亚洲量化策略：来自欧洲和中东市场的投资者反馈- 20张关键图表

www.bernsteinresearch.com ...[continue]Our preferred trade ie. Japan domestics remain a key area of interest,however, many global funds are unable to increase exposure meaningfully due to size/liquidity constraints. As always, Yen was a point of discussion (most investors have 140as the reference point for the near-term) and the record high net long positioning on Yensurprised everyone. The record high bond yields in Japan (30yr yields at 3%) was also a bigconcern as it could potentially reverse almost 80bn USD of Japan flow that has gone intoUS equities since 2022(Exhibit 5-Exhibit 6)China:The sentiment towards China was better compared to the last visit in Oct ‘24,however there are still concerns around geopolitics, weak macro, lack of stimulus andprice-war. No near-term catalyst is making investors less interested in China, though mostfunds own China big tech names and consumer names. The preference from Middle Eastinvestors tends to be H-shares and one distinct difference across both regions was lack ofexcitement towards IP related names such as Popmart, which has been a favorite amongAsian investors and has been in ourquality consumer basket. We turned neutral onChina in March, due to tariff uncertainty, expectations of renewed downgrade cycle andlack of global flow as domestic flow reached record highs but with hopes of stimulus andincremental improvement on tariffs. Hence, we maintain a balanced portfolio of low voldomestics+ high growth stocks, which have both done quite well.(Exhibit 7-Exhibit 9)India:Unlike April, India is no longer the consensus long. While most GEM funds haveadded India exposure, particularly financials in the last few months; adding India at currentlevels is becoming difficult for most investors. Weak consumption, elevated valuationsand financials becoming a crowded space were the most heard investor concerns. One ofthe key reasons for our positive view on India since March was bottoming-out of earningsdowngrade for some sectors. Looking at the most recent data, we would argue that theearnings tailwind for India is getting stronger with all sectors showing a bottom, exceptDiscretionary ex-autos and Financials ex-Banks. Even for tech, it's time to add backexposure as consensus has reach record bearishness. We remain positive on low vol andvalue names in India which have performed the best, YTD.(Exhibit 10-Exhibit 11)Korea, Taiwan & Indonesia:We have been constructive on KR since the beginning of theyear driven by inflection in valuations and earnings. It has been a contrarian call, more soamidst tariff uncertainty; however, the breadth of earnings recovery made us remain OWKR, which has been the best Asian market YTD, up17.5%. Finally, we see investor interestin KR picking-up, led by expectations of political stability, boost to corporate value-upprogram and memory cycle recovering. TW has been a pain trade as GEM funds have beenquite UW, while the market has recovered sharply led by AI story coming back. TW wasdiscussed actively in our meetings, however we find it difficult to become constructive withongoing earnings downgrades across sectors. We recommend selective exposure withintech and high yield names (seehere,here). We were also asked about Indonesia- whileoverall signs of earnings inflection are weak, sectors like Financials/Materials now look wellpositioned.(Exhibit 12-Exhibit 15)Key macro debates:Global funds are most concerned about stagflation risk for US,rotation out of US and global markets no longer pricing-in a slowdown (we would argue thisto be a concern for markets like US/IN/AU). The sharp currency moves seen in Asia alsoremains a point of contention as it could exacerbate the trend of domestic money stayingback in their own markets. Since 2022, c.125bn USD of cumulative flow has gone intoUS equities from Japan, Korea, TW and China which could be at risk of reversal.(Exhibit16-Exhibit 18)We believe the rotation out of US has legs in the short-term, however, weare not convinced that it is structural (seehere).2 DETAILSGLOBAL FLOW ACROSS KEY MARKETS & GEM FUNDS ACTIVE ALLOCATIONEXHIBIT 1:In 2025, flow into US is still significantly higher than any other regions, standing at ~178bn USD vs. 72bntowards EU and 8.7bn towards Japan. Since markets bottom on 9th April, Europe has taken the highest inflow of38.5bn USD followed by US (5.5bn USD), TW (4.2bn USD) and India (1.6bn USD) while Chinese equities has seen-13.5bn USD outflow. Japan saw its worst weekly outflow of the year last week of -11bn USD while flow towardsChina seem to be picking-up (1.2bn USD last week)-8-3271217222701/01/2025Data till May 28th Source: EPFR, Bernstein analysisASIA QUANTITATIVE STRATEGY 08/01/202515/01/202522/01/202529/01/202505/02/202512/02/202519/02/202526/02/202505/03/202512/03/202519/03/202526/03/202502/04/202509/04/202516/04/20252025 Weekly Market Flow (USD Bn)ChinaIndiaJapanKoreaTaiwan2025. Data shows flow into equities for each market using mutual fund and ETF data -25-15-551525