新兴市场信用监测：我们总结了业绩和估值，并强调了亚洲、新兴欧洲、中东、非洲和拉丁美洲主权、准主权和公司债券的交易机会和错位情况。
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Fabian Herold+44 (0)20 7773 0753fabian.herold@barclays.comBarclays, UKAndreas Kolbe+44 (0) 20 3134 3134andreas.kolbe@barclays.comBarclays, UKAnsel Tessitore+1 212 412 5982ansel.tessitore@barclays.comBCI, US
EM credit at a glanceFIGURE 1. Global EM USD aggregate: Spread historyNote: Dark blue line is 3mma. Shaded area encompasses 3mma +/- 1 standarddeviation.Source: Barclays ResearchFIGURE 3. Global EM USD Aggregate vs US credit50100150200250300350400450500202120222023EM USD AggregateSource: Barclays Research2 June 2025
Note: Best- and worst-performing asset class in each period highlighted. Inrespective currency.Source: Barclays Research
EM sovereignsFIGURE 7. Global EM USD sovereigns: Spread historyNote: Dark blue line is 3mma. Shaded area encompasses 3mma +/- 1 standarddeviation.Source: Barclays ResearchFIGURE 9. Sovereign spread vs rating (10y in blue, 30y in grey)0100200300400500600700QATARADGBKSACHILEPOLANDINDONURUGUAAAASource: Barclays Research2 June 2025
PERUREPHUNMEXROMANIPANAMADOMREPBRAZILSOAFTURKEYCOLOMBBBBB
GUATEMCOSTARBHRAINKENINTEGYPTB
Source: Barclays ResearchFIGURE 10. Sovereign bonds vs CDS basisCountryBONDBRAZILMEXICODOMREPTURKEYINDONESIAPHILIPPINESS.AFRICAPERUCHILECOLOMBIANote: Basis is CDS minus cash spread. 5y CDS used.Source: Barclays Research
FIGURE 11. Corps, quasis, and sovereigns: Average spreads todayNote: Scale is logarithmic. Sovereign duration is matched to those of corporates of the same country.Source: Barclays Research
EM sovereigns: Performance chips and relative valueFIGURE 12. We separate sovereigns into low- to high-beta categories based on their current spreads: Current spread, w/w and YTD changes, and one-year range of 10y benchmark bondsNote: Best performing credits with respective bucket in blue, worst in red. Small chart depicts spread history.Source: Barclays Research2 June 2025
FIGURE 16. 10y benchmark bond performance matrix: high-beta sovereigns; performance measured over the past 12 months. Relationshipsmore than 1.5 standard deviations from the one-year mean highlighted (green = cheap, red = rich, eg, green cell indicates that ticker inleftcolumn is cheap to ticker across top row).Note: Grey cells indicate lack of at least one year of data.Source: Barclays Research2 June 2025
EM corporates & quasi sovereignsFIGURE 17. Global EM USD corps + quasi: Spread historyNote: Dark blue line is 3mma. Shaded area encompasses 3mma +/- 1 standarddeviation.Source: Barclays ResearchFIGURE 19. Global average spread of corps/quasis vs sovereign0204060801001202021202220232024bpNote: This is the mediandifferentialof all corporates and quasi-sovereigns versustheir rating and tenor matched sovereign bond. Includes corps/quasis within 1ymaturity and two rating notches to sov. Includes new issues as they come.Source: Barclays ResearchFIGURE 21. EM corporate/quasi versus USdifferentials:Ratings-matched basisCompositionSpreadBRAZIL#NAME?CHILE#NAME?CHINA#NAME?COLOMBIA#NAME?KAZAKHSTAN#NAME?MEXICO#NAME?PERU#NAME?TURKEY#NAME?UNITED ARAB EMIRATES#NAME?GLOBAL EM CORPS#NAME?
