携程集团（TCOM US）：迈向稳定增长之路

Issuer of report:The Hongkong and ShanghaiBanking Corporation LimitedView HSBC Global Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.comHSBC Taiwan Conference20254 | 19 - 20 May 2025RegisterMAINTAIN BUYTARGET PRICE(USD)PREVIOUS TARGET(USD)78.0075.00SHARE PRICE(USD)UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE67.10+16.2%(as of19 May 2025)MARKET DATAMarket cap(USDm)43,857Free float51%Market cap (USDm)43,857BBGTCOM US3m ADTV (USDm)277RICTCOM.OQFINANCIALS AND RATIOS(CNY)Year to12/2024a12/2025e12/2026e12/2027eHSBC EPS26.2226.0829.9734.89HSBC EPS (prev)26.2225.5229.4134.10Change (%)0.02.21.9Consensus EPS26.1125.3429.5133.78PE (x)18.518.616.213.9Dividend yield (%)0.11.21.3EV/EBITDA (x)16.214.111.8ROE (%)13.512.012.813.852-WEEK PRICE(USD)Source:LSEGIBES, HSBC estimatesParash Jain*Global Head of Transport & Logistics ResearchThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedparashjain@hsbc.com.hk+852 2996 6717Deepak Maurya*, CFAAnalyst, Asia TransportThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limiteddeepakmaurya@hsbc.com.hk+852 2822 4292Bruce Chu*, CFAAssociate, Asia TransportThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedbruce.y.h.chu@hsbc.com.hk+852 2996 6621* Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBCSecurities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulationsEquitiesInternet Software & ServicesChina34.0058.5083.0005/2411/2405/25Target price: 78.00High: 75.06 Low: 39.32 Current: 67.10 ◆◆◆ 2.31.69.6 2Financial statementsYear to12/2024a12/2025e12/2026e12/2027eProfit & loss summary(CNYm)Revenue53,29461,43670,817EBITDA17,07018,83621,768Depreciation & amortisation-851-891-921Operating profit/EBIT16,21917,94520,847Net interest6069811,166PBT17,00316,86819,581HSBC PBT17,96319,32522,414Taxation-2,604-3,382-3,922Net profit17,06715,48317,783HSBC net profit18,04117,94020,616Cash flow summary(CNYm)Cash flow from operations19,62512,56311,201Capex-591-922-1,062Cash flowfrom investment-12,762-3,878-2,749Dividends-196-3,690-4,238Change in net debt-23,226-10,641-9,138-13,949FCF equity19,03411,64110,138Balance sheet summary(CNYm)Intangible fixed assets60,91160,91160,911Tangible fixed assets18,64818,67918,820Current assets112,120124,897136,518154,985Cash & others79,56886,25292,704104,192Total assets242,581256,388269,151288,860Operating liabilities59,53265,23868,900Gross debt39,56735,61032,924Net debt-40,001-50,642-59,781-73,729Shareholders' funds143,482155,540167,328181,242Invested capital52,57952,99654,645Ratio, growth and per share analysisYear to12/2024a12/2025e12/2026e12/2027eY-o-y % changeRevenue19.715.315.3EBITDA22.110.315.6Operating profit23.310.616.2PBT59.2-0.816.1HSBC EPS32.2-0.614.9Ratios (%)Revenue/IC (x)1.01.21.3ROIC25.927.231.0ROE13.512.012.8ROA6.95.86.3EBITDA margin32.030.730.7Operating profit margin30.429.229.4EBITDA/net interest (x)Net debt/equity-27.9-32.6-35.7Net debt/EBITDA (x)-2.3-2.7-2.7CF from operations/net debtPer share data(CNY)EPS Rep (diluted)24.8122.5025.85HSBC EPS (diluted)26.2226.0829.97DPS0.305.636.46Book value220.05237.16255.13Financials & valuation:Trip.com Group Source: HSBCNote:Priced at close of 19 May 2025 Trip.com: 1Q25resultsTrip.com’s 1Q25 revenue came inlargelywithin expectation, up 16% y-o-y helped by robust23% y-o-y growth in hotel revenue. Transport revenue was up 8% y-o-y.Packaged tourscontinued to lag with only 7% y-o-y growth.Marketing spending surged 30% y-o-y to 21.4% of revenue but was 11% below HSBCe. Totalopex was 5% lower than HSBCe contributing to a 7% beat in non-GAPP operating income. Adj.OP margin was 29.2% or 2.4ppts lower y-o-y but 2ppts ahead of HSBCe.Exhibit1. Trip.com: 1Q25resultssummary1Q251Q24% y-o-y13,83011,90516%11,1259,66715%3,3052,89514%2,9582,27430%81973312%4804507%7,5626,35219%3,5633,3157%4,0433,7657%1,49185275%5,0544,16721%4,2774,312-1%4,1884,0553%5,5414,49623%5,4185,0008%9478837%57351112%1,3711,03133%80.4%81.2%-0.8ppt29.2%31.6%-2.4ppt30.3%34.1%-3.8pptSource: Company data, HSBC estimates,Visible Alphaconsensus 4Q24% q-o-qHSBCevs.HSBCeCons.vs. Cons12,7449%13,902-1%13,80810,10410%11,214-1%11,1843,1784%3,2671%3,2463,333-11%3,337-11%3,296-10%833-2%834-2%8424595%500-4%5027,803-3%7,938-5%7,8852,30155%3,2769%2,76046%3,7777%3,801572516%200646%2,358114%3,47645%2,15798%3,47623%3,03838%3,9765%3,8365,1787%5,661-2%5,4854,78013%5,3302%5,3988709%971-3%1,004702-18%5622%5501,23811%1,392-1%1,39079.3%1.2ppt80.7%-0.2ppt81.0%-0.6ppt21.7%7.6ppt27.2%2.1ppt27.5%1.7ppt23.8%6.4ppt28.6%1.7ppt27.8%2.5ppt 30%-1%2%-3%-4%-4%6%9%1%0%-6%4%-1% Trip.com:2Q25epreviewWeforecast2Q25e revenue to grow 14% y-o-y or 6% q-o-q to RMB14.6bn, largely in line withconsensus.We expect marketing spendingto surge 22% y-o-yor 15% q-o-q to23.2% ofrevenue,which is also largely in line with consensus.We see total opexto increase 16%y-o-yor 6% q-o-q, which bringsadj. OP marginholding up at29.4%albeit3.7ppts lower y-o-y,compared toconsensusforecast for 30.5% adj. OP margin.Exhibit2. Trip.com:2Q25eresultspreviewRMBm2Q25eReported financialsRevenues14,595Gross profits11,777Product development3,269Marketing3,393G&AStock ba