因利润率缩窄下调盈利预期和目标价；重申持有评级

FY3/25AFY3/26EFY3/27EFY3/28E789,400.0790,036.9737,127.3705,518.91.4x1.4x1.5x1.5x765,947.8805,861.6817,659.2824,789.854,37754,51232,28321,509 Stephen Barker * | Equity Analyst813 6830 3612 | sbarker@jefferies.comMiyabi Yamakita * | Equity Analyst+81 3 6830 3610 | myamakita@jefferies.comSource: Jef est., FactSet The Long View: EisaiInvestment Thesis / Where We DifferAlzheimer's treatment Leqembi is the biggest swing factor for Eisai.Estimates of peak sales vary widely. We think Leqembi can achieve globalpeak sales of about ¥264bn by FY3/34, which is much lower than the VisibleAlpha consensus figure of ¥519bn.Base Case,¥3600, -5%We estimate that Leqembi can achieve globalsales of about ¥264bn by FY3/34. We arrive atour ¥3,600 price target using DCF, assuming aWACC of 5% and a terminal growth rate of 0%.Sustainability MattersTop Material Issue(s): 1) Business Model Resilience:Eisai relies on R&D to replenish its portfolioof marketed products. R&D productivity is extremely hard to measure. Without a consistent rate ofnew product launches, Eisai may struggle to grow revenues.2) Access & Affordability:The globalpharma industry has attracted a lot of criticism for the high and rising price of new medicines, whichcan make it hard or impossible for less wealthy people to access the best medicines.Company Target(s): 1)Aiming to increase the proportion of women managers to 30%, from the April2021 level of 11%.2)Aiming to increase the proportion of Director-level managers in their 30s oryounger to 20%, from 10% in April 2021.Qs to Mgmt: 1)Will you need to hire more mid-career women to hit female manager ratio targets?2)Is hiring younger people over the heads of their older colleagues having any sort of negative (orpositive) impact on morale?ESG Sector Deep Dive:Japan Healthcare ESGPlease see important disclosure information on pages 5 - 10 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Upside Scenario,¥4400, +16%If we were to assume a WACC of 4%, then thecompany might be worth ¥4,400 per share. Downside Scenario,¥3100, -18%If we were to assume a WACC of 6%, then thecompany might be worth ¥3,100 per share.Catalysts•Potential FDA approval for SubCu Leqembi formaintenance therapy on 31 August. 2 Exhibit 3 - Eisai sales.(¥m)NeurologyAriceptMethycobalFycompaDayvigo (US)Dayvigo (Japan)Leqembi USLeqembi JapanLeqembi otherE2814 (ant-tau Ab)Other NeurologyTotal Neurology199,900OncologyLenvima/Kisplyx, JapanLenvima/Kisplyx, America232,300Lenvima/Kisplyx, EMEALenvima/Kisplyx, OtherLenvima/Kisplyx328,500Halaven, JapanHalaven, AmericaHalaven, EMEAHalaven, OtherHalavenMORAb-202H3B-6527Other onocologyTotal Oncology365,800Other Major RxElentalGooficeMovicolJyselecaOTCOther pharmaceutical183,148Pharmaceutical Sales749,000Lenvima milestones etc.MORAb-202 milestones etc.OtherTotal milestones/othersTotal sales789,400Source: Jef est., company info.Please see important disclosure information on pages 5 - 10 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Exhibit 4 - Eisai financials.P&L(¥m)SalesGross ProfitsSG&A (ex-R&D)R&DEBITDAOther Operating (net)OPNon-operating (net)Pre-tax ProfitTaxNet Profit to OwnersEPSBalance Sheet(¥m)CashTotal Current AssetsTotal non-current AssetsCurrent LiabilitiesLT LiabilitiesEquityTotal Liabilities and EquityCashflow(¥m)Operating Cash FlowInvestment Cash FlowFinancial Cash FlowChange in cashKey multiples/ratios(¥)P/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDAEV/SalesROEROADebt/Equity (%)Net Debt/Equity (%)Dividend per shareDividend yield (%)Source: Jef est., FactSetPlease see important disclosure information on pages 5 - 10 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Company DescriptionEisaiEisai Co., Ltd. produces prescription drugs and medical equipment, and it sells mainly to sales agents and subsidiaries. Through its subsidiary,the company produces and sells diagnostic drugs. Eisai also markets its products through related companies in the US, Europe, and Asia.Company Valuation/RisksEisaiValuation:We arrive at our ¥3,600 price target using DCF, assuming a WACC of 5% and a terminal growth rate of 0%.Risks:The biggest risk to Eisai's share price is that Alzheimer's candidate Lecanemab fails commercially. There is also a risk that our estimatesfor Lenvima sales and milestones are smaller than our forecasts. In addition, regulatory changes affecting prices in large markets such as theUS could have a negative impact on company profits. On the other hand, it is possible that Leqembi is more successful than we are estimating,which could lead to strong profits and strong share price performance.Analyst Certification:I, Stephen Barker, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) andsubject company(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will