尿素周度报告

Special report on Guotai Junan Futures综述：内需偏弱，出口预期支撑，震荡承压➢国际现货：中国散装小颗粒离岸价355.01-365.01美元/吨，较上周持平；黑海小颗粒港口离岸价355.01-365.01美元/吨，低端上调5美元/吨；波罗的海小颗粒港口离岸价350.01-360.01美元/吨，低端上调5美元/吨；中东小颗粒港口离岸370.01-380.01美元/吨，高端上调5美元/吨；巴西小颗粒CFR价格385.01-395.01美元/吨，较上周持平；印度到岸价385.01-398.25美元/吨，较上周持平。预计后续国内期货市场及现货市场交易逻辑逐渐与国际基本面接轨。➢尿素现货：国内需求偏弱，在投机性逐步走弱格局下，部分工厂价格小幅下调。尿素贸易商报价伴随投机性减弱小幅下调，预计现货后续中长周期视角下呈现震荡承压的状态。但另一方面，伴随出口通道的逐步放开，或有阶段性的反弹。截至2025年5月28日，中国尿素企业总库存量98.06万吨，较上周增加6.32万吨，环比增加6.89%。本周期尿素企业库存继续增加。一方面，出口政策落地后，厂检陆续开展，部分工厂库存预留给出口。另外，近期工农业需求不温不火，货源流向不及预期，导致尿素企业库存略有上涨。整体而言，由于短期贸易商投机性转弱，下周尿素生产企业库存预计仍呈现库存上升的格局。➢尿素期货：尿素目前仍呈现区间震荡的状态，中周期震荡承压。上方空间而言，国内追肥需求平缓释放，中游贸易商库存仍处于同比偏高的状态。与此同时，出口政策的细化一定程度抑制投机性。在国内基本面与政策共同抑制下，尿素上方空间较为有限。下方空间来看，出口通道的放开或阶段性缓解基本面压力，对尿素价格形成支撑。整体来看，在设定200万吨附近出口量的背景下，尿素中长周期视角压力仍偏大，价格中枢或逐步下移。但出口的释放或带来多阶段的价格反弹。➢策略建议：长周期逢高空思路对待；阶段性可根据出口信息交易出口反弹；9-1月差高位震荡为主；➢风险点：宏观事件冲击、出口政策调整，国际能源价格大幅波动； 2资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货研究 估值端：价格及价差01 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures尿素基差01-0101-1101-2101-3102-1002-2003-0203-1203-2204-0104-1104-2105-0120192020202101-0101-1101-2101-3102-1002-2003-0203-1203-2204-0104-1104-2105-01201920202021 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures尿素月差及仓单01-0201-1201-2202-0102-1102-2103-0303-1303-2304-0204-1304-2305-0605-1605-2606-0506-1506-2507-0507-1507-2508-045-9月差201920202021202201-0201-1201-2202-0102-1102-2103-0303-1303-2304-0204-1304-2305-0605-1605-2606-0506-1506-2507-0507-1507-2508-041-5月差2019202020212022 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures尿素国内现货价格10001500200025003000350001-0201-1201-2202-0102-1102-2103-0303-1303-2304-0204-1304-2305-0605-1605-2606-0506-1506-2507-0507-1507-2508-0408-1408-24元/吨正元小颗粒尿素出厂价2019202020212022202310001500200025003000350001-0201-1201-2202-0102-1102-2103-0303-1303-2304-0204-1304-2305-0605-1605-2606-0506-1506-2507-0507-1507-2508-0408-1408-24元/吨河北小颗粒尿素市场价20192020202120222023 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures尿素国际现货价格01-0101-1101-2101-3102-1002-2003-0203-1203-2204-0104-1104-2105-0105-1105-2105-3106-1006-2006-3007-1007-2007-3008-0908-1908-2909-08波罗的海大颗粒尿素FOB20182019202020212022202301-0101-1101-2101-3102-1002-2003-0203-1203-2204-0104-1104-2105-0105-1105-2105-3106-1006-2006-3007-1007-2007-3008-0908-1908-2909-08中国小颗粒尿素FOB201820192020202120222023 国内供应02 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures尿素生产企业检修计划企业全称山东联盟化工股份有限公司陕西渭河煤化工集团有限责任公司陕西陕化煤化工集团有限公司陕西陕化煤化工集团有限公司山西天泽煤化工集团股份公司山东晋煤明升达化工有限公司江苏华昌化工股份有限公司江苏华昌化工股份有限公司兖矿鲁南化工有限公司阳煤丰喜肥业(集团)有限责任公司 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures产量：生产利润在盈亏平衡线上，尿素日产仍维持高位10000012000014000016000018000020000022000001-0101-1401-2702-0902-2203-0703-2004-0204-1504-2805-1105-2406-0606-1907-0207-1507-2808-1008-2309-0509-1810-0110-1410-2711-0911-2212-0512-1812-31吨尿素：产量：中国（日）201820192020202120222023202420255055606570758085909501-0101-1301-2502-0602-1803-0203-1403-2604-0704-19%尿素：产能利用率：中国（日）201820228910111213141516171801-0101-1301-2502-0602-1803-0203-1403-2604-0704-1905-0105-1305-2506-0606-1806-3007-1207-2408-0508-1708-2909-1009-2210-0410-1610-2811-0911-2112-0312-1512-27万吨煤头尿素：产量：中国（日）2018201920202021202220232024202500.511.522.533.544.5501-0101-1301-2502-0602-1803-0203-1403-2604-0704-19万吨气头尿素：产量：中国（日）20182022 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures成本：原料价格相对稳定，工厂现金流成本线在1364元/吨附近01-1401-2702-0902-2203-0603-1703-2804-0804-1904-3005-1105-2206-0206-1506-2807-1007-2308-0508-1808-3109-1309-2510-0810-2111-0311-1611-2912-1112-24尿素气流床完全成本2018201920202021202220232024202510001500200025003000350001-0101-1401-2702-0902-2203-0603-1703-2804-0804-1904-3005-1105-2206-0206-1506-2807-1007-2308-0508-1808-3109-1309-2510-0810-2111-0311-1611-2912-1112-24元/吨尿素固定床完全成本20182019202020212022202320242025100012001400160018002000220024002600280001-0101-1401-2702-0902-2203-0603-1703-28元/吨20182022原料煤：7000卡无烟块动力煤：5800卡无烟末煤原料煤运费动力煤运费原料煤动力煤原料煤动力煤电耗电费其他成本（水、辅料、催化剂等）财务折旧现金流成本完全成本氨耗电耗电费1000595303010306251.150.2512000.51100300205323530.581500.511000595303010306251.150.2512000.51100300205323530.581500.511000595303010306251.150.2512000.51100300205323530.581500.511000595303010306251.150.2512000.51100300205323530.581500.511000590303010306201.150.2512000.51100300205223520.581500.511000590303010306201.150.2512000.51100300205223520.581500.511000590303010306201.150.2512000.51100300205223520.581500.511000590303010306201.150.2512000.51100300205223520.581500.511000590303010306201.150.2512000.51100300205223520.581500.511000590303010306201.150.2512000.51100300205223520.581500.511000590303010306201.150.2512000.51100300205223520.581500.511000595303010306251.150.2512000.51100300205323530.581500.511000615303010306451.150.2512000.51100300205823580.581500.511000615303010306451.150.2512000.51100300205823580.581500.511000615303010306451.150.2512000.51100300205823580.581500.511000615303010306451.150.2512000.51100300205823580.581500.51山西地区固定床工厂完全成本及现金流成本测算煤炭坑口煤炭运费煤炭到厂煤炭单耗 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures利润：尿素现金流成本所对应利润目前在盈利状态-600-400-20002004006008001000120001-0101-1401-2702-09元/吨-200020040060080010001200140001-0101-1401-2702-0902-2203-0603-1703-2804-0804-1904-3005-1105-2206-0206-1506-2807-1007-2308-0508-1808-3109-1309-2510-0810-2111-03