克朗斯维克（CWK LN）：买入评级，目标价上调至6000便士

Issuer of report:HSBC Bank plcView HSBC Global Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.comHSBC Global Research Podcasts| Listen to our insightsMAINTAIN BUYTARGET PRICE(GBp)PREVIOUS TARGET(GBp)6,0005,500SHARE PRICE(GBp)UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE5,230+14.7%(as of16 May 2025)MARKET DATAMarket cap(GBPm)2,834Market cap (USDm)3,7623m ADTV (USDm)6FINANCIALS AND RATIOS(GBp)Year to03/2025aHSBC EPS268.63HSBC EPS (prev)266.58Change (%)0.8Consensus EPS264.58PE (x)19.5Dividend yield (%)1.9EV/EBITDA (x)10.3ROE (%)15.452-WEEK PRICE(GBp)Source:LSEGIBES, HSBC estimatesMax Church*Analyst, UK MidCapsHSBC Bankplcmax.church@hsbc.com+44 20 7991 3103Matthew Lloyd*Head of UK MidCap Equity ResearchHSBC Bank plcmatthew.lloyd@hsbcib.com+44 20 7991 6799Jyothi U*, CFAAssociateBangalore* Employed by anon-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulationsEquitiesFood ProductsUnited Kingdom05/2411/24Target price: 6000High: 5370 Low: 4260 Current: 5230 ◆◆◆ Free floatBBGRIC03/2026e282.54272.49277.61 Find out more03/2027e296.89288.433.72.9293.5018.517.62.02.19.68.914.914.305/25 2Financial statementsYear to03/2025a03/2026e03/2027eProfit & loss summary(GBPm)Revenue2,7232,9163,089EBITDA293310331Depreciation & amortisation-86-90-100Operating profit/EBIT207219232Net interest-9-13-15PBT181197207HSBC PBT198206217Taxation-47-52-54Net profit134145153HSBC net profit147155162Cash flow summary(GBPm)Cash flow from operations214256255Capex-138-146-154Cash flow from investment-161-178-155Dividends-50-57-60Change in net debt71-21-41FCF equity76110101Balance sheet summary(GBPm)Intangible fixed assets211223220Tangible fixed assets734805860Current assets587634682Cash & others640Total assets1,5311,6621,762Operating liabilities461462460Gross debt179191169Net debt173152111Shareholders' funds9881,0841,185Invested capital1,1971,2721,332Ratio, growth and per share analysisYear to03/2025a03/2026e03/2027eY-o-y % changeRevenue4.87.15.9EBITDA9.95.67.1Operating profit11.86.15.7PBT14.88.65.2HSBC EPS11.15.25.1Ratios (%)Revenue/IC (x)2.42.42.4ROIC13.613.113.1ROE15.414.914.3ROA9.79.79.6EBITDA margin10.810.610.7Operating profit margin7.67.57.5EBITDA/net interest (x)31.923.922.2Net debt/equity17.514.09.3Net debt/EBITDA (x)0.60.50.3CF from operations/net debt123.7168.6230.5Pershare data(GBp)EPS Rep (diluted)245.90265.31279.03HSBC EPS (diluted)268.63282.54296.89DPS101.00106.20111.60Book value1,837.062,016.502,204.50Financials & valuation:Cranswick Source: HSBCNote:Priced at close of 16 May 2025 Our case in picturesRevenue (GBPm) and growth (%)Source: Company reports, HSBC estimatesFree cash flow generation (GBPm)Source: Company reports, HSBC estimates12-month forward PE historicalSource:LSEGDatastream2,3232,5992,7232,91616%12%5%7%9001,2001,5001,8002,1002,4002,7003,0003,3003,600FY23FY24 FY25 FY26eFY27eFY28eRevenue (LHS)82.6123.775.8107.90.020.040.060.080.0100.0120.0140.0FY23FY24FY25FY26eFY27e FY28e101214161820222426May-20May-21May-22May-2312m fwd PE-1SD FY25 in more detailAnotherrecordset ofresultsHaving delivered a record set ofresults,which includedthreeguidance upgradesin FY24,Cranswick outdiditselfyet again by delivering recordperformancein FY25.FY25 revenue was up4.8%y-o-y(+6.4% LFL)and0.8% aboveour estimate.Promisingly, top-linegrowthwasalmost exclusively driven by volume increases across all core UK food categories (FreshPork, Convenience, Gourmet, and Poultry). Standoutproduct revenuecategories included Gourmet(+8.8% y-o-y), Poultry (+20.3% y-o-y), and Pet (+47.8% y-o-y).Growing agricultural operations,strong capacity utilisation,and tight cost control ledto a50bp operating marginincreaseto7.6%,ahead of ourestimateand consensus (both7.4%). Adjustedpretaxprofit of GBP197.9m was up12.1% y-o-y and beat our estimates by3%. AdjustedEPS increased11.1% y-o-y and was0.8%ahead offorecastand consensus. A final dividend per share of76p was proposed,taking the full-yearpayoutto101p, up12.2%vsFY24 (90p).FCF conversion for the year was 101.6% and ROCEwas 18.5%. Net debt (includingIFRS 16)increased to GBP172.4m (FY24: GBP99.4m),due togreater working capital requirements.Results SummaryGBP, end-MarchFY24Revenue2,599.3EBITDA266.8Margin (%)10.3%EBIT185.1Margin (%)7.1%PBT176.6EPS(p)241.8DPS(p)Source:Company data, HSBC estimatesCategoryreview–Fresh PorkFresh Pork (24.2%ofgrouprevenue) grew 4%,reflecting strong volume acrossallchannels.Retail andwholesale revenue was up 2.8%(volume +5%) and export revenuewasup 10.2%,withincrementalvolumesreflectinga higher number of pigs processed.Export revenue wasfurtheraided bythereinstatement oftheNorfolk site’s China export license, albeit slightly offsetdue toaverage pork prices in China and other Far Eastern markets beinglowercompared tothe previous year.Cranswick hasnearlytrebled its ownpigproduction in the pastsixyears,withfinished pig numbers increasing 14%y-o-ywhilst maintaininga level of self-sufficiencycomfortably over 50%in pig farmingand 20% in pig feed milling. 90.0 FY25ChgHSBCFY25e2,723.34.8%2