2025年第一季度住宿业关税导致的短暂停滞之后重回正轨

What did we learn this quarter? Around and post liberation day, there have been pocketsof demand weakness: inbound into the US has fallen (Expedia: down 7%) and domesticdemand has softened, pushing US RevPAR to around flat. This is a sizable reduction fromexpectations at the beginning of the year. China is also running below beginning of yearexpectations on elevated supply. The better news is that those travelers skipping the US arestill traveling (Airbnb said Canada to Mexico up 27%) and overall non-US/China performancelooks robust. Luxury is exceeding expectations (Park Hyatt RevPAR up 13% in Q1) and thislooks the first demand downturn where high-end holds up vs the market. For those with highUS exposure, guidance has come down but not far off our/consensus revised expectationsand downgrades have been minimal. In this context it makes sense that the stocks havelargely round tripped: Hilton from $247 on 1/1 to a low of $201 (down 19%) post LiberationDay and now back to $252. This largely puts us back where we started, aside from nowhaving a current test case that, contrary to 2009, luxury holds up better in a recession — andhence we retain our preference for the discounted Hyatt, Accor & Marriott — which we thinkshould not suffer from the current mainstream US consumer pullback.Asset light model stress tested again … still robust.Travel demand has undoubtedlyweakened from early year expectations and although it could pick back up again, currentexpectations seem prudently grounded around flat US demand/RevPAR. For other travelsectors, this has meant sizable downgrades: FY25 EPS expectations are down 27% atDAL, 18% at HOST; they are down just 1% at Hilton. The biggest driver of EPS, i.e. systemgrowth, remains intact, the global footprint is offsetting US weakness, and the asset-lightbusiness model suffers from little operational deleveraging. The recent turmoil looks like afurther reminder of just how quality the model is.High end outperformance a positive surprise (to some), but not yet reflected invaluation.One of my more illustrious peers asked on the IHG Q1 call: “if we look backto 2009, low-end hotels outperformed, so it doesn't seem quite logical to expect high-end hotels to outperform persistently through if we did want to be a bit more cautious onthe macro.”. Despite a Q1 of robust luxury outperformance (Ritz-Carlton RevPAR +8.6%,Fairfield +0.9%), there is a common view that it can’t last. However, (as we set out here:Global Hotels & OTAs: What if the GFC happened today? A reassessment of the cyclicalrisks) Luxury hotels face a very different environment today, with much lower supply growthoutlook, a differentiated value proposition, and a customer base which has seen littlepressure on its disposable income through the pandemic and a rapid expansion in wealth.Outside the US markets have been strongand likely even benefiting from a lack ofdemand into the US. APAC ex China grew RevPAR double digits in Q1, MEA HSD andEurope MSD — in line with expectations. Accor has the highest exposure of the hotel groupsto non-US demand and although it didn't escape the volatility of recent months, its YTDshare price is slightly up, ahead of sector average.www.bernsteinresearch.com BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLETickerRatingAC.FPOHLTMOLDHOOLDIHG.LNMOLDMAROOLDWTB.LNOMEL.SMOEDMSPXPRICE TARGET CHANGE IN BOLDO - Outperform, M - Market-Perform, U - Underperform, NR - Not Rated, CS - Coverage SuspendedSource: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis.INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONSWe rate Hyatt, Marriott, Accor, and Melia Outperform; Hilton and IHG Market-Perform; We trim our price targets slightly to reflectchanges to our estimates during Q1 reporting and macroeconomic disruption impacting wider market valuations, meaningslightly reduced valuation multiples.25Q1 stock notes:Hilton 1Q25: Small (downgrade) Luxury (outperforming) Hotels (still being built) of the World (which still loves Hilton)Hyatt 1Q25: How great is this Rev-Party?Marriott 1Q25: Always look on the bright side of lifeIHG 1Q25: As reliable as a Big MacAccor 1Q25: Revenues heading in the right direction, no significant changes in demand trends in its key marketsMelia: No more salsa in Cuba – 1Q25 EBITDA missGLOBAL HOTELS & LEISURE 2 DETAILS2025 GUIDANCEInto Q1 results much of the focus from investors has been on the potential macroeconomic disruption resulting from theimplementation of tariffs, with hotel stocks suffering (15-25% down from the start of 2025 to one day post ‘Liberation Day’)on fears that the stress on consumers as a result of tariff implementation would lead to a material decline in lodging spend.However, with the postponement of tariff implementation, and a series of relatively benign guidance downgrades from lodgingcompanies based on recent volatility in customer booking patterns, lodging stocks have recovered much of the YTD losses.Guidance downgrades followed a clear pattern— those guiding based on April data saw the biggest FY downgrades, whilethose