追踪泳池3月泳池建设许可恢复增长

Y/Y ChangeExhibit 2 - 1Q25 US new residential pool permitsincreased 1% Y/Y.(30%)(20%)(10%)0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%020406080100120140160Jun-20Sep-20Dec-20Mar-21Jun-21Sep-21Dec-21Mar-22Jun-22Sep-22Dec-22Mar-23Jun-23Sep-23Dec-23Mar-24Jun-24Sep-24Dec-24Mar-25Y/Y ChangeIndex (Jan 2000=100)Quarterly Index (SA)Y/Y ChangeSource: Buildfax, JefferiesY/Y ChangeSep-22Oct-22Exhibit 4 - Mar. US seasonal market residential poolpermits declined 2% Y/Y.(40%)(20%)0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%050100150200250300Nov-20Mar-21Jul-21Nov-21Mar-22Jul-22Nov-22Mar-23Jul-23Nov-23Mar-24Jul-24Nov-24Mar-25Y/Y ChangeSA Index (Jan 2000 = 100)Index (SA)Y/Y ChangeSource: Buildfax, Jefferies Saree Boroditsky, CFA * | Equity Analyst(212) 284-2280 | sboroditsky@jefferies.comStephen Volkmann, CFA * | Equity Analyst(212) 284-2031 | svolkmann@jefferies.comLucas Ferhani ^ | Equity Analyst44 (0) 20 7548 4728 | lferhani@jefferies.comJames Ko * | Equity Associate+1 (312) 588-5155 | jko@jefferies.com Exhibit 5 - Monthly Pool Permits.020406080100120140160180Jan-00Aug-00Mar-01Oct-01May-02Dec-02Jul-03Feb-04Sep-04Index (Jan 2000 = 100)Source: Buildfax, JefferiesExhibit 6 - Quarterly Pool Permits.020406080100120140160Dec-01Jun-02Dec-02Jun-03Dec-03Jun-04Dec-04Jun-05Dec-05Index (Jan 2000=100)Source: Buildfax, JefferiesPlease see important disclosure information on pages 4 - 10 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Exhibit 7 - 2024 US residential pool permits declined 13% Y/Y.02040608010012014016020072008Index (Jan 2000=100)Source: Buildfax, JefferiesPlease see important disclosure information on pages 4 - 10 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Company Valuation/RisksFluidra SAValuation:We set our price target using a target EV/EBITA multiple, backed by a DCF analysis. We also look at key US swimming pool players, otherEU M&A roll-up stories, and global peers in the leisure sector (recreational vehicles, sports & outdoor).Risks:weaker residential market, weaker new build demand, worse/longer inventory destocking, negative operating leverage, competition impactingmarket share, weather, US tariffs.Hayward Holdings, Inc.We value the shares on EV/EBITDA multiples based on its peer group and recent trading performance. Risks include global economic growthand discretionary spending, reliance on distribution and customer concentration, seasonality and weather impacts, COVID-19 impact, and sponsoroverhang.Pentair Ltd.We value the shares based on a combination of EV/EBITDA and PE multiples taking into account both the historical range over the prior cycle andpeer group. Risks include: global economic growth, weather, non-residential and housing markets, currency translation, and acquisitions.Pool CorporationWe value the shares based on a combination of EV/Sales and EV/EBITDA multiples, taking into account both the historical range over prior cycle andthe peer group. Risks include: housing cycles, higher interest rates and, to a minor extent, potential new online business models.Analyst Certification:I, Saree Boroditsky, CFA, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) andsubject company(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or viewsexpressed in this research report.I, Stephen Volkmann, CFA, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies)and subject company(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations orviews expressed in this research report.I, Lucas Ferhani, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) and subjectcompany(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressedin this research report.I, James Ko, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) and subjectcompany(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressedin this research report.Registration of non-US analysts:Lucas Ferhani is employed by Jefferies International Limited, a non-US affiliate of Jefferies LLC and is not registered/qualifiedas a research analyst with FINRA. This analyst(s) may not be an associated person of Jefferies LLC, a FINRA member firm, and therefore may not be subjectto the FINRA Rule 2241 and restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a resea