从保护到促进：产业政策的新时代（英）

Expanding tariffsmay be capturing the headlines, but industrial-policy measures are on the riseas well. Governments have long implemented subsidies, incentives, and other interventions indomestic economies to support employment, critical manufacturing, and other national priorities.However, as the establishment of the World Trade Organization and the expansion of global trademade free-market and free-trade policies the global norm, many countries put less emphasison supporting domestic industries.1The COVID-19 pandemic and rising geopolitical tensions,which intensified economic and global supply chain vulnerabilities, reversed that trend. Between2017 and 2024,2global industrial-policy actions increased by approximately 390 percent,3with aparticular focus on critical industries such as defense, semiconductors, and high-end equipment.Such measures can significantly affect the economic environment in which businesses operate,including market access (through export and import restrictions, for example), labor availability(through interventions such as workforce development initiatives), core business operations, andthe economics of capital investments (via investment subsidies, for instance). In some industries,government incentives are so sizable that they alter the competitive balance: In 2023, subsidiesfor battery technologies represented nearly 30 percent of global battery revenues.4As companies grapple with today’s complex geopolitical landscape, understanding the full scopeof government incentives can help business leaders both maximize returns on investments andnavigate the competitive dynamics in global markets.Those who integrate industrial-policy considerations into strategic decisions can reduce theircosts of capital, minimize risk in priority innovation projects, and find new avenues for growth.Three actions in particular can position businesses for success. First, conducting a survey ofindustrial-policy measures across geographies and sectors can help companies ensure theyare considering all relevant programs. Second, understanding the “durability” of incentives canhelp decision-makers validate the resilience and longevity of business cases that incorporatesuch programs. Last, benchmarking the organization’s use of industrial-policy measures againstprimary competitors can show executives how incentives, subsidies, and other governmentsupports affect the competitive playing field.A brief history of industrial policyGovernments pursue industrial policies to advance economic and geopolitical interests.5Whiletariffs,import and export restrictions, and regulatory barriers all play a role in shaping domesticindustries, in this article we focus on three forms of industrial policy:—Fiscal incentives:tax-related benefits that create advantages for specific industries orcompanies and policies regulating foreign direct investment, such as ownership thresholdsand sector restrictions1“Is industrial policy making a comeback?,” Council on Foreign Relations, September 18, 2023.2Our analysis is based on the Global Trade Alert (GTA) team’s New Industrial Policy Observatory (NIPO) incentive tracker. Thetracker’s highest-quality data starts in 2017, the year we chose as the base year for most of our analysis.3NIPO, Global Trade Alert, accessed January 2025. Since the database of government interventions grows continuously,including additions of policies from previous years, we selected the period of 2017 to 2023 to cover any potential reportinglags. We excluded 2024 as the tracker does not have complete data for that year.4NIPO, Global Trade Alert, accessed January 2025. The source shows $37 billion in battery subsidies in 2023 across lithium-ion, fuel cell, and other battery categories;Battery market size, share & trends analysis report 2025-2030, Grand ViewResearch. The report estimates market size across all battery segments at $134.6 billion in 2024.5Gavin Bade, “Trump reciprocal-tariff vow further breaks from global trading norms,”Wall Street Journal, February 12, 2025. —Financial incentives:subsidies, grants, loans, loan guarantees, and other financialinstruments that subsidize certain market activities by lowering companies’ cost base orotherwise improving their business cases—Market promotion:actions that stimulate demand or help create more favorable marketconditions (through direct procurement or price stabilization, for example) for targetindustries or companiesOver the years, these instruments have helped numerous countries realize their economic andgeopolitical aspirations. The US Apollo program, for example, used government procurement,direct R&D investment, and other incentives to mobilize roughly 20,000 companies andacademic institutions in support of winning the “space race.”6A decade later, South Korea’sinterventions, such as easing access to foreign credit, credit subsidies, and export promotion,fueled its rise as a heavy-industry and advanced-manufacturing giant.7Recent shifts in global industrial