EB月报：苯乙烯港口库存低位 基差坚挺

■市场分析■策略■风险 研究院化工组研究员梁宗泰020-83901031liangzongtai@htfc.com从业资格号：F3056198投资咨询号：Z0015616陈莉020-83901135cl@htfc.com从业资格号：F0233775投资咨询号：Z0000421联系人杨露露0755-82790795yanglulu@htfc.com从业资格号：F03128371吴硕琮020-83901158wushuocong@htfc.com从业资格号：F03119179刘启展020-83901049liuqizhan@htfc.com从业资格号：F03140168投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1289号 目录苯乙烯观点........................................................................................................................................................................................1苯乙烯国内基本面情况.....................................................................................................................................................................4EB国内新增产能.......................................................................................................................................................................4中国EB周度开工及月度检修预估..........................................................................................................................................4EB基差&生产利润&开工率&库存.............................................................................................................................................6海外苯乙烯开工及跨国价差.............................................................................................................................................................7中国纯苯基本面情况.........................................................................................................................................................................9纯苯供应及库存........................................................................................................................................................................9纯苯下游开工率......................................................................................................................................................................11苯乙烯下游情况..............................................................................................................................................................................12苯乙烯下游开工率..................................................................................................................................................................12苯乙烯下游库存及生产利润..................................................................................................................................................13图表表1:中国EB投产计划|单位：万吨/年..........................................................................................................................................4图1:中国EB开工率预估（根据检修计划统计）|单位：%.........................................................................................................4图2:中国苯乙烯检修实际产能（乘以-1）|单位：万吨/月.........................................................................................................5图3:外购纯苯的EB检修量（乘以-1）|单位：万吨/月..............................................................................................................5图4:自有纯苯的EB检修量（乘以-1）|单位：万吨/月..............................................................................................................5图5:EB主力合约基差|单位：元/吨...............................................................................................................................................6图6:华东苯乙烯非一体化生产利润|单位：元/吨.........................................................................................................................6图7:苯乙烯开工率|单位：%..........................................................................................................................................................6图8:苯乙烯华东港口库存|单位：万吨..........................................................................................................................................7图9:苯乙烯生产企业库存|单位：万吨..........................................................................................................................................7图10:海外EB开工率预估（根据检修计划统计）|单位：%.......................................................................................................7图11:海外EB检修量（乘以-1）|单位：万吨/月........................................................................................................................8图12:欧美EB检修量（乘以-1）|单位：万吨/月........................................................................................................................8图13:东北亚EB检修量（乘以-1）|单位：万吨/月....................................................................................................................8图14:中东EB检修量（乘以-1）|单位：万吨/月........................................................................................................................8图15:苯乙烯现货进口利润|单位：元/吨.......................................................................................................................................8图16:苯乙烯FOB美湾-CFR中国|单位：美元/吨.......................................................................................................................8图17:苯乙烯FOB鹿特丹-CFR中国|单位：美元/吨.......................................................................