英伟达公司（NVDA）：英伟达（NVDA）我们如何让人工智能扩散规则变得更糟？

Alrick Shaw+1 917 344 8454alrick.shaw@bernsteinsg.com RatingOutperform Arpad von Nemes+1 917 344 8461arpad.vonnemes@bernsteinsg.com Price Target NVDA NVIDIA (NVDA): How can we make the AI diffusion rules worse? Late Tuesday afternoon Reuters reported on possible changes to the Biden-era AIdiffusion rules potentially being eyed by the Trump administration. The current rules, set to go into place on May 15, split the world into three differenttiers, limiting what can be shipped without licenses.Shipments to the 1sttier (18countries) are (relatively) unhampered, while shipments to the 3rdtier (countries like China,Russia, North Korea etc) are effectively prohibited. But shipments to 2ndtier countries (likeSingapore and Malaysia but also as diverse as Switzerland) would be substantially curtailedunless customers obtain new special licenses (Exhibit 1) (the overall implementation iscomplex, please see this note for a breakdown). Suffice it to say, NVDA and many others havenot been happy with these rules, and have lobbied Trump officials to walk them back. The article suggested that one of the options being currently considered is to replacethe three tiers with government-to-government agreements,seemingly tying access toAI to Trump’s broader goals on trade and, presumably allowing such access to be used as alever (or a hammer) in ongoing trade negotiations. The diffusion rules as written were already non-ideal; such a change would be clearlyworse.The current AI diffusion rules already seemed onerous and capricious, and hadthe potential to disrupt sales (from a timing perspective if nothing else) given the addedlicense burden placed on many customers. But replacing a global framework with individuallynegotiated bilateral agreements seems clearly worse. And given increasing decouplingof the US from the rest of the world we see potential risk that such rules open up furtheropportunities for non-US options like Huawei, who (even though uncompetitive had-to-head)could be seen as more viable if they become the only option available (we are about to seethis in China anyway given the recent H20 ban). We wish we could say were surprised, but nothing is surprising anymore(we evenwrote about this possibility in passing in a recent Weekend Tech Byte). It is unfortunate thatAI is getting so caught up amid ill-conceived, self-inflicted geopolitical actions given we thinkAI demand overall remains relatively healthy, and the hardware itself has some shelter fromdirect tariff effects. At least it seems that nothing has been decided yet (a “work in progress”).But this sort of uncertainty has the potential to continue weighing on NVIDIA’s multiple. INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS NVDA (Outperform, $185):The datacenter opportunity is enormous, and still early, though geopolitical headwinds are startingto weigh somewhat. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE I. REQUIRED DISCLOSURES References to "Bernstein" or the “Firm” in these disclosures relate to the following entities: Bernstein Institutional Services LLC(April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April 1,2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein (Hong Kong) Limited盛博香港有限公司,Sanford C. Bernstein (Canada) Limited, SanfordC. Bernstein (India) Private Limited (SEBI registration no. INH000006378), Sanford C. Bernstein (Singapore) Private Limited andSanford C. Bernstein Japan KK(サンフォード・C・バーンスタイン株式会社). On April 1, 2024, Société Générale (SG) and AllianceBernstein, L.P. (AB) completed a transaction that created a new joint venturein which their respective cash equities and research businesses operate in a new business combination. Although their respectiveownership percentages in the joint venture differ between North America and the rest of the world, the creation, production andpublication of research is handled collaboratively on a global basis across the two research brands, “Bernstein” and “Autonomous”.Unless specifically noted otherwise, for purposes of these disclosures, references to Bernstein’s “affiliates” relate to both SG andAB and their respective affiliates. VALUATION METHODOLOGY NVIDIA Corp We apply a ~35x multiple to our FY2027 (CY2026) non-GAAP EPS estimate of $5.25 and set our price target at $185. RISKS NVIDIA Corp Downside risks to our target price include potential for lumpiness in near-term business trends, slower than expected revenuegrowth in key end markets (impacting the stock's multiple and reducing opex leverage), risk of competitors pressuring share orpricing, customers migrating to internal silicon, and/or regulatory risks around technology exports. RATINGS DEFINITIONS, BENCHMARKS AND DISTRIBUTION Bernstein brand The Bernstein brand rates stocks based on forecasts of relative performance for the next 12 months versus the S&P 500 forstocks listed on the U.S. and Canadian exchanges, versus the Bloomberg Europe Developed Markets Large and Mid Cap PriceReturn Index (EDM) for stocks liste