2025年航空业状况

ContentsChapter 1:Can the global airlineindustry continue its climb?4The airline sector had a decentyear in 2024. Is it finally crackingthe value creation formula?Chapter 2:Are low-costairlines losing altitude?14Low- and ultra-low-cost airlineshave tended to earn better returnsthan full-service carriers, but theirperformance has slowed in theUnited States. Are there lessonshere for global airline leaders?Chapter 3:The eight mythsof airline retailing22Airlines are rethinking how theysell their offerings and service theircustomers. Understanding commonmisconceptions about airline retailingcould help accelerate growth.Chapter 4:How to modernizeairline planning34Outdated, nonintegrated approacheswon’t fly anymore. Airline planningcould benefit from an overhaul.Chapter 5:How severe isthe aircraft shortage—andwhat happens next?40Rebounding air travel demand isbumping up against a constrainedsupply of new aircraft. Assessing thesize of this gap—and how it could growor shrink—can help inform solutions.Acknowledgments47Can the aviationindustry soar tonew heights, or willheadwinds slowits progress? The aviation industryis enjoying a welcomeboost from resurgent postpandemic airtravel demand. But there remain potentialstorms to navigate. This report analyzes theindustry’s current trajectory while pointingtoward possible future landing spots.How might economic trends and geopoliticalevents shape aviation? What productofferings are most likely to find favor withair travelers? How can airlines adjust theirbusiness models, plan their schedules, andcalibrate their fleets in ways that achievetheir commercial and operational goals?During a moment that combines greatpromise with great uncertainty, it’scrucial for aviation stakeholders to groundtheir decisions in solid facts, carefulanalysis, and hard-earned insights.2The State of Aviation 2025 of airlines created positivevalue in 202441%relative importance of price as a driverfor air travelers’ booking choices34%$$$ ROIC for North American low-cost airlines in 2024–1.1%<State of Aviation landing page>Exhibit <4> of <5>cost to airline for each additionalminute an aircraft is delayed$100<State of Aviation landing page>Exhibit <5> of <5>global aircraft shortage as a result of increaseddemand and delayed deliveries2,000 Chapter 1Can the globalairline industrycontinue its climb? The airline sector had a decent yearin 2024. Is it finally cracking thevalue creation formula?Running an airlineisn’t for the timid. Weather events, infrastructure failures, and ficklepassenger demand can make an already-tough business even more challenging. As this articlegoes to publication,economic uncertainty and geopolitical tensionare both threatening to altertravel flows, piling yet more stress on airline executives.These business challenges show up on ledger sheets. Since 2005, we’ve analyzed the financialperformance of the aviation value chain. Our research demonstrates that, compared with otherasset-intensive sectors, airlines in aggregate have a long record of mixing positive growth withnegative economic profit.But recent results suggest that this losing streak could at last be nearing an end. Many carriersand multiple regions performed well in 2023, and 2024 data indicate another decent year.Airlines that have reported detailed financial results as of the time of this writing recorded, as awhole, an economic loss of $5 billion (or –0.6 percent of industry revenue), but 41 percent of theairlines we track earned their cost of capital. Considering the state of the industry prior to theCOVID-19 pandemic (airlines recorded a $30 billion collective economic loss in 2019), this is aremarkable feat.What’s changed for the industry? Are these changes structural? What can individual airlineslearn from the encouraging results? And what could derail the industry’s progress?The airline sector in 2024For the purposes of this analysis, we look at value creation from an investor’s perspective. Ourmeasure is economic profit, which considers the alternative return from equal-risk opportunitiesavailable to investors. It’s calculated by subtracting weighted average cost of capital (WACC)from ROIC and then multiplying by invested capital. Positive economic profit—when ROIC isabove WACC—signals that a company or sector is creating positive value.Airline sector ROIC in aggregate has been below its cost of capital since at least 1996, which isthe earliest data point in our research (Exhibit 1). Many of the structural factors underlying thispoor result remain: Airline passengers are typically very price sensitive, the industry featuresstrong competition paired with low barriers to entry and high barriers to exit, and the regulatorylandscape can pose challenges to consolidation. But in 2023 and 2024, results improved. The 5The State of Aviation 2025 Exhibit 1<State of Aviation - climb>Exhibit <1> of <4>Global airline industry ROIC1and median WACC,2%Note: 2024 figures based on airlines that have reported financial d