摩根大通（JPM US）投资者日亮点——价值创造机器继续运转

Issuer of report:HSBC Securities (USA) Inc.View HSBC GlobalResearch at:https://www.research.hsbc.comListen to our insightsFind out moreHSBC Global Research PodcastsMAINTAINHOLDTARGET PRICE(USD)PREVIOUS TARGET(USD)237.00237.00SHARE PRICE(USD)UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE267.56-11.4%(as of16 May 2025)MARKET DATAMarket cap(USDm)743,575Free floatMarket cap(USDm)743,575BBG3m ADTV (USDm)2,814RICFINANCIALS AND RATIOS(USD)Year to12/2024a12/2025eHSBC EPS18.06HSBC EPS (prev)18.06Change (%)0.0Consensus EPS18.98PE (x)14.8Dividend yield (%)1.8P/NAV2.7ROE inc. gwill (%)16.652-WEEK PRICE(USD)Source:LSEGIBES, HSBC estimatesSaul MartinezHead of US Financials ResearchHSBC Securities (USA) Inc.saul1.martinez@us.hsbc.com+1 212 525 6874Calvin Carlo*Analyst, US FinancialsHSBC Mexico, S.A., Institucion de Banca Multiple, GrupoFinanciero HSBCcalvin.carlo@hsbc.com.mx+52 55 8551 5022* Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulationsEquitiesUniversalBanksUnited States05/2411/24Target price: 237.00High: 279.95 Low: 191.53 Current: 267.56 ◆◆◆ 17.9917.9918.29 99%JPM USJPM.N12/2026e12/2027e19.3122.3119.3122.310.00.00.019.3821.3314.913.912.02.22.53.02.62.52.415.015.317.1180.00240.00300.0005/25 2Financial statementsYear to12/2024a12/2025e12/2026e12/2027eP&L summary(USDm)Net interest income93,06094,65594,97698,172Net fees/commissions87,53381,40784,28390,210Total income180,593176,061179,259188,382Operating expense-91,797-94,841-97,270-100,326Baddebt charge-10,678-12,490-11,120-11,028HSBC PBT78,11868,73070,86977,028PBT78,11868,73070,86977,028Taxation-19,647-17,493-18,604-20,220Minoritiesand others-1,603-1,601-1,700-1,800Attributable profit56,86849,63650,56455,008HSBC attributable profit51,98349,63650,56455,008Balance sheet summary(USDm)Ordinary equity324,708330,395324,450319,515HSBC ordinary equity324,708330,395324,450319,515Customer loans1,347,9881,372,6131,416,6071,466,443Debt securities holdings681,320674,464688,054701,815Customer deposits2,406,0322,571,3162,649,0352,728,507Interest earning assets3,537,5673,690,9923,586,0823,644,676Total assets4,002,8144,132,9224,185,7424,241,254Capital (%)RWA(USDm)1,757,4601,756,4921,799,8691,844,946Core tier 115.715.915.114.5Ratio, growth & per share analysisYear to12/2024a12/2025e12/2026e12/2027eY-on-y % changeTotal income11.2-2.51.8Operating expense5.33.32.6Pre-provision profit18.1-8.50.9EPS21.7-8.97.315.6HSBC EPS6.4-0.37.315.6DPS17.125.013.317.6NAV (including goodwill)11.16.24.0Ratios (%)Cost/income ratio50.853.954.353.3Baddebt charge0.80.90.8Customer loans/deposits56.053.453.553.7ROE (including goodwill)16.615.015.317.1Per share data(USD)EPS reported (diluted)19.7517.9919.3122.31HSBC EPS (diluted)18.0617.9919.3122.31DPS4.806.006.808.00NAV97.30103.72107.45111.91NAV (including goodwill)116.07123.22128.10133.81Financials & valuation:JP Morgan Chase Some updates on guidance.Continued from pg1JPMreiterated 2025 firmwide NII (ex Markets) guidanceof USD90bn despite fewer rate cutsbeing priced into the curve versus when the company reported Q1 2025 results on 11 April.Nonetheless, management highlighted that some upside bias (maybe USD1bn) exists currently.Expenses are still expected at USD95bnfor 2025. Consumer credit remains benign and the2025 card NCO ratio expectation remains at c3.6%. The company also provided an initial cardNCO ratio range of 3.6%-3.9% for 2026. For Q2 2025, investment banking fees are tracking todecline mid-teens y-o-y (HSBC: down c7%) and markets income to rise mid-to high-singledigits y-o-y (HSBC: up c11%).ValuationCurrent price:Target price:Up/downside:Methodology:We derive our target price using a two-stageresidual income model that discounts excess returns over a 10-year forecast period and in the terminal period.Residual income model:Long-term ROE of 16.0%, COE of9.5%, based on a risk-free rate of 3.75%, equity risk premium of4.25%, 10-year historical beta of 1.12, and additional riskpremium of 1.0%, and a long-term growth rate of 4%. (allunchanged).Our TP of USD237.00 remains unchanged,implying11.4%downside. Our Hold rating reflects our view that JPMorganremains well-positioned to maintain its market leadershipacross business segments and above-peer profitability. 3Risksto our viewUpside risks:Better-than-expected loan growth,better-than-expected economic environment, a morefavorable regulatory environment than expected,higher-than-expected net interest income, better-than-expected cost performance, a greater-than-expectedrecovery in investment banking fees, and lower-than-expectedcredit losses.Downside risks:Softer-than-expected economicenvironment, greater-than-expected pressure on netinterest income, worse-than-expected credit quality,especially in credit cards, weaker-than-expected loangrowth, a failure of investment banking fees to grow asmuch as expected, greater-than-expected costpressures, and a less favorable regulatory environmentthan expected under a Trump administration. 4Disclosure appendixAnalystCe