贝壳控股（BEKE）长期展望

2023A2024A2025E77,776.993,457.097,803.09,798.57,211.06,670.0 2026E114,596.09,487.0 The Long View: KE HoldingsInvestment Thesis / Where We Differ•BEKE is the largest integrated online and offline platform for housingtransactions and services in China, with over 20 years of history.•The company's long operating history and data insights stand out withits Agent Co-operation Network (ACN), in our view.•We expect BEKE to capture the long-term value in brokerage services onexisting and new homes in China.Base Case,$24.50, +21%•Apart from its home transaction services,we expect BEKE to further enlarge its homerenovation and furnishing business.•Its home rental service is growing fast withample upside room and positive contributionmargin.•PT of US$24.5 based on P/E valuation.Sustainability MattersTop Material Issue(s): 1) Business Ethics:The business model of real estate services companies isdependent on client trust and loyalty. Brokerage and appraisal services may come with particularlyhigh risk of conflicts of interest and negligence. To ensure long-term mutually beneficial relationships,the co should implement governance measures, including employee training, oversight, procedures,and enforcement systems focused on transparency and appropriate disclosures.Company Target(s): 1)Achieve carbon neutrality in its own operations by 2030.2)By the end of2024, reduce the total water consumption of Beijing’s main offices, Beijing Lianjia stores, and HuaqiaoAcademy, by 5% compared to the level of 2021.3)Reduce the value chain carbon emissions intensityof the Headquarters and the real estate brokerage business by 60%, and the value chain carbonemissions intensity of the home renovation and furnishing and home rental business by 30% in 2030from 2022 as the base year.Qs to Mgmt: 1)How are you positioning for potential changes in a regulatory landscape that factorin ESG?Please see important disclosure information on pages 7 - 12 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Upside Scenario,$29.40, +45%•Stronger-than-expected demand in propertymarket on macro tailwinds.•Looser regulations on existing and newhomes.•Potential market share gains.•PT of US$29.4 based on P/E valuation. Risk/Reward - 12 Month View3028262422201816141220252024Downside Scenario,$12.20, -40%•Unexpected slowdown in property market onmacro headwinds.•Stringent regulations on existing and newhomes.•Intensified competition and new entrants withmore capital resources.•PT of US$12.2 based on P/E valuation.Catalysts•Stronger-than-expected growth in GTV.•Stronger-than-expectedexisting and new homes through brokerage.•Faster-than-expected increase in take rate. penetrationfor2 (4)Home renovation and furnishing: key strategic focus is to rebuild customer-centric productand fulfillment capabilities and simplify organizational structure to improve efficiency. (5)Homerental: total no of home units under management exceeded 500K units by the end of 1Q25 withimprovement in default management and tenant renewal. (6)Beihaojia: (a) it primarily providesC2M product solutions for real estate developers and other business partners; (b) it currently has9 projects, among which 2 are self-operated, 5 with equity partnerships and 2 without capitalinvestment. BEKE has spent about RMB2.3bn on the 7 investment projects and received backnearly RMB500m from 2 projects as of 1Q25. (7)AI: (a) at To C end, it has launched AI homefinder assistant "Buding" in 10 cities for testing, which is based on DeepSeek-R1 and BEKE'shuge data and knowledge graph; (b) at To B end, it has AI agent assistant "Laike". As of Mar,over 200K agents have tested "Laike" and served more than 2.5m customers with transactionconversion up by over 10%; (c) on properties, it developed AI property maintenance assistant tohelp agents manage relationships with landlords. As of Mar, 110K agents have tested and served400K landlords with transaction conversion rate up by 3x.Valuation and risks.We maintain our Buy rating and lower PT to US$24.5 (prior US$26), basedon 22x 2026E P/E. Key risks include: (1) unexpected slowdown in the property market on macroheadwinds; (2) stringent regulations on existing and new homes, and (3) intensified competitionand new entrants with more capital resources.Please see important disclosure information on pages 7 - 12 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Exhibit 1 - BEKE US: Income Statement.Income Statement (BEKE US)RMB mnTotal RevenueYoY % changeCost of revenueGross profitGross marginSales and marketing expenseResearch and development expenseGeneral and administrative expenseOperating ProfitYoY % changeOperating marginNon-GAAP operating profitYoY % changeNon-GAAP operating marginNet IncomeYoY % changeNet marginNon-GAAP net incomeYoY % changeNon-GAAP net marginSource: Company, Jefferies estimatesPlease see important disclosure information on pages 7 -