康乐保（COLOB DC）下调至持有评级：评估风险回报平衡

Issuer of report:HSBC Securities and CapitalMarkets (India) Private LimitedView HSBC Global Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.comHSBC Global Research Podcasts| Listen to our insightsFind out moreDOWNGRADE TO HOLDTARGET PRICE(DKK)PREVIOUS TARGET(DKK)670.00860.00SHARE PRICE(DKK)UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE634.20+5.6%(as of13 May 2025)MARKET DATAMarket cap(DKKm)133308.8Free floatMarket cap(USDm)19990.2BBGCOLOB DC3m ADTV (USDm)27.7RICCOLOb.COFINANCIALS AND RATIOS(DKK)Year to09/2024a09/2025e09/2026eHSBC EPS22.3424.1726.87HSBC EPS (prev)22.3424.7128.60Change (%)0.0-2.2-6.1Consensus EPS22.6324.4127.28PE (x)28.426.223.6Dividend yield (%)3.52.53.4EV/EBITDA (x)17.416.915.1ROE (%)28.530.031.952-WEEK PRICE(DKK)Source:LSEGIBES, HSBC estimatesShubhangi Gupta*,Ph.D.Analyst, Life Sciences & Healthcare ResearchHSBC Securities and Capital Markets (India) PrivateLimitedshubhangi.gupta@hsbc.co.in+91 80 4555 2143Rajesh Kumar*Head, European Life Sciences & Healthcare ResearchHSBC Bankplcrajesh4kumar@hsbcib.com+44 20 7991 1629Sezgi Oezener*, CFAAnalyst, Life Sciences & Healthcare ResearchHSBC Continental Europe SA, Germanysezgi.oezener@hsbc.de+49 211 9103290* Employed by a non-USaffiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulationsEquitiesHealth Care Equipment &SuppliesDenmark05/2411/2405/25Target price: 670.00High: 942.00 Low: 634.20 Current: 634.20 ◆◆◆ 63%09/2027e30.4932.40-5.930.5420.83.813.633.9590.00790.00990.00 2Financial statementsYear to09/2024a09/2025e09/2026eProfit & loss summary(DKKm)Revenue27030.027930.330083.0EBITDA8289.08553.89524.5Depreciation & amortisation0.00.0Operating profit/EBIT7320.07303.28480.8Net interest-925.0-752.0-634.3PBT6395.06551.37846.5HSBC PBT6691.07064.28140.7Taxation-1343.0-2620.5-1790.9Net profit5052.03930.86055.6HSBC net profit5024.85447.16055.6Cash flow summary(DKKm)Cash flow from operations1927.03988.85957.4Capex-1346.0-1393.1-1500.5Cash flow frominvestment-1336.0-1393.1-1500.5Dividends-4720.0-3537.7-4844.5Change in net debt122.0321.3-232.3FCF equity328.02595.74456.9Balance sheet summary(DKKm)Intangible fixed assets30332.030048.729805.5Tangible fixed assets6571.07387.38308.6Current assets10444.010343.311174.2Cash & others788.0466.7699.0Total assets48073.048505.250014.3Operating liabilities15960.015972.216270.1Gross debt11557.011557.011557.0Net debt10769.011090.310858.0Shareholders' funds17942.018362.119573.2Invested capital30599.031340.432319.2Ratio, growth and per share analysisYear to09/2024a09/2025e09/2026eY-o-y % changeRevenue10.33.3EBITDA9.63.2Operating profit8.1-0.2PBT6.12.4HSBC EPS-0.68.2Ratios (%)Revenue/IC (x)0.80.9ROIC20.316.6ROE28.530.0ROA10.58.1EBITDA margin30.730.6Operating profit margin27.126.1EBITDA/net interest (x)9.011.4Net debt/equity60.060.4Netdebt/EBITDA (x)1.31.3CF from operations/net debt17.936.0Per share data(DKK)EPS Rep (diluted)22.4617.4426.87HSBC EPS (diluted)22.3424.1726.87DPS22.0015.7021.49Book value79.7881.4686.84Financials & valuation:Coloplast Source: HSBCNote:Priced at close of 13 May 2025 KeychartsImplied fair value from scenario analysis (DKK)Source: HSBC. Priced as of close at 13 May 2024Revenue estimatesfor Coloplast (DKKm)Source: HSBC estimates, Company12mforwardPEfor Coloplast vs peersSource: LSEG Workspace63401002003004005006007008009001,000Bear case05,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00020112013Ostomy CareInterventional UrologyVoice & Respiratory Care Risk-reward setup balancedWe consider scenario analysis and see the risk-reward setupbalanced.1.For ourbear case, we model FY25-28 revenue CAGR of 6.2%and EPS CAGR of 10.4%. The implied fair value in our bearcaseimplies33% downside to thecurrent market price (CMP).2.For ourbull case, we model FY25-28 revenue CAGR of 8.5%and EPS CAGR of 12.6%. Our implied fair valueimplies44%upside to the CMP.Risk to estimate cuts1.Marketgrowth for Coloplast’s core businesses (ostomy,continence, wound care ex-Kerecis, interventional urology) islow to mid-single digit and Coloplast has gained market sharesin the past. However,postthe acquisition of Atos and Kerecis,growthin core business has been challenged down to executionissues as perthecompany.2.Consensus is baking in return to growth in ostomy and woundcare in H2, where growth estimates look higher than peerConvaTec(CTEC LN,CMP 263p,Buy). In a scenario, where thecompany cannot reverse market share losses in H2, we couldsee further downward estimate revisions.Coloplast trading at adiscountColoplast is trading at FY3 PE of 20.8xwith16%impliedFY3 EPSgrowth against market weighted average of 30.6x and 13%respectively for MedTech peers (source: LSEG Workspace).Theshares have been trading at 12m forward PE of 24.3x which is adiscount to 5-year historical multiple average of 35.8x Key debatesThe keydebateson the stock include CEO change, lower growth and margin, market sharelosses and long-term goals. According to the company, the major reason for managementchange isnon-deliverance oforganic growth target, a lotofwhich was inter