiEisai Co., Ltd. produces prescription drugs and medical equipment, and it sells mainly to sales agents and subsidiaries. Through its subsidiary,the company produces and sells diagnostic drugs. Eisai also markets its products through related companies in the US, Europe, and Asia.Company Valuation/RisksEisaiValuation:We arrive at our ¥4,200 price target using DCF, assuming a WACC of 5% and a terminal growth rate of 0%.Risks:The biggest risk to Eisai's share price is that Alzheimer's candidate Lecanemab fails commercially. There is also a risk that our estimatesfor Lenvima sales and milestones are smaller than our forecasts. In addition, regulatory changes affecting prices in large markets such as theUS could have a negative impact on company profits. On the other hand, it is possible that Leqembi is more successful than we are estimating,which could lead to strong profits and strong share price performance.Dr. Reddy's LaboratoriesWe value the base business at INR970/share (21x Mar-27 EPS) and add INR40/share for the gRevlimid opportunity to arrive at an SoTP-basedprice target of INR1,010. Key up