新希望有限公司（NHC）2025年第三季度业绩-初步观点

Daniel Roden * | Equity Analyst61 2 9364 2918 | droden@jefferies.comMitch Ryan * | Equity Analyst61 2 9364 2998 | mryan1@jefferies.com near-term due to challenges in thermal coal, however are increasingly optimistic we have seethe worst of the market softness.Call Details: 9:00am AEST on Monday 19 May 2025Please see important disclosure information on pages 5 - 10 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Figure 3 - New Hope - Financial Summary & Valuation.New Hope Corporation LtdFinancial SummaryRatiosPEP/OpCFEV/EBITDADividend YieldROE (Normalised NPAT / Equity)ROA (EBIT / (Assets - Cash))ROIC (EBIT / Assets)EBIT / Net InterestEBITDA / Net InterestNet Debt / EBITDAGearing - (Net Debt / Equity)Gearing - (Net Debt / (Net Debt + Equity))EBITDA MarginEffective tax rateFCFPS (Acps)FCF yieldIncome StatementA$MTotal RevenueOperating ExpensesEBITDADepreciation & AmortisationEBITInterest ExpenseNPBTTax ExpenseNormalised NPATExtraordinary ItemsReported NPATShares outstanding (m, excl milestone)Reported EPS (Acps)Reported EPS (Acps)Normalised EPS growthDividend/share - 1H (Acps)Dividend/share - 2H (Acps)Dividend per share (Acps)DPS growthPayout ratioCashflowA$MNet Cash from operationsNet interestTax & OtherNet cashflow from operating activitiesTotal PPE and development expenditureExploration expenditureSale/(purchase) of investments + otherNet cashflow from investing activitiesNet proceeds from share issuesDrawdown/(repayment) of debtDividends paidShare buybacksNet cashflow from financing activitiesNet increase/(decrease) in cashBoard & Management Equity Ownership30-Jun-22PositionChairmanNon-Executive DirectorNon-Executive DirectorNon-Executive DirectorNon-Executive DirectorNon-Executive DirectorNon-Executive DirectorManaging Director and CEOCFOSource: Company Reports, JefferiesPlease see important disclosure information on pages 5 - 10 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Figure 4 - New Hope - Operational Summary.New Hope Corporation LtdOperational SummaryProductionROM Coal ProductionBengalla (80% basis)New AclandTotal ROM ProductionSaleable Coal ProductionBengalla (80% basis)New AclandTotal Saleable ProductionCoal Sales (Attributable, incl purchases)Bengalla (80% basis)New AclandTotal SalesOperating CostsOperating Costs - A$/tper tonne sold (excl purchases, royalties)BengallaNew AclandOperating Costs (incl Group O/Hs)AISC Cash Costs - US$/tper tonne soldBengallaNew AclandGroup (incl purchases,royalties)Average Realised Coal PriceRealised ThermalCapital & Cash FlowCapital expenditureSustaining CapitalProject/Growth CapitalTotal Capital ExpenditureCash FlowOperating Cash FlowInvesting Cash FlowFree Cash Flow0510152025FY23FY24ROM Production-MtBengalla (80% basis)$0$50$100$150$200$250FY23AISC vs Price US$/tAISC Cash Costs - US$/t0100200300400500FY23Sustaining-US$mSustaining CapitalSource: Company Reports, JefferiesPlease see important disclosure information on pages 5 - 10 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Company DescriptionNew Hope Corp. LtdNew Hope Corporation (NHC.ASX) is an Australia-based thermal coal producer. The company's primary asset is the large-scale, low-cost Bengallamine in NSW, and NHC has an 80% interest in this operation. Annual attributable saleable production of approximately 8Mt is predominantlymid- and high-CV thermal coal targeting Asian markets. The company is also aiming to restart New Acland with the New Acland Stage 3 Project;approvals are in place for this to deliver a further 5.0Mt saleable production, but legal challenges remain a headwind. The NHC balance sheet isnow debt-free following the elevated coal price environment of recent years. This strength in cash generation has enabled the company to deliverelevated capital returns through share buybacks and dividends, which we expect to continue, albeit at lower levels as coal prices moderate.Company Valuation/RisksNew Hope Corp. LtdOur base-case valuation incorporates the Bengalla Growth Project with saleable production lifting to 11Mtpa from late 2024, and we assumesome moderation of unit costs, reflecting the volume recovery from weak 2022/23 levels. At New Acland, we allow for a further six-month delaybefore development commences in late 2025; we model the project largely in line with guidance, with capex 17% above guidance. We incorporatea risk-weighted valuation for the Malabar Resources 22.97% interest. We assume thermal coal prices moderate to our LT forecast of US$100/t by 2026.Consistent with our ASX listed mining coverage, our price target for NHC is based on a blend of NPV (50%), EV/EBITDA (25%), and P/OpCF (25%).We ascribe below-average mining sector multiples — 3x FY25 EV/EBITDA and 4x FY25 P/OpCF — reflecting the valuation discounts at whichcoal companies trade relative to mining peers and reduced investor universe