法拉利集团：初步观点：2025年第一季度交易情况支持2025财年预期指引

April 30, 2025April 30, 2025March 26, 2025 David Kerstens * | Equity Analyst44 (0) 20 7029 8684 | dkerstens@jefferies.com Company DescriptionFerrari GroupFerrari Group is a leading, one-stop shop logistics provider of luxury deliveries, such as watches and diamonds. It works in partnership with its 100+hard luxury clients to provide bespoke solutions, making over 1.0 million air freight shipments in FY24, shipping goods worth over €190bn, with anaverage delivery time of 2.4 days. Ferrari Group realised revenues of €348.8m in FY24, implying an estimated share of 8.7% of the luxury logisticsmarket, and adjusted EBITDA of €92.4m, implying an adjusted EBITDA margin of 26.5%, making it almost twice as profitable as the averagelogistics provider. Revenues are divided into four segments, including International Services, accounting for 66% of FY24 revenues, DomesticServices (16%), Special and Other Services (11%), and Warehouse & Logistics (6%). Ferrari Group operates a global network, connecting luxuryhouses with clients in 64 countries (direct or through joint ventures and partners). Most revenues are realised in Europe, accounting for 58% ofFY24 revenues, followed by Asia (17%), North America and Brazil (14%), and the Rest of the World (11%).Company Valuation/RisksFerrari GroupOur €10.5 PT is based on 20% discount to our DCF-based €13.0 fair value, which assumes revenue growth of 7% on average per annum beyondFY25E, and an increasing EBITDA margin from 26.5% in FY24 to 27.5% by FY29E, a WACC of 8.5%, and continuing growth of 2.0%. Risk factorsto our positive investment case include a weaker than expected luxury market in a more challenging economic environment, impacting demandfor luxury logistics. As a result, operational leverage could be relatively weaker, and network expansion costs may weigh on profitability. Otherrisk factors include, but are not limited to, customer concentration risk, with the top-5 customers accounting for 32% of revenues, cost inflationfrom labour and insurance, concentrated end-market exposure, and potential pricing pressure from large customers, technological change, andcompetitors.Analyst Certification:I, David Kerstens, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) andsubject company(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations orviews expressed in this research report.Registration of non-US analysts:David Kerstens is employed by Jefferies International Limited, a non-US affiliate of Jefferies LLC and is not registered/qualified as a research analyst with FINRA. This analyst(s) may not be an associated person of Jefferies LLC, a FINRA member firm, and therefore maynot be subject to the FINRA Rule 2241 and restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held bya research analyst.As is the case with all Jefferies employees, the analyst(s) responsible for the coverage of the financial instruments discussed in this report receivescompensation based in part on the overall performance of the firm, including investment banking income. We seek to update our research as appropriate,but various regulations may prevent us from doing so. Aside from certain industry reports published on a periodic basis, the large majority of reports arepublished at irregular intervals as appropriate in the analyst's judgement.Investment Recommendation Record(Article 3(1)e and Article 7 of MAR)Recommendation PublishedRecommendation DistributedCompany Specific DisclosuresWithin the past 12 months, Jefferies Financial Group Inc., its affiliates or subsidiaries has received compensation from investment banking services fromFerrari Group PLC.Jefferies Financial Group Inc., its affiliates or subsidiaries is acting as a manager or co-manager in the underwriting or placement of securities for FerrariGroup PLC or one of its affiliates.Within the past twelve months, Ferrari Group PLC has been a client of Jefferies Financial Group Inc., its affiliates or subsidiaries and investment bankingservices are being or have been provided.Jefferies International Ltd, its affiliates or subsidiaries has, or had, within the past 12 months an agreement to provide investment services to Ferrari GroupPLC.Explanation of Jefferies RatingsBuy - Describes securities that we expect to provide a total return (price appreciation plus yield) of 15% or more within a 12-month period.Hold - Describes securities that we expect to provide a total return (price appreciation plus yield) of plus 15% or minus 10% within a 12-month period.Underperform - Describes securities that we expect to provide a total return (price appreciation plus yield) of minus 10% or less within a 12-month period.Please see important disclosure information on pages 2 - 7 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized