3月建筑许可数据翻新与改造（R&R）增长加速；住宅新建设仍然疲软

Stephen Volkmann, CFA * | Equity Analyst(212) 284-2031 | svolkmann@jefferies.comSaree Boroditsky, CFA * | Equity Analyst(212) 284-2280 | sboroditsky@jefferies.comPhilip Ng, CFA * | Equity Analyst(212) 336-7369 | png@jefferies.comGlynis Johnson ^ | Equity Analyst44 (0) 20 7029 8677 | glynis.johnson@jefferies.comAllen Wells, CFA ^ | Equity Analyst44 (0) 20 7029 8922 | awells@jefferies.comPriyal Woolf ^ | Equity Analyst44 (0) 20 7029 8183 | pwoolf@jefferies.comChirag Patel * | Equity Associate(212) 284-1773 | cpatel@jefferies.comJosef Nieto * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 778-8495 | snietophillips@jefferies.comJamie Simonson * | Equity Associate+1 (917) 344-1852 | jsimonson1@jefferies.com Proprietary Permit Tracker.Our suite of building permit trackers adjusts and parses BuildFaxdata to compensate for volatility in the reporting of permit data. The data tracks residential andcommercial end markets in the US, with further visibility into specialty end markets such as HVAC,Electrical, Swimming Pools, Roofing, etc. Our permit data is lagged 45 days but generally leadsother publicly available data and company reported trends. Our data is subject to restatements form-3 and m-2 of ~2% and ~4%, respectively.Please see important disclosure information on pages 8 - 13 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Exhibit 1 - Seasonally Adjusted Residential New Construction Permits vs Seasonally Adjusted Housing Starts.-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%Seasonally Adjusted Housing StartsSource: Jefferies, BuildFax, U.S. Census BureauExhibit 2 - Seasonally Adjusted Residential Existing Structure Permits (TTM) vs LIRA Moving 4 QuarterChange.-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%Seasonally Adjusted Residential Existing Structure Permits (TTM)Source: Jefferies, BuildFax, HarvardExhibit 3 - Seasonally Adj. Residential Housing Permits (Census) v. Seasonally Adj. Residential NewConstruction Permits.-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%Seasonally Adjusted Census Residential Housing Permits TotalSource: Jefferies, BuildFax, Census BureauExhibit 4 - Total Commercial Construction Spending vs. Seasonally Adjusted Commercial New ConstructionPermits.-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%Seasonally Adjusted Commercial New Construction PermitsSource: Jefferies, BuildFax, FREDPlease see important disclosure information on pages 8 - 13 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Jefferies'New Resi Permit data leadsreportedhousing starts on a seasonallyadjusted basis by 1-4 months. March datareads -14.5%, down from February's read of-8.5%. Stocks impacted: BLD, BLDR, CRH, IBP,HEI, HOLN, OC, SGO, ITWOurpermitdataforresidentialrefurbishments and upgrades has a strongtrack record of leading Harvard's LIRA index,a widely tracked indicator of refurbishmentdata. If anything, the lead may be longerthan we'd like at 6-12 months. Coming out ofthe GFC the lead was nearly 2 years. Stocksimpacted: AMWD, CRH, FBIN, FERG, MAS,MHK, SGO, SIKA, HLMN, ITWJefferies' residential permit index is highlycorrelatedwith Census Bureau residentialpermitdata.As such,it provides littleadditional insight but does corroborate ourdata set.Similarto our other permit data,ourCommercialNew Construction data leadsCensus Commercial Construction spendingchange by 6-12mths. Permits were up 7.9% inMarch (easier comps) following LSD declinesfor most of the last year. Stocks impacted:AWI, EXP, MLM, SUM, VMC, CAT, URI, TEX,OSK3 Exhibit 5 - Seasonally Adj. Residential Construction Spending v. Seasonally Adj. Total Residential Permits v.Seasonally Adj. Residential Housing Permits (Census).-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%Seasonally Adjusted Residential Construction Spending (Census)Seasonally Adjusted Census Residential Housing Permits TotalSource: Jefferies, BuildFax, U.S. Census BureauExhibit 6 - HARDI Distributor Sales Growth vs. Total HVAC Permits.-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%Source: Jefferies, HARDI, BuildFaxExhibit 7 - AHRI Commercial HVAC Units vs Seasonally Adjusted Commercial HVAC Permits.-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%Source: Jefferies, BuildFax, AHRIExhibit 8 - AHRI Residential HVAC Permits vs Seasonally Adjusted Residential HVAC Permits.-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%Source: Jefferies, BuildFax, AHRIPlease see important disclosure information on pages 8 - 13 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Ourpermit data allows us to make cutsto best track various macro and industrymetrics. In this chart, our data – representedby the medium blue line – does a better job ofleading resi construction spending becauseit contains both new and existing unit resipermits. Our March total resi permit datareads up 0.8% with existing structures (88%of total) up 3.8% y/y.OurNon-Seasonally Adjusted total HVACpermitshave a~0.7 correlation withHARDI distributor sales, demonstrating somereliability as a tool to read unadjusted end-market