新兴市场信用监测：我们总结了业绩和估值，并强调了亚洲、新兴欧洲、中东、非洲和拉丁美洲主权、准主权和公司债券的交易机会和错位情况。

Restricted - External Fabian Herold+44 (0)20 7773 0753fabian.herold@barclays.comBarclays, UKAndreas Kolbe+44 (0) 20 3134 3134andreas.kolbe@barclays.comBarclays, UKAnsel Tessitore+1 212 412 5982ansel.tessitore@barclays.comBCI, US EM credit at a glanceFIGURE 1. Global EM USD aggregate: Spread historyNote: Dark blue line is 3mma. Shaded area encompasses 3mma +/- 1 standarddeviation.Source: Barclays ResearchFIGURE 3. Global EM USD Aggregate vs US credit50100150200250300350400450500202120222023EM USD AggregateSource: Barclays Research2 June 2025 Note: Best- and worst-performing asset class in each period highlighted. Inrespective currency.Source: Barclays Research EM sovereignsFIGURE 7. Global EM USD sovereigns: Spread historyNote: Dark blue line is 3mma. Shaded area encompasses 3mma +/- 1 standarddeviation.Source: Barclays ResearchFIGURE 9. Sovereign spread vs rating (10y in blue, 30y in grey)0100200300400500600700QATARADGBKSACHILEPOLANDINDONURUGUAAAASource: Barclays Research2 June 2025 PERUREPHUNMEXROMANIPANAMADOMREPBRAZILSOAFTURKEYCOLOMBBBBB GUATEMCOSTARBHRAINKENINTEGYPTB Source: Barclays ResearchFIGURE 10. Sovereign bonds vs CDS basisCountryBONDBRAZILMEXICODOMREPTURKEYINDONESIAPHILIPPINESS.AFRICAPERUCHILECOLOMBIANote: Basis is CDS minus cash spread. 5y CDS used.Source: Barclays Research FIGURE 11. Corps, quasis, and sovereigns: Average spreads todayNote: Scale is logarithmic. Sovereign duration is matched to those of corporates of the same country.Source: Barclays Research EM sovereigns: Performance chips and relative valueFIGURE 12. We separate sovereigns into low- to high-beta categories based on their current spreads: Current spread, w/w and YTD changes, and one-year range of 10y benchmark bondsNote: Best performing credits with respective bucket in blue, worst in red. Small chart depicts spread history.Source: Barclays Research2 June 2025 FIGURE 16. 10y benchmark bond performance matrix: high-beta sovereigns; performance measured over the past 12 months. Relationshipsmore than 1.5 standard deviations from the one-year mean highlighted (green = cheap, red = rich, eg, green cell indicates that ticker inleftcolumn is cheap to ticker across top row).Note: Grey cells indicate lack of at least one year of data.Source: Barclays Research2 June 2025 EM corporates & quasi sovereignsFIGURE 17. Global EM USD corps + quasi: Spread historyNote: Dark blue line is 3mma. Shaded area encompasses 3mma +/- 1 standarddeviation.Source: Barclays ResearchFIGURE 19. Global average spread of corps/quasis vs sovereign0204060801001202021202220232024bpNote: This is the mediandifferentialof all corporates and quasi-sovereigns versustheir rating and tenor matched sovereign bond. Includes corps/quasis within 1ymaturity and two rating notches to sov. Includes new issues as they come.Source: Barclays ResearchFIGURE 21. EM corporate/quasi versus USdifferentials:Ratings-matched basisCompositionSpreadBRAZIL#NAME?CHILE#NAME?CHINA#NAME?COLOMBIA#NAME?KAZAKHSTAN#NAME?MEXICO#NAME?PERU#NAME?TURKEY#NAME?UNITED ARAB EMIRATES#NAME?GLOBAL EM CORPS#NAME?<BBBBB<BBBBB<BBBB>A<BBBBBB>A<BBBBBB>A<BBBB>A<BBBB>ABBB<BBBBBB<BBBNote: We calculate the “equivalent US spread” by weighting the spread of US credit segments (from AAA to CCC) at each point in time (dynamically) to match each EMcountry’s composition.Source: Barclays Research2 June 2025 Source: Barclays ResearchFIGURE 20. EM corp/quasi spread ratio vs US: Rating-matched basis20202021Source: Barclays ResearchEquiv. USbp discount1821491129820825513019915417427011075141 Cheapest and richest quasi and corp bond to sovereignsFIGURE 22. Cheapest quasi-sovereigns vs their sovereigns (1y z-scorelevel)FIGURE 23. Richest quasi-sovereigns vs their sovereigns (1y z-scorelevel)QUASISOVKOBCOP 5.25 2029KOREA 3.5 2028EXCRTU 9 2027TURKEY 6 2027KDB 2 2031KOREA 3.5 2028KDB 1.625 2031KOREA 3.5 2028EIBKOR 1.375 2031KOREA 3.5 2028KOROIL 2.375 2031KOREA 3.5 2028PIFKSA 5.125 2053KSA 5.25 2050KORGAS 2 2031KOREA 3.5 2028PETBRA 7.25 2044BRAZIL 5 2045ISRELE 7.75 2027ISRAEL 3.25 2028BONDNote: For changes, blue indicates tightening, red widening.Note: For changes, blue indicates tightening, red widening.Source: Barclays ResearchSource: Barclays ResearchFIGURE 24. Cheapest corporates vs their sovereigns (1y z-score level)FIGURE 25. Richest corporates vs their sovereigns (1y z-score level)CORPSOVDIFFΔZAMBIBZ 9.875 2031BRAZIL 4.5 20296452102.6GTE 9.5 2029COLOM 4.5 2029173413562.6VESTL 9.75 2029TURKEY 7.625 202910368072.6BRASKM 7.25 2033BRAZIL 8.25 20343301362.5MOVCHI 3.537 2031CHILE 3.24 20287544652.5SECBPM 5.5 2029BSNZPM 8.6 202741272.4BORRNO 10.375 2030MEX 8.3 203111978432.4ORBIA 2.875 2031MEX 8.3 2031151592.3BIMBOA 6.4 2034MEX 6.75 2034-44292.3BRASKM 4.5 2030BRAZIL 4.5 20293941782.31821251318538818951290244139518208645393937701952125218282BONDOAS & 1MΔMETRICSCORPSOV1Y RANGECORPSOVCITNAT 5.25 2029KOREA 3.5 2028CCOLAT 4.5 2029TURKEY 6.125 2028KEBHNB 5.375 2029KOREA 3.5 2028WOORIB 2 2027KOREA 2.75 2027WOORIB 4.75 2027KOREA