CPI较低，但首次降息的时间仍不确定

Restricted - External Ercan Erguzel+44 (0) 20 3555 2564ercan.erguzel@barclays.comBarclays, UK We still expect the CBT will deliver a 200bp cut to both the base rate and the corridor atthe next MPC meeting on 19 June, against consensus:Today's lower-than-expected CPI printalso strengthens the argument for a cut in June, in our view. Additionally, the ongoingslowdown in economic activity and employment and the return of non-resident inflows inrecent weeks also supports the idea of resuming an easing cycle. That said, the CBT stillmaintains its funding rate at the upper band of the corridor at 49% (Figure 2). If we don't seethis rate moderate towards the base rate in the next two weeks, we think the CBT is very likelyto remain on hold in June and wait until the next meeting on 24 July to resume easing cycle.The communication from the CBT tomorrow related to the May CPI print will be key tounderstanding its view on inflation.2 FIGURE 3. Details of inflation in May 2025Source: Haver Analytics, Barclays Research3 June 2025 Analyst(s) Certification(s):I, Ercan Erguzel, hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about any or all of the subjectsecurities or issuers referred to in this research report and (2) no part of my compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specificrecommendations or views expressed in this research report.Important Disclosures:Barclays Research is produced by the Investment Bank of Barclays Bank PLC and itsaffiliates(collectively and each individually, "Barclays").All authors contributing to this research report are Research Analysts unless otherwise indicated. The publication date at the top of the report reflectsthe local time where the report was produced and maydifferfrom the release date provided in GMT.Availability of Disclosures:For current important disclosures regarding any issuers which are the subject of this research report please refer to https://publicresearch.barclays.com or alternatively send a written request to: Barclays Research Compliance, 745 Seventh Avenue, 13th Floor, New York, NY10019 or call +1-212-526-1072.Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of itsaffiliatesdoes and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investorsshould be aware that Barclays may have a conflict of interest that couldaffectthe objectivity of this report. Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of itsaffiliatesregularly trades, generally deals as principal and generally provides liquidity (as market maker or otherwise) in the debt securities that are thesubject of this research report (and related derivatives thereof). Barclays trading desks may have either a long and / or short position in such securities,other financial instruments and / or derivatives, which may pose a conflict with the interests of investing customers. Where permitted and subject toappropriate information barrier restrictions, Barclays fixed income research analysts regularly interact with its trading desk personnel regardingcurrent market conditions and prices. Barclays fixed income research analysts receive compensation based on various factors including, but notlimited to, the quality of their work, the overall performance of the firm (including the profitability of the Investment Banking Department), theprofitability and revenues of the Markets business and the potential interest of the firm's investing clients in research with respect to the asset classcovered by the analyst. To the extent that any historical pricing information was obtained from Barclays trading desks, the firm makes norepresentation that it is accurate or complete. All levels, prices and spreads are historical and do not necessarily represent current market levels, pricesor spreads, some or all of which may have changed since the publication of this document. Barclays Research Department produces various types ofresearch including, but not limited to, fundamental analysis, equity-linked analysis, quantitative analysis, and trade ideas. Recommendations andtrade ideas contained in one type of Barclays Research maydifferfrom those contained in other types of Barclays Research, whether as a result ofdifferingtime horizons, methodologies, or otherwise.In order to access Barclays Statement regarding Research Dissemination Policies and Procedures, please refer to https://publicresearch.barclays.com/S/RD.htm. In order to access Barclays Research Conflict Management Policy Statement, please refer to: https://publicresearch.barclays.com/S/CM.htm.Disclosure(s) regarding Information SourcesBloomberg® is a trademark and service mark of Bloomberg Finance L.P. and itsaffiliates(collectively “Bloomberg”) and the Bloomberg Indices aretrademarks of Bloomberg. Bloomberg or Bloomberg’s licensors own all proprietary rights in the Bloomberg Indices. Bloomberg does not approve orendorse this material, or guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any infor