纯苯苯乙烯周报

成本继续下跌，终端以主动降库为主1.端午节后，市场交易成本为主。端午节期间，OPEC增产预期进一步强化，预计下周二开盘之后市场以交易成本下跌为主。纯苯趋势仍然偏弱，绝对价格短期难以大幅反弹。但是价格低位不宜追空。苯乙烯当前高利润高估值，下周市场交易原油成本坍塌，苯乙烯估值面临压力。2.5月开始了一轮来自终端贸易商补库形成的淡季正反馈，当前苯乙烯下游中PS>EPS>ABS，PS改善最为明显。产业链上游液体隐性库存逐步去化，转移到下游固体塑料粒子。ABS受到家电拖累，整体表现一般。PS下游库存结构快速转好，工厂库存压力逐步降低，并且原料备货并不多，当前反而是下游中最好的。EPS工厂目前接到618订单不多也降低了工厂端午节期间开工意愿。关注6月之后淡季下游的补库意愿以及夏天旺季终端消费情况。3.EB高利润逐步刺激高供应，小装置逐步重启；区域物流改变，港口加速累库。周内部分小产能装置、僵尸产能开始陆续讨论重启计划，华东某POSM工厂6月中旬大概率也会出料，苯乙烯供应在高利润刺激之下进一步修复。港口价格偏高，市场持续优化物流，港口到港货源超出预期，加速累库，预计6月底港口或达到10万吨以上库存。短期震荡偏弱为主。 纯苯月度进口数量（区域）:中国20152016201720182019202020212022202320242025纯苯进口超预期，eb下游出口也较多-2000002000040000600008000010000012000014000016000018000001-3102-2803-3104-3005-3106-3007-3108-3109-3010-3111-3012-31苯乙烯：出口数量合计：中国（月）202020212022202320240500010000150002000025000300003500001-3102-2803-3104-3005-3106-3007-3108-3109-3010-3111-3012-31ABS：出口数量合计：中国（月）2020202120222023 01-0101-1201-2202-0202-1202-2303-0603-1703-2704-0704-1704-2805-1005-2206-0406-1706-3007-1207-2408-0608-1909-0109-1309-2510-08焦化开工率201920202021202220232024202501-0101-1201-2202-0202-1202-2303-0603-1703-2704-0704-1704-2805-1005-2206-0406-1706-3007-1207-2408-0608-1909-0109-13加氢苯利润：山东2019202020212022202320242025加氢苯供应不多 纯苯下游利润02-1803-0203-1403-2604-0704-1905-0105-1305-2506-0606-1806-3007-1207-2408-0508-1708-2909-1009-2210-0410-1610-28BZN2018201920202021202220232024202501-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0804-2005-0305-1505-2706-0806-2007-0207-1407-2608-0708-1908-3109-1209-2410-0810-20苯乙烯：纯苯：价差：华东地区（日）20182019202020212022202320242025 己内酰胺02-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0804-2005-0305-1505-2706-0806-2007-0207-1407-26己内酰胺：生产毛利：中国（日）20182019202020222023202402-2303-0703-1803-2904-0904-2005-0105-1205-2306-0306-1606-2907-1207-2408-0608-19己内酰胺：产量：中国（周）201820192020202320242013201620172025 己二酸01234567801-3102-2803-3104-3005-3106-3007-3108-3109-3010-3111-3012-312018202240455055606570758001-0101-1301-2502-0502-1703-0103-13己二酸：产能利用率：中国（周） 苯酚02-0302-1402-2503-0803-1903-3004-1004-2105-02苯酚：产能利用率：中国（周）2016202201-1201-2302-0302-1402-2503-0803-1903-3004-1004-21苯酚：检修损失量：中国（周）2015201620212022 苯胺010203040506070809010001-0101-1201-2202-0301234567891001-0101-1201-2202-0202-12 苯乙烯02 苯乙烯当前格局：中性库存、高利润、中性产量01-1301-2502-0602-1803-0203-1403-2604-0704-1905-0105-1305-2506-0606-1806-3007-1207-2408-0508-1708-2909-1009-2210-0410-1610-2811-0911-2112-0312-1512-27苯乙烯：产能利用率：中国（日）2018201920202021202220232024202501-0101-1401-2702-0902-2203-0703-2004-0204-1504-2805-1005-2306-0506-2107-0507-1707-3008-1208-2509-0709-2010-0210-1510-2811-1011-2312-0612-1812-31苯乙烯：产量：中国（周）2018201920202021202220232024202505000010000015000020000025000030000001-0101-1401-2702-0902-2203-0703-2004-0204-1504-2805-1105-2406-0606-1907-0207-1507-2808-1008-2309-0509-1810-0110-1410-2711-0911-2212-0512-1812-31苯乙烯：样本工厂：库存：中国（周）20142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202502000040000600008000010000012000014000016000001-0101-1301-2502-0602-1803-0203-1403-2604-0704-1905-0105-1305-2506-0606-1806-3007-1207-2408-0508-1708-2909-1009-2210-0410-1610-2811-0911-2112-0312-1512-27苯乙烯：库存：华东地区（周）20142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202505000010000015000020000025000030000035000040000001-0101-12-2000-100001000200030004000500060007000800001-0201-1401-2602-07苯乙烯：一体化装置：生产毛利：中国（日） 芳烃全球价差：美亚物流价差无法打开，纯苯留在亚洲01-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0804-2005-0205-1405-2606-0706-1907-0107-1307-2508-0608-1808-3009-1109-2310-0510-1710-2911-1011-2212-0412-1612-29纯苯：美国-韩国20182019202020212022202320242025-2000200400600800100001-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0804-2005-0205-1405-2606-0706-1907-0107-1307-25甲苯：美国-韩国201820192020202220232024-2000200400600800100001-0201-1501-2802-1002-2303-0803-2104-0304-1604-2905-1205-2506-0706-2007-0307-1607-2908-1108-2409-0609-1910-0210-1510-2811-1011-2312-0612-19MX：美国-韩国2018201920202021202220232024202501-0102-0103-0104-0105-0106-0107-0108-0109-0110-0111-0112-01韩国统计局:纯苯:出口201820192020202120222023202402000040000600008000010000012000014000016000018000020000001-0102-0103-0104-0105-0106-0107-0108-0109-0110-0111-0112-01韩国统计局:MX:出口2018201920202021202220232024020000400006000080000100000120000韩国统计局:甲苯:出口201820192020202220232024：，同 花 顺，资料来源：Platts，同花顺iFinD，国泰君安期货研究 芳烃内部价差回归2020-07-032021-07-032022-07-03甲苯山东价格二甲苯山东价格MTBE山东价格汽油山东价格 二季度化工品去库与上端油品偏弱的矛盾01-2702-0902-2103-0503-1703-2904-1004-2305-0605-1905-3106-1206-2507-0807-2108-0208-1408-2709-0809-2010-0210-1510-2811-0811-2012-0212-1512-27甲苯：港口库存：中国（周）202120222023202420250246810121416182001-0101-1401-2702-0902-2103-0503-1703-2904-1004-2305-0605-1905-3106-1206-2507-0807-2108-0208-1408-2709-0809-2010-0210-1510-2811-0811-2012-0212-15二甲苯：港口库存：中国（周）2020202120222023202420250102030405060708001-0101-1401-2702-0902-2103-0503-1703-2904-1004-2305-0605-1905-3106-1206-2507-0807-2108-0208-1408-2709-0809-2010-0210-1510-2811-0811-2012-02汽油：厂内库存：山东：独立炼厂（周）20202021202220232024202502-0902-2103-0503-1703-2904-1004-2305-0605-1905-3106-1206-2507-0807-2108-0208-1408-2709-0809-2010-0210-1510-2811-0811-2012-0212-1512-27汽油：厂内库存：山东（月）20212022202320242025 ABS01-2502-0602-1803-0203-1403-2604-0704-1905-01ABS