4imprint集团：具有约7%自由现金流收益率的诱人价值机会

Restricted - External UK Mid & Small CapFOUR.L/FOUR LNOVERWEIGHTEuropean MediaPrice TargetGBP 55.00lowered -8% from GBP 60.00Price (21-May-25)GBP 35.65Potential Upside/DownsideSource: Bloomberg, Barclays ResearchMarket Cap (GBP mn)Shares Outstanding (mn)Free Float (%)52 Wk Avg Daily Volume (mn)Dividend Yield (%)Return on Equity TTM (%)Current BVPS (GBP)Source: BloombergPrice PerformanceExchange-LSE52 Week rangeGBP 61.92-27.48Source: IDCLink to Barclays Live for interactive chartingEuropean MediaRichard Taylor+44 (0)20 3555 2650richard.e.taylor@barclays.comBarclays, UKSharanya Gajapathy+44 0(20) 7773 0188sharanya.gajapathy@barclays.comBarclays, UK UnchangedNEUTRALUnchanged+54.3%100428.1798.300.15.3473.346.59 Pathway for earnings unclear, but recovered earnings power in FY27 suggests an attractiveentry point, for investors prepared to take the long view:We have a low degree ofconfidence in 1) our short-term earnings forecasts, which may need to be revised depending onfactors discussed above, 2) when the market may return to normal, and 3) when a sensible"recovery" year may be for the company. However, given the strong balance sheet and a trackrecord of investing in marketing during industry downturns, we believe that the recoveredearnings power could be similar to what we expectedpre-tariffs.For FY27, we assume revenuesslightly above previous levels (noting likely price increases) and gross margins below our oldforecasts (notingtariffrisks), which implies EPS of 394.5p (a 4% downgrade), but leaves thecompany on an FY27 PE of just 12x and a FCF yield of 9%. There are likely to be many bumps inthe road, but we think the upside could be substantial for investors prepared to look throughthe noise of near-term earnings.Retain OW rating, Price Target to £55:We lower our Price Target to £55 from £60, based on anFY25 PE of 22x/FCF yield of 4.6%, (previously PE of 20x and FCF yield of 4.9%) noting that GBPhas appreciated vs USD since we last struck our Price Target. We are prepared to use a higher PErating/lower FCF yield to derive our Price Target as we look through near-term earningsdisruption, which we do not believe will be sustained in the longer term. We think the companyhas an attractive capital light business model, with high FCF conversion, and an exceptionalFY25 ROCE of 175%. Even on our below-consensus forecasts, we consider the FY25 PE rating of13x/FCF yield of 7%/dividend yield of 5% as attractive, given that we believe the longer-termearnings power will be stronger than the current year, as the company/supply chain adapt theirbusiness models as clarity ontariffsemerges.FOUR.L: Financial and Valuation Metrics EPS (USD)FY Dec20232024202520262027EPS3.76A4.15A3.41E3.55E3.95EPrevious EPS3.76A4.15A3.88E3.96E4.13EConsensus EPS3.77A4.15A3.83E3.87E4.06EP/E12.711.514.013.412.1Consensus numbers are from Bloomberg received on 22-May-2025; 12:50 GMTSource: Barclays Research2 Industry data weak in Q1, suggesting market sharegains by 4imprintFIGURE 1. FOUR's sales vs promotion industry sales in recent quarters (YoY % change)Source: Company data, ASI website 2025E2026E2027EOldNewChg (%)OldNewChg (%)OldNew1,3241,267-4%1,3641,309-4%1,4051,4062524-4%2625-4%271,3491,291-4%1,3901,333-4%1,4311,432-1%-6%-429bps3%3%32bps3%7%425397-7%437419-4%450444-2%-9%-646bps3%6%284bps3%6%31.5%30.8%-75bps31.5%31.5%bps31.4%31.0%(170)(160)-6%(175)(173)-2%(181)(181)12.6%12.4%-23bps12.6%12.9%33bps12.6%12.6%-2%-8%-600bps3%8%500bps3%5%7.938.081.9%7.937.73-2.5%7.937.932.502.48-0.5%2.492.43-2.5%2.492.46(50)(50)0%(51)(51)0%(52)(52)3.7%3.9%17bps3.7%3.8%16bps3.6%3.6%(62)(62)0%(63)(63)0%(64)(64)4.6%4.8%21bps4.5%4.7%20bps4.5%4.5%(2)(1)-7%(2)(2)-4%(2)(2)(0)(0)0%000141124-12%146131-10%151145-5%-17%3%6%3%11%10.5%9.6%-89bps10.5%9.8%-69bps10.5%10.1%550%33-12%4146128-12%149134-10%155149(36)(32)-12%(37)(33)-10%(39)(37)25%25%bps25%25%bps25%25%10996-12%112100-10%1171118.1%7.5%-66bps8.1%7.5%-53bps8.1%7.8%28.228.20%28.228.20%28.228.2387.7340.9-12%396.3355.0-10%412.6394.5-7%-18%2%4%4%11%240.0240.00%240.0240.00%249.9247.10%0%0%0%0%0%4%3%62%70%8%60%67%7%60%63%Forecast Changes - significant cuts to FY25/26forecasts Barclays estimates vs Bloomberg consensusFIGURE 4. Barclays estimates vs Bloomberg consensusUSD M (DEC Year End)2025EBarcBBG consdifferenceRevenue1,2911,338EBIT124137PBT128140Diluted EPS (c)340.9375.9DPS (c)240.0240.4Net Debt /(Cash)(104)(106)Source: Barclays Research estimates, Bloomberg consensusValuation - PT lowered to £55, retain OWFIGURE 5. Price Target, downside case, and upside caseFair value(down) upside % vs current pricePE at fair valueFCF yield at fair valueSource: Barclays Research estimates. Priced at 3370p as at 23 May27 May 2025 Downside caseBase case23-32%10.210% 2019202020211,5879601,42914%-40%49%5425835722%8%-2%86156078717%-35%41%27515822617%-43%43%32.0%28.2%28.7%173165158(154)(93)(128)18%-40%37%17.9%16.6%16.2%(31)(31)(32)3.6%5.5%4.1%(35)(29)(35)4.1%5.2%4.4%(1)(1)(1)5443119%-93%672%6.3%0.7%3.9%1(0)(0)55430(11)(1)(8)20.9%21.6%25.3%43