您的浏览器禁用了JavaScript(一种计算机语言,用以实现您与网页的交互),请解除该禁用,或者联系我们。[Jefferies]:零售更新:大众美容产品销售额同比增长放缓至2.0%;平均售价增长2.7%,销量下降0.7% - 发现报告

零售更新:大众美容产品销售额同比增长放缓至2.0%;平均售价增长2.7%,销量下降0.7%

商贸零售2025-05-26Jefferies秋***
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零售更新:大众美容产品销售额同比增长放缓至2.0%;平均售价增长2.7%,销量下降0.7%

52-Wk4-Wk12-Wk 52-Wk4-Wk12-Wk52-Wk2.1%+--(0.7%)(1.5%)(0.6%)(2.2%)++-(1.5%)(2.8%)(2.9%)4.3%=-+1.7%0.6%1.9%17.7%+=+11.7%13.5%13.1%(0.3%)+--(5.6%)(6.0%)(2.6%)5.4%--+(0.7%)0.5%0.5%(4.7%)+--(13.3%)(11.8%)(7.3%)14.6%+--15.7%10.2%15.1%2.6%--+1.6%0.9%(0.6%)(2.8%)-+-(4.7%)(2.5%)(4.2%)(6.2%)---(12.8%)(11.2%)(6.9%)(6.4%)+--(12.6%)(11.9%)(6.6%)1.4%-+-3.0%2.1%(0.0%)(3.5%)=+-0.3%(2.5%)(5.0%)0.6%-++0.5%0.9%(2.5%)(4.5%)-+-(7.2%)(4.9%)(5.2%)(9.4%)++-(11.2%)(11.0%)(9.5%)Dollar TrendYoY Unit Growth52-Wk4-Wk12-Wk 52-Wk4-Wk12-Wk52-Wk10.0%+--0.0%(1.1%)0.7%1.9%+--(3.2%)(5.1%)(2.2%)15.4%---4.2%2.9%6.0%42.1%++-25.4%26.7%21.0%2.3%+--(5.2%)(5.7%)(6.2%)12.5%---(0.1%)0.7%(0.6%)(2.6%)+--(13.6%)(14.6%)(11.9%)63.0%+--42.8%39.1%54.3%10.6%---1.4%0.1%(0.9%)(4.4%)-+-(12.9%)(11.0%)(10.6%)(10.3%)####-#VALUE!#VALUE!(7.3%)(6.5%)---(15.6%)(16.7%)(12.0%)(3.1%)+--(10.1%)(11.2%)(8.9%)9.3%+--5.3%3.4%2.2%(3.7%)+--(7.8%)(10.3%)(11.2%)9.3%+--0.3%(2.1%)1.9%(6.5%)---(15.8%)(13.5%)(10.6%)(13.9%)+--(20.7%)(23.3%)(19.2%)Dollar Trend2YR Unit Growth 4-Wk12-Wk 52-Wk+++-+--++---++---4-Wk12-Wk 52-Wk+++-+-+++-####+++++-+ --+--+++-+=+---++++-----+-+-+-+--+Unit Trend------+-+-+-----+--------+-+-------Unit Trend Ashley Helgans * | Equity Analyst(212) 336-7367 | ahelgans@jefferies.comSydney Wagner * | Equity Associate(212) 778-8943 | swagner1@jefferies.comMolly Wylenzek ^ | Equity Analyst44 (0) 20 7029 8564 | mwylenzek@jefferies.comBryan Pinedo, CFA * | Equity Associate+1 (917) 421-1958 (office) | bpinedo@jefferies.comBlake Anderson, CFA * | Equity Associate(212) 323-7686 | banderson2@jefferies.com Exhibit 3 - Cosmetics Category Growth Y/Y.CategoryEye MakeupMascaraEye LinerEye BrowEye ShadowFace MakeupFoundationConcealerFace PowderPrimerBlushTinted MoisturizerContour/HighlightBronzerLip MakeupLip ColorLip GlossLip LinerLip BalmTotal MakeupSource: NielsenIQ; JefferiesPlease see important disclosure information on pages 7 - 13 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Exhibit 7 - T4Wk Period Market Shares.Total Company:Coty Inc.e.l.f. CosmeticsL'Oreal SARevlon Inc.By Brand:CovergirlSally HansenL'Oreal *MaybellineNYXRevlon *Almay* Multi-Category BrandsSource: NielsenIQ; JefferiesPlease see important disclosure information on pages 7 - 13 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. .CategoryMass BeautyMakeupFacial SkincareFragranceNailsHaircareTotal Company:Coty Inc.e.l.f. CosmeticsL'Oreal SARevlon Inc.By Brand:CoverGirlSally HansenL'Oreal *NYXMaybellineRevlon *Almay* Multi-Category Brands* Shading denotes relative performance to the categoryExhibit 9 - T12Wk Y/Y Performance - Makeup Category.(9.2%)(10.2%)-15%-10%Source: NielsenIQ; JefferiesTracking Price Inflation in BeautyPlease see important disclosure information on pages 7 - 13 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Exhibit 11 - Mass Beauty Pricing.(8.0)%(6.0)%(4.0)%(2.0)%0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%12.0%08/26/2309/16/2310/07/2310/28/2311/18/2312/09/2312/30/2301/20/24Source: NielsenIQ; JefferiesExhibit 13 - Mass Makeup Pricing.(4.0)%(3.0)%(2.0)%(1.0)%0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%08/26/2309/16/2310/07/2310/28/2311/18/2312/09/2312/30/2301/20/24Source: NielsenIQ; JefferiesQuarterly Category Performance:Mass beauty ended Q1 -1% Y/Y, with makeup -5%, nail -8%, skincare +2%, fragrance +13%, & hair +4%, with allcategories decelerating on a sequential basis. Unit sales lagging dollar sales in all categories point to growth still price-driven. Notably, dollars vs. unitsin fragrance was only a 90bps spread.Exhibit 15 - Mass Beauty $ Sales % Y/Y.-10.0%-5.0%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%Q2 2023Q3 2023Total MassMakeupSource: NielsenIQ; JefferiesPlease see important disclosure information on pages 7 - 13 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Source: NielsenIQ; Jefferies05/17/25Exhibit 14 - Mass Makeup Units.(15.0)%(10.0)%(5.0)%0.0%5.0%10.0%08/26/2309/16/2310/07/2310/28/2311/18/2312/09/23Source: NielsenIQ; JefferiesExhibit 16 - Unit Sales Change % Y/Y.-15.0%-10.0%-5.0%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%Q2 2023Q3 2023Total MassSource: NielsenIQ; Jefferies 12.6%3.9%-7.7%-5.0%-1.1%1.9%Q4 2023Q1 2024Q2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025NailSkincareFragranceHaircare9.9%-0.5%-1.0%-4.0%-5.9%-8.9%Q4 2023Q1 2024Q2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025MakeupNailSkincareFragranceHaircare5 Exhibit 17 - TDP Change % Y/Y.-15.0%-10.0%-5.0%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%Q2 2023Q3 2023Total MassMakeupSource: Nielsen; JefferiesPlease see important disclosure information on pages 7 - 13 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Company Valuation/RisksCoty Inc.Our valuation methodology is based on FY2 EV/EBITDA; we layer in a discount to peers given heightened recovery risk. Risks include competition, FX,mix, synergy targets, integration, and mass b