2025年第一季度投资市场

Source: Knight Frank202320242023202401.-04.2025Source: NBP, BoE, US Fed, ECBUS Fed2026f*3.31.41.5 Source: Knight Frank*f - forecast Moreover, the ongoing monetary easingby major central banks is also positivelyimpacting the investment market byincreasing capital availability andreducing financing costs. As a result,investor activity is on the rise, withinstitutional investors increasinglyallocating capital to prime assets withsubstantial volumes.Additionally, the investment marketis expanding due to the increasedinvolvement of domestic capital.In Q1 2025, Polish capital accountedfor EUR 116 million, representing arecord 17% share of the total investmentvolume in Poland. Other notablesources of capital during this quarterinclude Israel (17% share), the USA(13%), Ukraine (10%), and the UnitedKingdom (9%).WAREHOUSE MARKETIn Q1 2025, the investment volumein warehouse properties exceededEUR 202 million, representing 29%of the total investment volume. Thisfigure surpassed both the officeand retail sectors, underscoring therobust interest from investors in thewarehouse market and affirmingPoland’s strong position in Europe.Several factors are contributing to theongoing development of this sector,including substantial infrastructureinvestments and the rapid growthInvestment volume by sectorofficeretailwarehouse0%10%20%Q1 20252024202320222021202020193.4%Projected GDP growth in Poland in2025 - one of the highest in UE. of the e-commerce sector. Notably,demand in Q1 2025 reached 1.1 millionsq m, approximately 16% higher than inthe same period the previous year.The investment volume in warehouseproperties rose by 47% compared to theprevious year, with almost the samenumber of transactions being recorded.All agreements involved high-qualityassets situated in key hubs like Warsawand the Tricity. Predominantly, largeinstitutional investors made upthe buyer demographic, and theirincreasing activity indicates a positivetrend for the market, suggesting furthergrowth in investment volume in theupcoming quarters.Prime yields in Q1 2025 remainedstable at 6.5–6.75%, much above yieldsachieved in Western Europe.RETAIL MARKETThe total transaction value in retailproperties for Q1 2025 exceededEUR 189 million, representing athreefold increase compared to thesame period last year. Simultaneously,the number of transactions doubled,rising from 7 in Q1 2024 to 14 inQ1 2025. The retail sector’s share ofthe total investment volume remainedhotelBTRPBSA30%40%50%60% significant at 27%, second only to thewarehouse sector.Most transactions continue to involvesmall retail properties located insmaller towns, with values notexceeding EUR 20 million. In the firstquarter, only four transactions withlarger volumes were recorded, nonesurpassing EUR 35 million.In the retail market for Q1 2025, localcapital is highly prominent, with Polishentities participating in half of alltransactions.Prime yields are estimated to remainat the same level as in the previousquarter, with the best shopping centresin major agglomerations yielding above6%.OFFICE MARKETThe total value of investmenttransactions in office properties forQ1 2025 reached EUR 176 million,reflecting a 64% increase comparedto the same period last year. Thenumber of transactions also rose from8 in Q1 2024 to 11 in Q1 2025. The officesector maintains a significant share inthe market structure, accounting for26% of the total investment volume inQ1 2025.Source: Knight Frank70%80%90%100% Unlike the previous year, mosttransactions involved assets locatedoutside of Warsaw and acquiredby local or regional capital. Thesetransactions were largely opportunistic,offering yields exceeding 10% andwith values ranging from EUR 600to 1,500 per sq m. Warsaw saw threetransactions recorded in Q1 2025,however accounting for more thanhalf of the investment volume in officeproperties.The sector shows promising prospectsdue to several factors, including arevival in economic activity withinPoland and the country’s stableposition as a key outsourcing marketglobally. This stability has resultedin increasingly positive outcomes inthe leasing market, with demand forleasing in Q1 2025 rising by above20% compared to Q1 2024. Suchdevelopments further enhance investorconfidence in the market.The prime yields in the sector areestimated to remain consistent withthose in Q4 2024, slightly exceeding 6%.LIVING SECTORIn Q1 2025, the investment volume inthe Build-to-Rent (BTR) sector reachedapproximately EUR 100 million,accounting for a 15% share of thetotal investment volume. This sectorcontinues to attract investors, partlydue to prime yields that are higher thanthose in Western Europe, currentlystanding at 5.5% for BTR and 6% forPurpose-Built Student Accommodation(PBSA).The living sector in Poland remainsparticularly promising due to asignificant housing deficit, a positivemigration balance, and an increasingnumber of students. These factorscontribute to robust performance inthe leasing market and bolster investorconfidence in t