美团（3690 HK）：买入：竞争压力犹存

Issuer of report:The Hongkong and ShanghaiBanking Corporation Limited, Singapore BranchView HSBC Global Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.comHSBC Global Research Podcasts| Listen to our insightsMAINTAIN BUYTARGET PRICE(HKD)160.00SHARE PRICE(HKD)129.40(as of26 May 2025)MARKET DATAMarket cap(HKDm)715,623Market cap (USDm)91,3653m ADTV (USDm)FINANCIALS AND RATIOS(CNY)Year to12/2024aHSBC EPSHSBC EPS (prev)Change (%)Consensus EPSPE (x)Dividend yield (%)EV/EBITDA (x)ROE (%)52-WEEK PRICE(HKD)Source:LSEGIBES, HSBC estimatesCharlene Liu*Head of Internet and Gaming Research, Asia PacificThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking CorporationLimited, Singapore Branchcharlene.r.liu@hsbc.com.sg+65 6658 0615Ritchie Sun*, CFAAnalyst, Internet ResearchThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedritchie.k.h.sun@hsbc.com.hk+852 2822 4392* Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulationsEquitiesIT ServicesChina05/24Target price: 160.00High: 213.40 Low: 102.10 Current: 129.40 ◆◆◆ PREVIOUS TARGET(HKD)165.00UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE+23.6%Free floatBBG974RIC12/2025e7.037.030.06.9716.90.010.527.011/24 Find out more89%3690 HK3690.HK12/2026e12/2027e6.898.7610.457.068.9910.52-2.4-2.6-0.78.079.9712.0417.213.511.40.00.00.09.26.54.722.123.022.488.00159.00230.0005/25 2Financial statementsYear to12/2024a12/2025e12/2026eProfit & loss summary(CNYm)Revenue337,592387,240EBITDA45,26648,554Depreciation & amortisation-8,421-9,667Operating profit/EBIT36,84538,887Net interest-45388PBT37,98539,294HSBC PBT45,95145,975Taxation-2,177-3,878Net profit35,80735,415HSBC net profit43,77242,096Cash flow summary(CNYm)Cash flow from operations57,14752,077Capex-7,801-11,271Cash flow from investment10,205-15,364Dividends00Change in net debt-22,049-27,791FCF equity50,24340,806Balance sheet summary(CNYm)Intangible fixed assets30,23034,020Tangible fixed assets30,23932,146Current assets209,735241,183Cash & others187,793215,584Total assets324,355361,600Operating liabilities94,51796,152Gross debt55,75355,753Net debt-132,040-159,832Shareholders' funds172,663208,272Invested capital-12,106-4,388Ratio, growth and per share analysisYear to12/2024a12/2025e12/2026eY-o-y %changeRevenue22.014.7EBITDA111.47.3Operating profit174.65.5PBT170.93.4HSBC EPS90.5-2.0Ratios (%)Revenue/IC (x)-29.7-47.0ROIC-305.9-425.0-173722.9ROE27.022.1ROA12.010.8EBITDA margin13.412.5Operating profit margin10.910.0EBITDA/net interest (x)1000.8Net debt/equity-76.5-76.8Net debt/EBITDA (x)-2.9-3.3CF from operations/net debtPer share data(CNY)EPS Rep (diluted)5.755.80HSBC EPS (diluted)7.036.89DPS0.000.00Book value27.7334.11Financials & valuation:Meituan Source: HSBCNote:Priced at close of 26 May 2025 1Q25result takeawaysExhibit1:1Q25revenue and netprofitbeat consensusRMBmTotal revenuey-o-y1. Core local commercey-o-y1.1 Commissiony-o-y1.2 Delivery servicesy-o-y1.3 Online marketingy-o-y1.4 Other services and salesy-o-y2. New initiativesy-o-y1.1 Commissiony-o-y1.2 Online marketingy-o-y1.3 Other services and salesy-o-yGPMy-o-yOPy-o-y1. Core local commerce2. New initiativesUnallocated itemsAdjusted OPy-o-yOPMy-o-yAdjusted OPMy-o-y1. Core local commerce2. New initiativesAdjusted NPAdjusted NPMSource: Company report, HSBCestimates, Visible AlphaCore local commerce’srevenuegrew 18% yoy (consensus: 17%) and OPMwasat 21% (1.6pptabove consensus).◆Delivery services / commission / online marketing revenue grew 22%/20%/15% yoy.Delivery services was driven by volume growth and lower incentives. Commission growthwas driven by GTV growth. Marketing revenue growth was driven byanuptick in thenumber of ad merchants.◆In-store, hotel and travel:GTV grew at 30% yoy, with orders up mid-40% yoy. Revenuegrew20% yoy.OPM was flat qoq.Annual Active Merchants grew over 25% yoy.New initiatives’revenuegrew 19% yoy (consensus: 17%), driven by grocery retail and Keeta.Losses widened qoq to RMB2.3bn (small beat) due to Keeta and negative seasonality of certainnew initiatives. GPM for goods retail business improved yoy. Meituan’srevenue mildlybeat consensus by 1%;bothcore local commerce andnew initiatives revenue camein slightly ahead. AdjustedOP beat consensus by 12%,driven bya2.2ppts beat inOPM due to costoptimisation. 3 Revenue and profit outlookExhibit2:We expect CLC revenue to grow11% yoy in2Q25e…Source:Company data, HSBC estimatesExhibit4:We expect CLC OP todrop13%yoy in2Q25e…Source:Company data, HSBC estimatesExhibit6:We expect new initiatives’revenue to grow22% yoy in2Q25e…Source:Company data, HSBCestimates020,00040,00060,00080,0001Q242Q24 3Q24 4Q24 1Q25 2Q25eRMBmCore Local CommerceRevenueyoy (RHS)05,00010,00015,00020,0001Q242Q24 3Q24 4Q24 1Q25 2Q25eRMBmCore Local CommerceOPyoy (RHS)05,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,0001Q242Q243Q244Q241Q252Q25eRMBmNew initiativesRevenue 8Disclosure appendixAnalyst CertificationThe followinganalyst(s), economist(s), or strategist(s) who is(are) primarily responsible for this report, including any analyst(s)whose name(s) appear(