阿布扎比国家石油公司钻井公司（ADNOCDRI）：关注股息与非常规油气机会

2025E2026E4,707.35,040.61,402.11,516.81,039.41,503.61,990.11,412.0 2027E5,092.91,611.81,751.9682.8 Ruben Dewa, CFA * | Equity Analyst+44 (0)20 7029 8262 | rdewa@jefferies.comMark Wilson, CEng * | Equity Analyst44 (0) 20 7029 8691 | mark.wilson@jefferies.comGiacomo Romeo * | Equity Analyst44 (0) 20 7548 4727 | giacomo.romeo@jefferies.comLloyd Byrne ^ | Equity Analyst(212) 323-7528 | lloyd.byrne@jefferies.com The Long View: ADNOC DrillingInvestment Thesis / Where We DifferADNOC Drilling is one of the few listed ways to gain exposure to a majorNational Oil Company in the form of ADNOC Group, which produces c.96%of UAE production. As the sole provider of drilling rigs to ADNOC Group,ADNOC Drilling is relatively insulated from commodity cycles, as it issupported by ADNOC's main growth pillars:•ADNOC has committed to increase its oil production capacity to 5mmb/d by 2027 (4.85mmb/d in May 2024)•ADNOC has stated its aim to produce an additional 1bcf/d of gas by2030, to aid the UAE to achieve gas self-sufficiency by 2030, through thedevelopment of unconventional oil and gas production.•JEFe see ADNOC Drilling's dividend policy to return at least $4.8bnbetween 2024-2028 as covered by FCF.Base Case,AED6.80, +29%•EV/EBITDA: using 14.0x multiple (unch) onave 2025/26, (last two years ave 2023/24)gives AED6.57•Gives AED6.69/sh + FY25 dividend of AED0.25/sh (c.4% yield)= AED 6.80/sh (rounded)Sustainability MattersTop Ranked ESG Issue: GHG EmissionsCompany Target(s):1) Reduce carbon intensity by 25% by 2030, and achieve Net Zero by 2045 asthe company is part of ADNOC Group; 2) GHG Abatement target of 21 KtCO2e; 3) Energy intensitytarget of 2,772 GJ/$m revenue.Questions to Management: 1) Can you quantify the value of your camps emissions abatement in AbuDhabi? 2) How is ESG integrated into your capital allocation decision-making process?ADNOC Drilling ESG AgendaCamps Emissions Abatement - Madinat Zayed camp powered by the grid since February 2024. Theremaining (Tarif, Habshan and Bu Hasa) camps are scheduled to be connected in throughout 2025.Rigs Emission Abatement: 16 newbuild hybrid rigs all in operations to monitor and optimise the energyintensity, with expected 10% - 15% abatement.Sustainability Initiatives - Monitoring consumption to identify gaps and areas of development,optimise diesel consumption to meet reduction target and further electrification initiatives for ouroperations are under evaluationLink to ESG Integration Sector Report - herePlease see important disclosure information on pages 8 - 13 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Upside Scenario,AED9.00, +71%•EV/EBITDA: using 16.0x multiple on average2025/26 estimates giving AED 7.56/sh•Additional c.AED1.2/sh from unconventionalphase 2•Addition of FY25 dividend of AED 0.29/sh.•Sum total gives AED 9.00/sh Downside Scenario,AED4.20, -20%•EV/EBITDA: using 9x multiple (discount tocurrentbbg cons),on average 2025/26estimates, gives AED4.09•Addition of FY25 dividend of AED 0.16/sh.•Sum total gives AED 4.20/shCatalysts2025 Guidance:Revenue: $4,600-$4,800mEBITDA: $2,150-$2,300m, margin: 46%-48%Net Income: $1,350-$1,450m, margin: 28%-30%Capex: $350-$550m, FCF: $1,300-$1,600mNet Debt/EBITDA: <2.0xMedium Term:Revenue: FY26e of c.$5bnEBITDA margin: c.50%, with drilling margins >50% and OFS 22% - 26%NWC as % of revenue of c.12%.Capex: Maintenance Capex of $200 - $250m p.aNet Debt/EBITDA: <2.0xFurtherEnersolAcquisitions,unconventionals Phase22 Exhibit 3 - Listed Drilling Stocks Ranked by Valuation.Source: Bloomberg consensus. As of COB 20 May 25Exhibit 4 - ADNOC Drilling FY25e Revenue Split.27%OnshoreSource: Jefferies estimates, company dataExhibit 6 - ADNOC Drilling EV/EBITDA Valuation.Sector MultiplesEV / EBITDAEBITDAEnterprise Value- Net Debt (Cash) Post-IFRS16Market ValueMarket ValueFully diluted shares outstandingImplied Price Target, EV / EBITDADiscount factorImplied Price Target, EV / EBITDASource: Jefferies estimatesPlease see important disclosure information on pages 8 - 13 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. 29%FY25e$4,707mOffshore$m$m$m$mAEDmAED/shAED/sh ADNOC Drilling Recent Corporate EventsExhibit 7 - ADNOC Drilling Corporate Events.DateDescription05-May-24ADNOC Drilling today awarded $806m contract by ADNOC Offshore for three island rigs to support offshore Zakum development project.17-Apr-25ADNOC Drilling awarded $1.63bnm 5yr IDS contract from ADNOC Offshore.Covers the provision of directional drilling, drilling fluids, cementing, wireline logging and tubular running services.27-Mar-25Enersol closes acquisition of 95% stake in Deep Well Services,leverages advanced technology, data analytics and automation31-Dec-24Enersol closes acquisition of 51% stake in NTS Amega,leading provider of advanced manufacturing, complex tool repair and rental solutions17-Dec-24ADNOC Drilling, SLB and Patterson-UTI close Turnwell