供应链多样化和弹性（英）

*The authors would like to thank Philip Barrett, Nigel Chalk, Mai Dao, Daniel Garcia-Macia, Lorenzo Rotunno, Michele Ruta,Philippe Wingender, Yizhi Xu, Jing Zhou, and seminar participants at the IMF for their useful comments.IMF Working PaperWestern Hemisphere DepartmentSupply Chain Diversification and ResiliencePrepared byJaeBin Ahn and Brandon Joel Tan*Authorized for distribution byNigel ChalkMay2025IMF Working Papersdescribe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicitcomments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of theauthor(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.ABSTRACT:This paper develops a new multi-country and multi-sector general equilibrium trade model toanalyze extent to which the diversification of sources ofimports mitigates the impact of adverse trade shocks.The model incorporates trade network rigidities arising from frictions in goods, labor, and local factor markets.Because countries cannot immediately reconfigure supply chains in response to shocks, supply chaindiversification can potentially improve resilience, at the cost of efficiency. Quantifying the resilience-efficiencytrade-off suggests that diversifying the sources of targeted imports—those more exposed to shocks, positionedupstream in the supply chain, and subject to greater rigidities—can enhance expected welfare when theprobability of a large trade shock is sufficiently high.F14,F15, F16, F17Trade;Supply Chains;Diversificationjahn@imf.org, btan2@imf.org JEL Classification Numbers: Keywords:Author’s E-Mail Address: Supply Chain Diversification and Resilience∗JaeBin Ahn†Brandon Joel Tan‡May 2025AbstractThis paper develops a new multi-country and multi-sector general equilibrium trademodel to analyze extent to which the diversification of sources of imports mitigates theimpact of adverse trade shocks. The model incorporates trade network rigidities arisingfrom frictions in goods, labor, and local factor markets. Because countries cannot im-mediately reconfigure supply chains in response to shocks, supply chain diversificationcan potentially improve resilience, at the cost of efficiency. Quantifying the resilience-efficiency trade-off suggests that diversifying the sources of targeted imports—thosemore exposed to shocks, positioned upstream in the supply chain, and subject togreater rigidities—can enhance expected welfare when the probability of a large tradeshock is sufficiently high.The authors would like to thank Philip Barrett, Nigel Chalk, Mai Dao, Daniel Garcia-Macia, LorenzoRotunno, Michele Ruta, Philippe Wingender, Yizhi Xu, Jing Zhou, and seminar participants at the IMF fortheir useful comments. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and should not be attributed tothe International Monetary Fund, its staff, management, or policies.International Monetary Fund; jahn@imf.orgInternational Monetary Fund; btan2@imf.org 1IntroductionSupply chain disruptions in the wake of the pandemic have brought to light the impor-tance of resilience. Notably, shipping costs increased almost sevenfold during the pandemic(Carri`ere-Swallow et al. 2023). At the same time, rising geopolitical risks—particularly sincethe 2018–2019 US–China trade hikes—have accelerated trends toward geoeconomic fragmen-tation (e.g., Aiyar et al. 2023). In response, the Biden-Harris Administration implementedmore than 30 strategic actions aimed at strengthening supply chain resilience, includingsubsidies and tariffs to incentivize diversification and reshoring.1The Trump administrationhas also cited the objective of maintaining a “resilient domestic industrial base” by address-ing “critical vulnerabilities and choke points in global supply chains” as a rationale for newtariffs.2These, in turn, are prompting the US’s trading partners to reconsider their relianceon US supply chains.3This paper analyzes the extent to which diversifying sources of imports—including throughon-shoring—can mitigate the adverse effects of trade shocks. By spreading sourcing acrossmultiple origins, diversification enhances resilience by reducing reliance on single or concen-trated suppliers.However, these benefits come at a cost, namely, efficiency losses due tohigher costs. Accordingly, this paper contributes to the literature by formally analyzing thetrade-off between resilience and efficiency in the context of global supply chains.We begin by presenting three stylized facts on the relationship between supply chaindiversification and resilience.4Focusing on US imports, we first show that geographically di-versified supply chains are less exposed to exporter-specific supply shocks in a manner similarto how a diversified portfolio reduces overall risk from individual assets. Second, we illustratethat sectors with more diversification in their source countries are more resilient to trade1See “Fact Sheet:President Biden Announces New Actions to Strengthen Americ