礼来公司临床前阿尔茨海默病深度探讨

2023A2024A2025E6.3212.9921.3934,124.145,042.759,019.8-45,042.760,091.4NM58.3x35.4x 2026E31.9773,073.070,730.023.7x Akash Tewari * | Equity Analyst1 (212) 284-3416 | atewari@jefferies.comAmy Li, PharmD * | Equity Analyst+1 (332) 236-6802 | ali8@jefferies.comPhoebe Tan * | Equity Associate(212) 778-8356 | ptan1@jefferies.comAnastasia Parafestas * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 336-6648 | aparafestas@jefferies.comKatherine Wang * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 778-8985 | kwang4@jefferies.comManoj Eradath, MBBS, Ph.D. * | EquityAssociate+1 (202) 707-6443 | meradath@jefferies.comZaki Molvi, PhD * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 708-2726 | zmolvi@jefferies.com The Long View: LillyInvestment Thesis / Where We DifferWe're bullish on LLY for several reasons: 1) The company has an attractivegrowth profile in a recessionary environment. 2) We're bullish on GLP-1 andsee it as one of the biggest drug classes of all time. We think Mounjaro couldshow strong T2DM outcomes data, and strong SELECT data opens the doorfor broader payer adoption and potential CMS coverage for the GLP-1 classin obesity. 3) We like LLY's next-gen oral GLP-1 and think it could come closeto Mounjaro-like efficacy LT. 4) We think there is potential near-term upsidefor LLY on revenue and EPS growth.Base Case,$1057, +40%Base case; PT: $1057•GLP-1: ~$80B peak sales•Oral Orforglipron: ~$39B peak sales•Alzheimer’s (Donanemab + Remternetug): ~$4.4B•LT Operating Margin: 49%-50%Sustainability MattersTop material issue:LLY aims to create medicine that makes life better for people around the world.The company dedicates itself to continual progress and improving its positive impact on people and theplanet.Company targets:1)LLY works to continually reduce its environmental footprint across the life cyclesof its products and supply chain. To track its progress, it measures and manages energy and wateruse, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and the generation of waste and wastewater throughout itsmanufacturing process.2)LLY’s approach to social impact starts with its medicine and its goal to expandaccess to quality healthcare. It strives to provide an inclusive higher-performance workplace.3)LLY iscommitted to upholding its high standards of corporate conduct in all business dealings around the world.Qs to mgmt: 1)What efforts would you make to expand affordable quality healthcare to resource-limitedareas?2)What are your specific goals for community engagement this year and beyond?Please see important disclosure information on pages 73 - 78 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Upside Scenario,$1300, +72%Upside; PT $1300•GLP-1: ~$150B peak sales est.•Oral Orforglipron: ~$50B peak sales•Alzheimer’s (Donanemab + Remternetug): ~$7.9B•LT GM: ~50%+ Downside Scenario,$450, -41%Downside; PT $450•GLP-1: ~$45B peak sales est.•(Donanemab+Remternetug):~$5B forDonanemab and ~$0B for Remternetug•LT GM: high 30%-low 40%Catalysts2025: SURPASS-CVOT Topline Data2025: Data from Orforglipron Ph.32027:SURMOUNT-MMO Primary CompletionDate 2 Source: Jefferies AnalysisSource: Jefferies AnalysisPlease see important disclosure information on pages 73 - 78 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. .Source: Jefferies Analysis.Source: Jefferies AnalysisPlease see important disclosure information on pages 73 - 78 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Source: Jefferies AnalysisSource: Jefferies AnalysisPlease see important disclosure information on pages 73 - 78 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Income Statement.Source: Jefferies analysis; Company dataPlease see important disclosure information on pages 73 - 78 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Akash TewariHealthcare Equity ResearchEmail:atewari@jefferies.comTel: +1-212-284-34161LLY: Deep Dive on Preclinical Alzheimer’sAkash Tewari,Equity Analystatewari@jefferies.com, +1 (212) 284-3416Amy Li,Pharm.D,Equity Associateali8@jefferies.com, +1 (332) 236-6802Phoebe Tan,Equity Associateptan1@jefferies.com, +1 (212) 778-8356Anastasia Parafestas, Equity Associateaparafestas@jefferies.com, +1 (212) 336-6648Katherine Wang,Equity Associatekwang4@jefferies.com,+1 (212) 778-8985Manoj Eradath, MBBS PhD,Equity Associatemeradath@jefferies.com,+1 (212) 707-6443Zaki Molvi, PhD,Equity Associatezmolvi@jefferies.com,+1 (212) 708-2726 Akash TewariHealthcare Equity ResearchEmail:atewari@jefferies.comTel: +1-212-284-3416Outside oforfo’sPh.3s, the other major Ph.3 read-out we’re tracking fromLLY is TRAILBLAZER-ALZ3 (TB3), donanemab’s preclinical Alzheimer’s trial2•TRAILBLAZER-ALZ3 (NCT05026866) is a Ph.3pbo-controlled trial with a decentralized design evaluating donanemab in cognitively unimpaired pts with evidence ofAlzheimer