阿布扎比国家石油公司物流与服务公司：下调至持有，整合时机

Issuer of report:HSBC Bank plcView HSBC Global Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.comListen to our insightsFind out moreHSBC Global Research PodcastsDOWNGRADE TO HOLDTARGET PRICE(AED)PREVIOUS TARGET(AED)5.305.30SHARE PRICE(AED)UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE4.69+13.0%(as of16 May 2025)MARKET DATAMarket cap(AEDm)34,699Free floatMarket cap (USDm)9,447BBG3m ADTV (USDm)6RICFINANCIALS AND RATIOS(USD)Year to12/2024a12/2025e12/2026eHSBC EPS0.100.11HSBC EPS (prev)0.100.11Change (%)0.0-5.0Consensus EPS0.100.11PE (x)12.511.8Dividend yield (%)2.83.0EV/EBITDA (x)8.58.3ROE (%)16.316.352-WEEK PRICE(AED)Source:LSEGIBES, HSBC estimatesIldar Khaziev*, CFAAnalyst, EEMEA Oil and Gas &UtilitiesHSBC Bank plcildar.khaziev@hsbc.com+44 20 7992 3302Kaushik Gopalakrishnan*AssociateBangalore* Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/ qualifiedpursuant to FINRA regulationsEquitiesEnergy Equipment &ServicesUnited Arab Emirates05/2411/24Target price: 5.30High: 5.80 Low: 3.97 Current: 4.69 0.110.12-3.90.1211.43.18.016.2 19%ADNOCLSUHADNOCLS.AD12/2027e0.120.12-3.40.1311.03.37.815.23.704.906.1005/25 2Financial statementsYear to12/2024a12/2025e12/2026eProfit & loss summary(USDm)Revenue3,5494,6394,615EBITDA1,1351,3621,390Depreciation & amortisation-317-493-491Operating profit/EBIT817869900Net interest-2-36-23PBT829868897HSBC PBT829868897Taxation-73-52-54Net profit756798825HSBC netprofit756798825Cash flow summary(USDm)Cash flow from operations1,0101,1831,290Capex-1,218-706-607Cash flow from investment-1,186-1,530-607Dividends-267-280-294Change in net debt4671,957-238FCF equity-270341543Balance sheet summary(USDm)Intangible fixed assets628484Tangible fixed assets4,7056,8657,101Current assets1,6332,0462,026Cash & others199440457Total assets7,0039,84610,082Operating liabilities1,4341,7711,787Gross debt7392,9372,717Net debt5402,4972,260Shareholders' funds4,8954,8905,309Invested capital4,7676,7856,967Ratio, growth and per share analysisYear to12/2024a12/2025e12/2026eY-o-y % changeRevenue28.830.7-0.5EBITDA31.620.12.1Operating profit33.26.43.5PBT33.24.83.3HSBC EPS21.95.53.4Ratios (%)Revenue/IC (x)0.80.80.7ROIC16.814.112.3ROE16.316.316.2ROA12.110.48.9EBITDA margin32.029.430.1Operating profit margin23.018.719.5EBITDA/net interest (x)465.037.961.7Net debt/equity11.048.540.6Netdebt/EBITDA (x)0.51.81.6CF from operations/net debt186.947.457.1Per share data(USD)EPS Rep (diluted)0.100.110.11HSBC EPS (diluted)0.100.110.11DPS0.040.040.04Book value0.660.660.72Financials & valuation:ADNOC L&S Company descriptionADNOC L&S provides energy maritime logistical solutions. The company operates throughthree key segments: (1) Integrated Logistics providing end-to-end logistics services with aspecial emphasis on offshore upstream operations, with a fleet of jack-up barges and othervessels; (2) Shipping business with a fleet of crude oil and product tankers, dry bulk, container,LNG, and LPG carrying vessels (37%); and (3) Marine Services. Majority of the company’srevenue is booked under long-term contracts, with the exception of revenue generated bytanker and dry-bulk fleets. Parent ADNOC Group remains the key customer and accounts formost revenue in Integrated Logistics, while the shipping business is more diversified. ADNOCL&S intends to grow globally and targets a50/50 split for ADNOC and non-ADNOC businesses(from 65/35 in 2023), with the recent Navig8 acquisition being a big step in that direction. Thecompany has a medium-term net debt-to-EBITDA ratio target of 2.0-2.5x.Investment summaryADNOC Group’s ambitious expansion programme in upstream and downstream is likely to drivestrong demand growth for ADNOC L&S. It is benefitting from growing demand in the IntegratedLogistics business and is expanding its fleet of LNG carriers. It is also building a fleet of ethaneand ammonia carriers through its AWS JV. After its IPO, the company has committed cUSD5bnof organic growth investments (excludingthe recentUSD1.5bn Navig8 acquisition), which willbe executed over the next few years with the new vessel deliveries over 2025-28. In addition,management announced in 2024 another growth capex programme of at least USD3bn, whichis not yet factored into the company’s P&L guidance: there is a chance that some of theseinvestments will take place internationally or focus on the integrated logistics business.Following the acquisition of Navig8,the company estimatesthat29% of the company’s 2025eEBITDA will be exposed tospotmarket tanker and dry bulk shipping rates. We think there willbevery marginal contribution from up tofournew LNG vessels delivered by 2025-end (of whichone was delivered in 2024), with a contracted revenue stream starting in mid-2026 andexposure to the very weak spot rates in the meantime. HSBC shipping analysts believe that ton-milage and demand-supply balance will remain favourable for oil tankers in 2025 on the back ofUS sanctions and OPEC+ output hikes, but expect a slight retreat for product tankersonstronger supply, with 5.8% nominal