生猪周报：降重预期强 远月合约价格偏强运行

另存为PDF分享生猪周报| 2025-06-03作者：史香迎生猪分析师期货从业资格：F03086321交易咨询资格：Z0019355邮箱地址：shixy@hrrdqh.com联系方式：0371-69106756 一、期货端——主力合约基差情况市场目前认为养殖端大概率在6、7月份进行降重，虽利空当下，但利好后市，故生猪主力合约（LH2509）震荡偏强调整。类别指标名称2025-05-30基准地出栏价(元/公斤)河南14.55期货合约收盘价(元/吨)01合约1379503合约1290005合约1297007合约1320509合约1360511合约13410主力合约基差(元/吨)基准地基差945 生猪主力合约基差(元/吨)-5,000-4,000-3,000-2,000-1,00001,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,00001-0201-2902-2503-2204-1805-1706-1220222023945945数据来源：Wind、涌益咨询、融达期货2025-05-2314.2135351287514295132051351513180685 一、期货端——各合约价格变化情况10,00012,00014,00016,00018,00020,00022,00024,00026,00028,00030,0002021-01-082021-04-292021-08-162021-12-062022-03-252022-07-14降重预期下，远月合约价格震荡偏强运行。 一、期货端——月间价差变化降重预期驱动下，7-9合约反套走势。01-03合约价差(元/吨)-3,000-2,500-2,000-1,500-1,000-50005001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,00003-2704-2906-0307-0508-0609-0710-1711-1812-2001-222022-20232023-20242024-20252025-2026895895-3,000-2,500-2,000-1,500-1,000-5005001,0001,5002,00007-09合约价差(元/吨)-3,000-2,500-2,000-1,500-1,000-50005001,0001,5002,00010-0811-0812-0901-1002-1203-1404-1505-1906-2007-22022-20232023-20242024-2025-400-400-1,500-1,200-900-600-3003006009001,2001,5001,8002,1002,400 一、期货端——月间价差变化降重预期驱动下，7-11合约反套走势。01-05合约价差(元/吨)-3,000-2,000-1,00001,0002,0003,0004,0005,00005-2706-1907-1208-0408-2709-2010-2011-1212-0512-282022202320242025825825-4,000-3,500-3,000-2,500-2,000-1,500-1,000-5005001,0001,5002,00007-11合约价差(元/吨)-3,500-3,000-2,500-2,000-1,500-1,000-50005001,0001,5002,0002,5003,00011-2612-2201-1802-1403-1104-0705-0606-0106-2707-22021-20222022-20232023-20242024-2025-205-205-2,000-1,500-1,000-5005001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,000 二、现货端——猪价与宰量本周受出栏节奏调整和端午备货影响，屠宰量先跌后升，猪价震荡调整为主。全国生猪出栏价(元/公斤)91215182124273033363901-0101-2702-2203-1904-1405-1006-0507-0107-2708-2209-172021202220232024202514.4414.44 10-1311-0812-0412-3 二、现货端——区域价差河南仍属于高价区。-0.5-0.4-0.3-0.2-0.100.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.901-01广东-河南毛猪价差(元/公斤)-2-1.5-1-0.500.511.522.533.501-0102-0903-1904-2706-0507-1408-2209-3011-0812-1720222023202420250.920.92-4-3.5-3-2.5-2-1.5-1-0.500.5101-01辽宁-河南毛猪价差(元/公斤)-2.4-2.1-1.8-1.5-1.2-0.9-0.6-0.300.30.60.91.201-0102-0903-1904-2706-0507-1408-2209-3011-0812-172022202320242025-0.44-0.44 二、现货端——肥标价差肥标价差震荡调整。150KG-标猪价差(元/斤)-0.2-0.100.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.801-0202-0103-0203-2704-2105-1606-1307-1408-1720222023202420250.040.04200KG-标猪价差(元/斤)-0.4-0.200.20.40.60.811.21.41.61.8201-0202-0103-0203-2704-2105-1606-1307-1408-1720222023202420250.520.52 二、现货端——鲜销与毛白价差终端消费同比偏稳定。样本屠企猪肉鲜销率(%)8586878889909192939401-0301-2702-2103-1704-1105-0505-3006-3008-0209-02202220232024202589.2589.25毛白比价1.261.271.281.291.31.311.321.331.341.351.361.371.381.3901-0202-0102-2903-2304-1705-1106-0207-0608-0409-0520222023202420251.31.3 二、现货端——相关产品比价与鲜冻价差猪肉性价比一般。2号肉鲜冻价差几乎不存在，鲜品会对冻品形成替代，增加对毛猪的需求。0.220.240.260.280.30.320.340.360.380.40.420.440.460.4801-02猪肉/蔬菜33.544.555.566.577.588.501-0202-0803-1604-2306-0207-0908-1509-2211-0412-1120222023202420254.7714.771猪肉/鸡肉0.911.11.21.31.41.51.61.71.81.901-0202-0803-1604-2306-0207-0908-1509-2211-0412-1120222023202420251.1751.17501234567801-02 猪肉/牛肉02-0903-1804-2606-0607-1408-2120222023202420250.3250.3252号肉鲜冻价差(元/公斤)02-1003-1604-1805-1906-2708-0809-1920222023202420250.250.25 二、现货端——养殖利润自繁自养利润仍然可观，外购育肥处于微利状态。养殖利润（元/头）-600-400-20002004006008001,0001,2001,4002022-04-072022-08-042022-12-012023-04-132023-08-10自繁自养 二、现货端——出栏体重出栏体重继续下降，前期累库压力逐渐释放。生猪出栏体重(公斤)11912012112212312412512612712812913001-0201-2502-2203-1404-0604-2705-1806-1307-1308-15202320242025128.33128.33 三、产能端——能繁母猪存栏量据农业部数据显示，4月末全国能繁母猪存栏量4038万头，环比持平，同比+1.3%。涌益咨询数据显示，4月其样本1能繁母猪环比+0.96%，上月+0.1%，产能继续增加；My steel数据显示，4月其样本规模企业能繁母猪环比+0.36%，上月+0.08%.钢联规模场能繁母猪存栏量4,500,0004,550,0004,600,0004,650,0004,700,0004,750,0004,800,0004,850,0004,900,0004,950,0005,000,0005,050,0005,100,0005,150,0002022-01-312022-08-312023-03-312023-10-31存栏量(头)农业部能繁母猪存栏量及环比3,9504,0004,0504,1004,1504,2004,2504,3004,3504,4002022-01-312022-08-312023-03-312023-10-312024-05-31农业部能繁母猪存栏量(万头)环比(%) 数据来源：涌益咨询、My steel、农业部、融达期货2024-05-312024-12-31-2.1-1.8-1.5-1.2-0.9-0.6-0.300.30.60.91.21.51.82.12024-12-31涌益咨询能繁母猪存栏变化-14-12-10-8-6-4-20246810122022-01-312022-08-312023-03-312023-10-312024-05-312024-12-31环比(%)同比(%) 三、产能端——母猪淘汰情况本周淘汰母猪价格偏弱运行。淘汰母猪宰杀量4月环比减少。样本企业淘汰母猪均价(元/公斤)78910111213141516171819202101-0301-2802-2403-2204-1805-1306-1007-1508-1909-23202220232024202510.6710.67淘汰母猪价/毛猪价0.540.570.60.630.660.690.720.750.780.810.8401-0202-0103-0203-3004-2705-2506-2908-0409-1210-1920222023202420250.7490.749 10-2811-24 三、产能端——母猪生产效率与新生健仔数4月新生健仔数环比+2.91%（前值+0.94%），对应到今年10月出栏生猪量持续增加（按育肥期6个月计算）。母猪生产效率99.29.49.69.81010.210.410.610.81111.211.42020-04-302020-12-312021-08-312022-04-302022-12-312023-08-31五省平均窝均健仔数(头)五省平均产房存活率(%,右轴) 85.58686.58787.58888.58989.59090.59191.5922024-04-302024-12-31 三、产能端——母猪、仔猪补栏积极性本周15Kg仔猪价格价格继续下跌，50Kg二元母猪价格稳中偏弱运行。50Kg二元母猪价格(元/头)1,5201,5401,5601,5801,6001,6201,6401,6601,6801,70001-0202-0102-2903-2304-1805-1106-0607-1108-152023202420251627162715Kg仔猪价格(元/头)20025030035040045050055060065070075080085001-0202-0102-2903-2304-1805-1106-0607-1108-15202320242025606606 09-1