英伟达公司（NVDA）：一切就绪

2.992.99 2025E2026E2027E196,967.3248,134.4276,387.4198,320.4242,111.6257,109.04.205.636.264.265.586.03 Blayne Curtis * | Equity Analyst(212) 336-7493 | bcurtis@jefferies.comEzra Weener * | Equity Associate(917) 344-1860 | eweener@jefferies.comCrawford Clarke, CFA * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 336-7399 | cclarke2@jefferies.comAlex Fernandez * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 778-8731 | afernandez1@jefferies.com The Long View: NVIDIA CorporationInvestment Thesis / Where We Differ•Industry checks suggest further upside with beats continuing as Blackwellramps.•Unique bottom-up approach with multiple inputs from Asian and Fuboncounterparts through the supply chain (ODM, Packaging, CoWoS, etc).•See increased systems sales with the ramp of the GB200, further increasingthe competitive moat.Base Case,$185, +37%•NVDA remains the dominant supplier ofacceleration solutions in the data center.•Gaming TAM expands at a double-digit CAGR.•Auto modeled to grow conservatively, given AVramp timing uncertainty.•Price Target: $185implies 30x our CY27E EPSof $6.26.Sustainability MattersTop Material Issue(s): 1) Product Design & Lifecycle:NVDA’s GPU is the leader in graphics and parallelprocessing for HPC acceleration for AI workloads. NVDA estimates that its GPUs provide 20x betterenergy efficiency for these workloads over CPU servers. Its GPU leadership is bolstered by its extensiveecosystem, which expands developer adoption and application/use cases. Future NVDA GPU growth willbe driven by new applications such as Omniverse, a 3D simulation platform. One application of Omniversewas Earth-2, a planned AI supercomputer dedicated to being a digital twin of Earth and simulating theimpact of climate change.Company Targets: 1)Make every new generation of GPUs faster and more energy-efficient than itspredecessor.Questions for Management: 1)What sustainability potential do you see from Earth-2, and are you workingwith any climate activists on sustainability initiatives?2)What applications near and long term are thebiggest drivers for NVDA GPU adoption?Please see important disclosure information on pages 11 - 16 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Upside Scenario,$250, +85%•NVDA expanding its data center TAM andcontrolling 80%+ of the DC ecosystem.•Accelerated growth in Generative AI acrossmultiple end-markets.•Accelerated growth from Automotive,withproliferation of autonomous cars.•Gaming GPU upgrades and incrementaldemand.•Price Target: $250implies 31x our CY27E EPSof $8.00. Downside Scenario,$120, -11%•Emerging competitive threats from INTC,AMD,and internally designed ASICs fromHyperscalers take share and pressure ASPs.•Slowing datacenter capex spending fromEnterprises and Hyperscalers.•Slower-than-expected ramp of Automotiveplatform.•Price Target: $120implies 24x our CY27E EPSof $5.00.Catalysts•Product ramp of Blackwell GPUs.•Increaseddatapointsadoption.•Capex increases by hyperscaler customer base.•Automotive design wins and ramp of autoplatform. aroundGB200NVL2 We are modeling Data Center to $39.9B (+2% Q/Q, vs St. $40.9B), Gaming to $4.0B (+5% Q/Q, vs St.$3.0B), Automotive to $595M (+5% Q/Q, vs St. $606M), Professional Visualization to $519M (+2% Q/Q, vs St. $525M), and OEM/Other to $113M (+2% Q/Q vs St. $112M). Within DC, we model Computeat $33.5B (-2% Q/Q, vs $37.6B previously) and Networking at $6.4B (+30% Q/Q, vs $3.3B previously).Professional Visualization temporarily impacted by tariff-related uncertainty in Q1 but demand forAI workstations is strong and expect sequential revenue growth to resume in Q2. GM guide camerelatively in-line at 72.0% (vs St. 72.1%) with better Blackwell profitability expected to drive modestsequential improvement. Opex guided below at $4.0B (+12% Q/Q, vs St. $4.2B), implying slightlyhigher OM of 63.1% (vs St. 63.0%). Tax of 16.5% and other income/expense of $450M nets impliedEPS slightly behind at $0.98 (vs St. $1.00).Notable Call Details:On average, major hyperscalers each deploying nearly 1,000 NVL72 racksor 72,000 Blackwell GPUs per week and are on track to further ramp output this quarter. Line ofsight to projects requiring tens of GWs in the not too distant future ($40-50B/GW opportunity forNVDA). DC revenue led by Blackwell sales $25B+ (70% of Compute + NVLink). Singapore was 20%of total revenue and 99% of H100, H200, and Blackwell Data Center Compute revenue billed toSingapore was for orders from US-based customers. Spectrum-X revenue grew strong sequentiallyand Y/Y and is now at $8B annualized run rate. Google Cloud and Meta added to growing list ofSpectrum-X customers including Coreweave, Microsoft Azure, Oracle Cloud, and xAI. Sampling ofGB300 systems began earlier this month at the major CSPs with production shipments expectedto commence later this quarter. GB300 will leverage the same architecture, physical footprint, andelectrical/mechanical specifications as GB200. GB300 GPUs with 50% more HBM to deliver another