杰华集团2025年第一季度初步评估-兑现承诺

Restricted - External European InsuranceLarissa van Deventer+44 (0)20 3555 1527larissa.vandeventer@barclays.comBarclays, UK £180m; 1Q25e: £184m). Aviva acquired AIG's UK protection operations in April 2024. As suchthose protection sales are not in the base, but in the 1Q25 data. Bulk annuity sales were similarto those in 1Q24 at c.£1.3bn; bulk deals tend to be heavily weighted towards 2H. The high rateenvironment drove individual annuity sales up by 32%, potentially creating a demanding base,albeit one that will amortise into earnings for the next decade and support the dividend.Solvency - Lower due to dividend; net impact of debt changes broadly neutral: TheSolvency ratio came to 201% (FY24: 203%; 1Q25e: 200%). 1Q25 included the impact of the finaldividend of c.£640m declared in 1Q25 (c.-8ppts), the tender of GBP450m of preference shares(c.5.5ppts). This wasoffsetby theofferof GBP500m of RT1 debt announced on 27 March, andoperating capital generation. The impact of macro drivers was not meaningful, with UK gilts up11bps (suggesting +1ppt on the Solvency II ratio), and UK credit spreads widening by 12bps(suggesting +1%).Acquisition of Direct Line – on track: CEO Amanda Blanc stated that the acquisition remains“firmly on track”, and is expected to complete in the middle of the year, as previously stated.FIGURE 1. Comparison of key metricsGeneral insuranceGeneral insurance GWP (£m)1Q221Q231Q241Q25Barclays 1Q25eGrowthyoyBeat/missUK1,2381,4041,6691,8501,72711%7%Ireland10912312815113218%15%Canada7538499089049630%-6%Group total2,1002,3762,7052,9052,8227%3%Undiscounted COR1Q221Q231Q241Q25Barclays 1Q25eChangeyoyBeat/missUK98.9%98.4%97.3%95.3%97.6%-2.0ppt2.3pptIreland103.2%89.5%96.3%117.8%106.9%21.5ppt-10.9pptCanada90.8%92.4%93.7%96.2%94.2%2.5ppt-2.0pptGroup total95.7%95.4%95.8%96.6%96.9%0.8ppt0.3pptLifePVNBP sales (£m)1Q221Q231Q241Q25Barclays 1Q25eGrowthyoyBeat/missWealth6,0106,0476,8377,4207,0189%6%Retirement1,2791,4971,6991,7591,3764%28%Insurance69666067789190132%-1%Ireland44546663074863019%19%UK & Ireland Life total8,4308,6709,84310,8189,92510%9%VNB (£m)1Q221Q231Q241Q25Barclays 1Q25eGrowthyoyBeat/missWealth49616470639%11%Retirement172950634526%39%Insurance576056646314%1%Ireland71110121320%-5%UK & Ireland Life total13016118020918416%13%Margin1Q221Q231Q241Q25Barclays 1Q25eChangeyoyBeat/miss2 Analyst(s) Certification(s):I, Larissa van Deventer, hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about any or all of thesubject securities or issuers referred to in this research report and (2) no part of my compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to thespecific recommendations or views expressed in this research report.Important Disclosures:Barclays Research is produced by the Investment Bank of Barclays Bank PLC and itsaffiliates(collectively and each individually, "Barclays"). Allauthors contributing to this research report are Research Analysts unless otherwise indicated. The publication date at the top of the report reflects thelocal time where the report was produced and maydifferfrom the release date provided in GMT.Availability of Disclosures:Where any companies are the subject of this research report, for current important disclosures regarding those companies please refer to https://publicresearch.barclays.com or alternatively send a written request to: Barclays Research Compliance, 745 Seventh Avenue, 13th Floor, New York, NY10019 or call +1-212-526-1072.The analysts responsible for preparing this research report have received compensation based upon various factors including the firm's total revenues,a portion of which is generated by investment banking activities, the profitability and revenues of the Markets business and the potential interest of thefirm's investing clients in research with respect to the asset class covered by the analyst.Research analysts employed outside the US byaffiliatesof Barclays Capital Inc. are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA. Such non-US research analysts may not be associated persons of Barclays Capital Inc., which is a FINRA member, and therefore may not be subject to FINRA Rule2241 restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst’s account.Analysts regularly conduct site visits to view the material operations of covered companies, but Barclays policy prohibits them from accepting paymentor reimbursement by any covered company of their travel expenses for such visits.Barclays Research Department produces various types of research including, but not limited to, fundamental analysis, equity-linked analysis,quantitative analysis, and trade ideas. Recommendations contained in one type of Barclays Research maydifferfrom those contained in other types ofBarclays Research, whether as a result ofdifferingtime horizons, methodologies, or otherwise.In order to access Barclays Statement regarding Research Disse