第一季度企业调查：资本支出保持坚挺

Restricted - External Naohiko Baba+ 81 3 4530 1378naohiko.baba@barclays.comBSJL, JapanRyuichiro Hashimoto+81 3 4530 1372ryuichiro.hashimoto@barclays.comBSJL, Japan FIGURE 1. Profits remain elevated(profits/profit margins)FIGURE 2. Profits turn positive, led by improvement in sales volume(decomposition of current profits)-40-30-20-10010203040-40-30-20-1001020304016171819202122232425Sales volumeLabor costTerms of trade, etc.Current profits% y/y% y/ySource: MoF, Barclays ResearchFIGURE 3. Breakeven sales point by sector (as a percentage of sales)FIGURE 4. Breakeven sales point by sector (as a percentage of sales)081216202460657075808590951006065707580859095100808590950005101520LargeMediumSmall%%Source: MoF, Barclays Research•Capital investment excludingsoftwarerose +6.9% (+3.1%) and capex includingsoftwarerose+6.4% y/y (-0.2%), with both exceeding market expectations (+5.3% and +3.8%, respectively).In manufacturing (+4.2% in Q1, +0.8% in Q4), investment was negative in transport machineryand information/communications equipment, but this wasoffsetby larger increases in foodand chemicals. In non-manufacturing (+7.6%, -0.8%), capex increased in many industriessuch as transport/postal services and wholesale/retail. Capex remained firm on support fromsolid earnings and measures to address labor needs, but tracked below FY24 plans due inpart to supply-side constraints (eg, labor shortage) that led to investment delays. One focusgoing forward will be any impact on business sentiment and capex from uncertainty aroundthetariffpolicies of the Trump administration.•Based on the latest corporate survey results, we expect Q1 real GDP growth to be at -0.7% q/qsaar in the second preliminary data, unchanged from the initial release, with the positivecontribution from private inventory investment shrinking slightly, while private capex isrevised slightly upward to +0.3pp q/q (from +0.2pp). We continue to expect growth of +0.8%for FY24, +0.5% for FY25 and +0.6% for FY26.2 FIGURE 5. Labor shareSource: BoJ, Bloomberg, Barclays ResearchFIGURE 7. Ordinary profits0510152025309597 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23Large companiesMedium companiesSmall companiesJPYtrnSource: BoJ, Bloomberg, Barclays Research2 June 2025 Source: BoJ, Bloomberg, Barclays ResearchFIGURE 8. Added value01020304050607080901009597 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23Large companiesMedium companiesSmall companiesJPYtrnSource: BoJ, Bloomberg, Barclays Research Analyst(s) Certification(s):We, Ryuichiro Hashimoto and Naohiko Baba, hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our personal viewsabout any or all of the subject securities or issuers referred to in this research report and (2) no part of our compensation was, is or will be directly orindirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report.Important Disclosures:Barclays Research is produced by the Investment Bank of Barclays Bank PLC and itsaffiliates(collectively and each individually, "Barclays").All authors contributing to this research report are Research Analysts unless otherwise indicated. The publication date at the top of the report reflectsthe local time where the report was produced and maydifferfrom the release date provided in GMT.Availability of Disclosures:For current important disclosures regarding any issuers which are the subject of this research report please refer to https://publicresearch.barclays.com or alternatively send a written request to: Barclays Research Compliance, 745 Seventh Avenue, 13th Floor, New York, NY10019 or call +1-212-526-1072.Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of itsaffiliatesdoes and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investorsshould be aware that Barclays may have a conflict of interest that couldaffectthe objectivity of this report. Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of itsaffiliatesregularly trades, generally deals as principal and generally provides liquidity (as market maker or otherwise) in the debt securities that are thesubject of this research report (and related derivatives thereof). Barclays trading desks may have either a long and / or short position in such securities,other financial instruments and / or derivatives, which may pose a conflict with the interests of investing customers. Where permitted and subject toappropriate information barrier restrictions, Barclays fixed income research analysts regularly interact with its trading desk personnel regardingcurrent market conditions and prices. Barclays fixed income research analysts receive compensation based on various factors including, but notlimited to, the quality of their work, the overall performance of the firm (including the profitability of the Investment Banking Department), theprofitability and revenues of the Markets business and the potential interest of the firm's investing clients in research with respect to the asset classcovered by the analyst. To