森特理克（CNA LN）：维持持有评级，目标价160便士

Disclosures & DisclaimerThis report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications inthe Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it.Lower estimates reflectweaker energy trading, warmerweather and sale of stake in Cygnus gas fieldShareholder distribution story remainsintact; Sizewell Cdecisionon 11Junecouldimprove investment visibilityMaintain Holdratingand TPof160pLowering estimates.Centricadelivered a soft AGMtrading statement, with British GasResidential Energy and CentricaEnergy expected to achieve adj operating profit towardsthe lower end of their guidance ranges,and Centrica Energy Storage to incur operatingloss“towards higher end” ofthepreviously indicated range of GBP50-100m. As a result,we lower our adj operating profit estimates for 2025by 16%toGB910m.While Centricahas maintained its medium-term profit guidance, the recent update highlightsthevariablenature ofCentrica’s core businesses,withan earnings mix that is exposedto bothcommodity marketsand the weather. We remain cautious on the medium-term outlookfor Centrica Energy given our expectation of lower commodity prices and note that theweak performance inthefirst half of 2025 follows a soft 2H 2024 (EBIT: GBP75mn).Weforecastadj. EPS to be flattish from 2026e-28eas new investments and a recovery inBritish Gas Services profitabilityoffset a decline in infrastructure earnings.Distributionsandbalance sheet optionality. Despite lower earnings,Centrica’s balancesheet remainsstrong (HSBC2025e net adj cash: GBP1.8bn) andthecompany offers anattractive25edistribution yield of>14%through a combination of buybacks and DPSgrowth (+22% YoY).On the investment side, the company has demonstrated good capitaldiscipline, butwe still believe there isstillworkrequiredtoderisk the 2024-28e GBP4bncapexplan.The most immediate option could be a stake in the UK’s new nuclearprogrammewith Centrica management stating at FY 2025 results that they remaininterested.An FID for Sizewell C is expected in the government’s Spending Reviewon 11June,whichcould potentially offer Centricaexposure to alow-riskregulated income stream.We believe any concrete decision on further investment inCentrica’sRough storagefacilityremains distant given the uncertainty about hydrogen’s role in the UK’s energy mix.Maintain Hold rating and TPof160p unchanged.Welower ourestimates followingtheAGMTrading Statementand the announced saleofa46.25% stake intheCygnus gas field.Wemaintainour TPat160p implying2% upside. We maintain ourHold ratingas we believe thatgood balance sheet optionality is offset by ourexpectations for flattish EPS growthfor2026e-28eand a lack of investment visibility.Centrica(CNA LN)Hold:Targeting more stable earnings ◆◆◆ PREVIOUS TARGET(GBPp)160UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE+2.2%Free floatBBG64RIC12/2025e12.9015.37-16.013.8212.13.55.015.0High: 160 Low: 115 Current: 157 100%CNA LNCNA.L12/2026e12/2027e13.9714.1715.6115.43-10.5-8.115.3215.0611.211.03.94.35.15.515.214.310013517005/25 2Financial statementsYear to12/2024a12/2025e12/2026eProfit & loss summary(GBPm)Revenue24,63623,848EBITDA1,7921,134Depreciation & amortisation-496-363Operating profit/EBIT1,552910Net interest4418PBT1,918928HSBC PBT1,596928Taxation-553-288Net profit1,332627HSBC net profit984627Cash flow summary(GBPm)Cash flow from operations1,149542Capex-416-743Cash flow from investment-179-663Dividends-219-248Change in net debt-1141,051FCF equity733-201Balance sheet summary(GBPm)Intangible fixed assets796796Tangible fixed assets1,8592,239Current assets14,14412,774Cash & others6,3386,338Total assets18,73317,663Operating liabilities8,3106,726Gross debt3,5124,563Net debt-2,858-1,807Shareholders' funds4,4223,962Invested capital2,6293,223Ratio, growth and per share analysisYear to12/2024a12/2025e12/2026eY-o-y % changeRevenue-26.2-3.2EBITDA-41.9-36.7Operating profit-43.6-41.4PBT-60.7-51.6HSBC EPS-43.5-30.4Ratios (%)Revenue/IC (x)10.88.2ROIC40.418.2ROE23.715.0ROA6.73.4EBITDA margin7.34.8Operating profit margin6.33.8EBITDA/net interest (x)Net debt/equity-59.4-41.4Net debt/EBITDA (x)-1.6-1.6CF from operations/net debtPer share data(GBPp)EPS Rep (diluted)25.1012.90HSBC EPS (diluted)18.5512.90DPS4.505.49Book value87.5287.84Financials & valuation:Centrica Recent updates on guidance and changes to estimates◆British GasResidential.Centrica pointed towarmer weather in April and May, followingaverage conditions in 1Q,as having a negative impact on customer demand and leading toprocurement issues, suggesting earnings will be towards the lower end of the GBP150-250mn range (vs HSBCe: GBP185mn). One silver lining is that organic customer numbersare reported to be up YTD, reversing the steady attrition over the last five years.◆Centrica Energy.A weak performance for gas & power trading is the primary reason whyCentrica Energy is expected to be towards the bottom end of the GBP250-350mn range(HSBCe: GBP260mn) and follows a considerable slowdown in 2H 24 (GBP75mn). We cautionthat profitability is expected to be heav