印尼银行：2025年4月业绩

Issuer of report:The Hongkong and ShanghaiBanking Corporation Limited, Singapore BranchView HSBC Global Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.comListen to our insightsFind out moreHSBC Global Research PodcastsWeldon Sng*, CFAAnalyst, ASEAN Financials & Digital FinanceThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited,Singapore Branchweldon.sng@hsbc.com.sg+65 6658 2640Yash Taparia*AssociateBangalore* Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulationsEquitiesCommercial BanksIndonesia_____ P/B (x)_____ Div Yield (%) __2025e2026e2025e2026e4.23.93.43.62.12.07.88.51.61.56.36.71.00.96.16.53.43.10.00.0 ◆◆◆◆◆◆◆Upside/downsideMkt Cap(USDbn)_____ PE (x)___2025e+13.2%70.420.7+8.3%41.010.9+16.3%30.19.5+18.5%10.28.2+17.2%1.5n.a. ___ ROE (%) __2025e2026e20.720.319.220.318.017.712.612.74.87.4 2026e 2Result reportsBBRI: lower rates & transformation story, 01 May 2025BMRI: building a franchise for the long run, 30 April 2025BBNI: NIM squeeze, but asset quality confidence, 29 April 2025BBCA: stable quarter, 24 April 2025Indonesia banks: management overhaul, 28 March 2025April2025 monthly bank-only resultsApril2025 monthly bank-only resultsBank-only (in IDRtrn)AssetsLoansDepositCASACASASARFDCASA ratio %EquityLDR %Net Interest IncomeFeesOther non-IITotal revenueOpexCIR %PPOPProvisionsPBTNet incomeCredit costs (bp)Net write-off (bp)Provisions % loansNIM %ROE %ROA %FY'25 consensusResults % consensusSource: Company data, HSBC, Visible Alphaconsensus; Notes: 1) All data are bank-only; 2) All ratios are calculated numbers; 3) IEA for NIM calculation is calculated for all banks in a standard way and maynot be comparable withreported numbers _________Aprilmonth only____________________y-o-y change____________BBCABBRIBMRIBBNIBBCA1,4561,8611,9331,089+5.9%9231,2401,308758+12.8%1,1481,4001,415812+4.4%9519081,103584+6.0%365371578329+7.2%586537525255+5.2%51.0%38.3%37.1%31.5%+0.4ppt196492312228-2.7%82.9%64.8%78.0%72.0%+1.2ppt243284230152+9.8%80%89%92%93%+6.0ppt6.59.16.43.1+6.0%1.51.71.50.8+6.7%0.42.11.00.9-62.6%8.512.88.84.7-2.6%2.54.63.72.2+6.1%29.1%36.0%42.2%46.5%2.4ppt6.08.25.12.5-5.8%0.43.30.80.7-12.2%5.64.94.31.8-5.7%4.53.93.61.5-8.2%5932272119-171126572268+83.67%6.00%3.09%5.15%-0.6ppt5.69%6.18%4.60%3.75%+0.0ppt22.8%16.9%19.0%11.5%-4.5ppt3.7%2.5%2.2%1.7%-0.6ppt58.759.556.523.792%87%82%76% Monthly net profit breakdownIndonesia banks’ monthly net profit breakdownSource: Company data, HSBCSource: Company data, HSBCSource: Company data, HSBCSource: Company data, HSBC6.35.96.36.26.46.36.61.41.41.51.41.51.51.50.30.40.31.10.40.10.8-2.3-2.5-2.8-2.3-2.5-2.5-2.8-0.2-0.4-0.3-0.5-0.30.7-0.14.53.84.04.94.44.94.9-5051015Jan-24Feb-24Mar-24Apr-24May-24Jun-24NIIFeesOther non-IIBBCA(IDR trn)9.79.19.78.68.89.29.31.71.71.91.81.91.91.71.61.73.11.84.52.72.8-4.6-2.0-5.4-4.0-6.2-4.3-6.2-2.0-6.5-2.4-3.2-3.9-1.4-3.84.83.25.74.04.16.33.2-10-50510152025Jan-24Feb-24Mar-24Apr-24May-24Jun-24NIIFeesOther non-II(IDR trn)BBRI5.95.96.26.16.36.36.51.21.21.61.21.41.71.51.10.80.90.91.31.81.3-2.9-2.8-2.9-2.6-2.8-2.9-3.0-0.6-1.0-0.9-0.8-0.7-0.7-0.73.83.34.03.94.65.04.6-6-3036912Jan-24Feb-24Mar-24Apr-24May-24Jun-24NIIFeesOther non-IIBMRI(IDRtrn)3.12.93.23.03.13.43.50.90.80.90.80.80.90.90.60.61.10.70.91.60.9-2.1-1.9-2.1-2.1-2.2-2.2-2.4-0.6-0.6-0.5-0.5-0.6-0.5-0.51.51.62.21.61.72.01.9-4-20246810Jan-24Feb-24Mar-24Apr-24May-24Jun-24NIIFeesOther non-IIBBNI(IDR trn) Net profit vs consensus trendsIndonesia banks’ monthly net profit as a percentage of consensus net profit estimateSource: Company data, Visible Alpha consensus, HSBC; Notes: We have adjusted BBCA consolidated net profit onaccountof dividend received to the bank-only entityIndonesia banks’ YTD net profit as a percentage of consensus net profit estimateSource: Company data, Visible Alpha consensus, HSBC; Notes: We have adjusted BBCA consolidated net profit onaccountof dividend received to the bank-only entity40%60%80%100%120%140%Jan-24Feb-24Mar-24Apr-24May-24Jun-24BBCABBRIMonthlyprofit % of consensus60%70%80%90%100%110%Jan-24Feb-24Mar-24Apr-24May-24Jun-24BBCABBRIYTDprofit % of consensus Consensus forecasts are on aconsolidated basis, butmonthly results are on abank-onlybasis. We adjustedthe bank-only results upassuming the latestproportions of subsidiaryincome are constant, andthen compared the result ofthat with consolidatedconsensus estimates SRBI issuance and yieldNet change in SRBISource: Bloomberg, Bank Indonesia, HSBC; net change forFeb 2025 is close of 0SRBI yieldsSource: Bloomberg, HSBC-50050100150200Sep-23Oct-23Nov-23Dec-23Jan-24Feb-24Mar-24Net change in SRBI (IDR tn, LHS)5.0%5.5%6.0%6.5%7.0%7.5%8.0%Jan-24Feb-24Mar-24Apr-24May-24Jun-24BI rate6m SRBI yield Inflation & fiscal spendsVolatile food inflation has come down significantlySource: Bloomberg, HSBCFiscal spend hasbeen ramping up since 2H24Source: Bloomberg, HSBC-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%Jan-24Feb-24Mar-24Apr-24May-24CPI %yoy-300-200-1000100200Apr-21Jul-21Oct-21Jan-22Apr-22Jul-22Fisc