JD Wetherspoon (JDW LN): 买入评级，目标价800便士

Disclosures & DisclaimerThis report must be read with the disclosures and theanalyst certifications inthe Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it.LFL growthaccelerates again and appears to be volume-driven,with strong performance over bank holidaysUpside risk remains given strong trading momentum coupledwith good visibility oncostsMaintain Buy with 800p TP (unchanged): shares trade belowhistoricalmultiples with potential for further buybacksLFL strength persists:The companycontinues to report encouraging top-linegrowth,with Q3 LFL growth of +5.6%. Within the period, LFL growth acceleratedfrom +5.0% in the first 7 weeks to +6.3% implied in the last 6 weeks to 27 April.Thisacceleration looks to be volume-drivenas we think there have been no further priceincreases since the end ofJanuary. The company points toparticular strengthrecorded over recent bank holidayweekends asitcapitaliseson favourable weatherover March and April.Volume growth is undisclosed, but as noted inUK Pubs:Round two(14 Feb2025), we believe JDW is outperforming here vs the market.Continue to see upside risk:YTDLFL yoy growth of +5.1% is inline with FY25eHSBC/consensus (+5.0%;however: 1)recent growth of+6.3%(6 weeks to 27 April)istracking comfortablyahead;and2)on a 2-yearstack,YTDgrowthof 13.8%isrunning 0.8ppts ahead (HSBC/consensus+13.0%).We estimate that each 1pptincrease could result in a 9% benefit to FY25e PBTgiven the operational gearing ofthe business.Thisencouraging trading momentum coupledwith strongvisibility onutility costs (largely fixed) andunchangedlabour inflation (GBP60m incrementalcosts p.a. from April 2025),supports our optimistic outlook for the year.Room for optimism elsewhere: Whilst our FY25 net debt forecast rises, this islargely the result ofopportunisticshare buybacks, with leverage set tosteadilydecline from 3.7x in FY25e to 3.1x in FY27e.The number ofsitesalsolooks to havenow reached an inflection point, with 6-7 pubs set to open in FY25e followed by afurther 10 in FY26e, following a period of decline from FY15 onwards, removing apriorrevenuedrag. Looking ahead, thereappearsto be plenty of growth as JDWlooks to reach 1,000 managed sites (796 sites currently)longer term,with potentialforfurtherfranchised sites,which are performing well.Maintain Buy with 800p TP:The shares have performed well this year (+21% YTD vs.FTSE 250 +2%).However, theycontinue to look cheaponaFY25e EV/EBIT of 11x vspre-pandemic of c.14x and its two-year average of 12x.This is despiteparticularlystrongtradingmomentum with a cleartrack record ofoutperformance vs the sector. Weseepotential forthe shares to movehigher on top-line momentum, with potential for furtherbuybacks as the company has been actively acquiring shares (GBP41.7m boughtYTD).JD Wetherspoon(JDW LN)Buy:Another good update ◆◆◆ 2Financial statementsYear to07/2024a07/2025e07/2026e07/2027eProfit & loss summary(GBPm)Revenue2,0362,1172,231EBITDA246253269Depreciation & amortisation-107-110-116Operating profit/EBIT139144153Net interest-64-64-63PBT638090HSBC PBT748090Taxation-12-20-23Net profit596068HSBC net profit596068Cash flowsummary(GBPm)Cash flow from operations160163196Capex-187-191-189Cash flow from investment-99-128-126Dividends-15-19-15Change in net debt-765-15FCF equity-10-2212Balance sheet summary(GBPm)Intangible fixed assets61015Tangible fixed assets1,3751,4271,472Current assets1226180Cash & others57-88Total assets1,9041,9001,968Operating liabilities303298314Gross debt1,0881,0881,088Net debt1,0691,1341,118Shareholders' funds402406457Invested capital1,1431,2081,245Ratio, growth and per share analysisYear to07/2024a07/2025e07/2026e07/2027eY-o-y % changeRevenue5.74.05.4EBITDA12.33.06.1Operating profit30.22.96.7PBT-33.527.513.2HSBC EPS77.05.913.2Ratios (%)Revenue/IC (x)1.81.81.8ROIC10.09.29.4ROE14.414.815.7ROA5.85.75.9EBITDA margin12.112.012.1Operating profit margin6.96.86.9EBITDA/net interest (x)3.94.04.3Net debt/equity266.0279.6244.7Net debt/EBITDA (x)4.34.54.2CF from operations/net debt15.014.317.5Per share data(GBPp)EPS Rep (diluted)46.8049.5856.14HSBC EPS (diluted)46.8049.5856.14DPS12.0012.4014.04Book value321.31335.53378.22424.45Financials & valuation:JD Wetherspoon Changes to estimatesWe amend our forecasts following the Q3 update on 7 May. We now assume FY25epre-IFRS-16net debt of GBP730m (updated guidance GBP720-740m) from GBP686m, as we factor inhigher YTD share buy-backs of GBP42m (from GBP12m).FY26e revenue increasesslightlyaswe now assume 10 openings (from 7 previously).Changes to estimates (Post IFRS-16)_________FY25e_________OldLFL Growth5.0%Revenue2,117EBITDA253Operating profit144PBT80EPS49.6Net debt (exclderivatives)1090Source:HSBC estimatesValuation & risksWe value JDW using EV/EBIT methodology (unchanged). We use an FY25e EV/EBIT multipleof 12x (unchanged), in line with its two-year averagemultiple of c.12x, reflecting strong top-linemomentum and our expectation that JDW continues to take market share. We adjust forpension and deri