德拉亚金融公司（DERAYAH AB）持有评级：风险回报平衡

Issuer of report:HSBC Bank Middle East Ltd,UAE branchView HSBC Global Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.comListen to our insightsFind out moreHSBC Global Research PodcastsHOLDTARGET PRICE(SAR)PREVIOUS TARGET(SAR)32.2032.20SHARE PRICE(SAR)UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE28.70+12.2%(as of15 May 2025)MARKET DATAMarket cap(SARm)7,167Free floatMarket cap (USDm)1,911BBGDERAYAH3m ADTV (USDm)NARIC4084.SEFINANCIALS AND RATIOS(SAR)Year to12/2024a12/2025e12/2026e12/2027eHSBC EPS1.781.802.13HSBC EPS (prev)1.781.872.11Change (%)0.0-3.70.9Consensus EPS-1.802.13PE (x)16.116.013.5Dividend yield (%)4.14.45.2EV/EBITDA (x)12.011.09.6ROE (%)50.243.343.552-WEEK PRICE(SAR)Source:LSEGIBES, HSBC estimatesAybek Islamov*, CFAAnalyst, EEMEA BanksHSBC Bank Middle East Ltd, UAE branchaybek.islamov@hsbc.com+971 4 423 6921* Employed by a non-US affiliate ofHSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulationsEquitiesDiversified Financial SrvcsSaudi Arabia26.0034.0042.0005/2411/2405/25Target price: 32.20High: 40.00 Low: 28.25 Current: 28.70 ◆◆◆ 55.9%AB2.562.550.42.5611.26.38.743.7 2Financial statementsYear to12/2024a12/2025e12/2026e12/2027eP&L summary(SARm)Revenue8778649681,053Revenue from customer contracts635665721744o/w brokerage490501524509o/w AM145165197235o/w other (advisory)----Interest income203199238279Gain/loss on investments36-830Dividend income2---Expenses(359)(320)(368)(411)EBITDA538569626670Operating profit / EBIT518544600642Associate income(72)(90)(60)10PBT456465551664Taxation(12)(16)(19)(23)Net profit444448532641HSBC netprofit444448532641Balance sheet summary(SARm)Total assets1,2261,3781,5541,803Current assets457481506532Cash & Investments65687275Fixed assets105110116121Goodwill & other Intangibles19202223Associate investment1911014151Total liabilities269263221202Bank loans----Shareholders' equity9581,1151,3321,601ROAAdeconstruction, growth and per share analysisYear to12/2024a12/2025e12/2026e12/2027ePer share (SAR)EPS reported1.781.802.132.56HSBC EPS1.781.802.132.56DPS1.171.261.491.80Tangible BVPS3.774.395.256.32y/y change (%)Revenue41(1)129Revenue from customer contracts35583o/w brokerage2625(3)o/w AM78142019Interest income50(2)2017Gain/loss on investments111NANANADividend incomeExpenses40(11)1512EBITDA416107Operating profit / EBIT415107Associate income15825(33)(117)PBT3121920Net profit3511920HSBC EPS (recurring)3511920ROAA deconstruction (%)Revenue77.366.366.062.7Expenses(31.7)(24.5)(25.1)(24.5)EBITDA47.443.742.739.9Operating profit / EBIT45.641.840.938.3PBT40.235.737.639.6Net Profit39.134.436.338.2Financials & valuation:Derayah Financial Co Financial statementsIncome statement(SARm)2021Revenue customer contracts575-o/w brokerage510Non-margin & intl. trading428Margin trading82-o/w asset mngmt.65-o/w otherInterest incomeInvestment incomeTotal operating income589Operating costs(218)(284)Net operating income371Other income / (expense)Associate resultIncome beforezakat378Zakat(13)Net income365Dividend40Retained earnings325Source: Company data, HSBC Research estimatesRatios2021Cost/income37%Net operating margin63%Zakat rate3%Net income margin62%ROA49.1%ROTE124.0%Source: Company data, HSBC Research estimatesKey revenue margins(inbp)2021Non-margin & intl.trading10.9Margin trading528Asset management fee97Int yld on AuC& omnibus client cashInv. yld on prop book & cash (%)4.1(1.4)Source:Company data, HSBC Research estimates Growth(%)Revenue customer contractsTotal operating incomeNet operating incomeNet incomeValue tradedTFF*AuMAUC & Omnibus client cashSource: Company data,HSBC Research estimates*Trade Finance FundBalance sheet(SARm)InvestmentsAssociateMargin client recvbl.CashOtherTotal assetsLiabilitiesEquitySource: Company data, HSBC Research estimatesMedium-termcompanyguidance vs HSBC expectationsRevenueCAGR-Brokerage-Asset management-Special commission incomeTotaloperating incomeCAGREfficiency ratioReturn onequityDividend payoutSource: Company data, HSBC Research estimates; *2029e Risksto our viewDownside risks:1) Higher-than-expected capex andIT expenses; 2) Lower-than-expected growth in AuMs;3) Employee cost inflation due to strong competition forhighly qualified talent across the financial industry;4)Delay in breakeven for D360 weighing on Derayah’snet income and 5) The current decline in the domesticand global markets may impact investor appetite whichmay adversely impact trading volumes and AuMs.Upside risks:1) Higher than estimated tradedvolumes and AUM growth; 2) Better-than-expectedbrokerage and asset management margins; 3) D360generating profits earlier than anticipated; 4) Newasset classes like cryptocurrency among others towiden the TAM for companies like Derayah;5)Increased volatility in the domestic and globalmarkets may lead to higher trading volumes. ValuationWe use a DCF model tovalue the business. Our DCF fair valueestimate is based on the present value of cash flows and theterminal value.Our DCF methodology comprises two stages:explicit (2025-29e) and transition (2030-34e).The f