Petronet液化天然气有限公司（PLNG）：2025财年第四季度回顾运营表现疲软；指引低迷

2025A2026E55,241.058,393.039,264.040,414.026.2026.904.71%5.05% 2027E65,889.043,085.028.70 Bhaskar Chakraborty * | Equity Analyst91 22 4224 6113 | bchakraborty@jefferies.comSource: Industry sources, JefferiesExhibit 2 - Spot LNG expensive relative toliquid fuels.8101214161820Source: Bloomberg, Jefferies The Long View: Petronet LNG Ltd.Investment Thesis / Where We DifferPLNG's long-term volume contracts, excellent pipeline connectivity, andcheapest tariff should ensure healthy capacity utilization at DahejBut we model flattish earnings growth over FY25-27E in absence of newcontracts at Dahej and scale up of GAIL's Dabhol terminalUnrelated diversification into petrochemicals faces execution risks andconstrains balance sheetBase Case,INR240, -25%Dahej volumes at 19.8mmt in FY26E ost thecommissioning of expanded capacityKochi's volumes rise from 1.1mmt to 1.5mmtover FY24-27E on pipeline connectivityKochi regas margin at Rs 70/mmbtu in FY20, 5%annual increments thereafterDahej regas margins rising 5% every JanWe base our PT of Rs 240 on a DCFE at ~12%COESustainability MattersTop Material Issue(s): 1)While its LNG regasification business doesn’t face risk of price control andaids govt’s target of increasing natural gas in India’s energy mix from 6% currently to 15% by 2030,there are concerns on its planned foray into polypropylene productionCompany Target(s): 1)Increase LNG demand in India by rolling out a network of 1,000 LNG retailoutlets over next 5 years2)Invest Rs40bn in compressed biogas plants over next 5 years.Qs to Mgmt: 1)What competitive edge do you have in Polypropylene production?2)Where will yousource propane from?3)What capex do you envisage and over what period?ESG Sector Integration | India Gas UtilitiesPlease see important disclosure information on pages 10 - 14 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Upside Scenario,INR340, +6%Domesticgas production disappoints withincreasing demand for imported LNG and higherutilizationPeak utilization at Kochi by FY27E as industrialdemand also commences, in addition to anchorloadDiscount rate compresses on strong long-termvisibilityPT of Rs 340 based on a DCFE Downside Scenario,INR195, -39%LNG prices harden, impacting volumesKochi ramp-up weaker than expectedFreeze in the regasification tariffs at Dahej andKochiNoescalation clause on expanded DahejcapacityDownside PT of Rs 195 based on a DCFECatalystsDahej capacity utilization goes to ~ 110%Faster-than-expected volume ramp-up in KochiKochi Bangalore pipeline is commissioned byFY26E,leading to further upside to Kochivolumes 2 Exhibit 3 - PLNG Quarterly Summary.Operating MetricsDahej volumesKochi volumesTotal volumesIncome StatementNet RevenuesRaw Material CostsGross ProfitEmployee CostsOther ExpensesEBITDAEBITDA marginDepreciation & AmortizationEBITOther IncomeFinance CostsPBTTaxesCurrent TaxDeferred TaxPATEPSSource: Jefferies estimates, company dataPlease see important disclosure information on pages 10 - 14 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Exhibit 4 - Dahej quarterly volume trend.0501001502002503001QFY202QFY203QFY204QFY201QFY212QFY21Long termDahej volumes (tbtu)Source: Jefferies, company dataExhibit 6 - Kochi quarterly volume trend.0246810121416181QFY202QFY203QFY204QFY201QFY212QFY21Long termKochi volumes (tbtu)Source: Jefferies, company dataExhibit 8 - PLNG market share trend.50%55%60%65%70%75%80%1QFY202QFY203QFY204QFY201QFY212QFY21PLNG market share(%)Source: Jefferies, company dataPlease see important disclosure information on pages 10 - 14 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Exhibit 10 - Annual Vol Trend.10111213141516171819FY 18FY 19FY 20LNG Vol, mmtSource: Company, JefferiesExhibit 12 - Key CF items trends.0102030405060FY 17FY 18FY 19Rs bnOperating Cash FlowSource: Company reports, JefferiesExhibit 14 - Trend in ROCE.18.6%17.2%18.2%0%5%10%15%20%25%FY 18FY 19FY 20ROCE (%)Source: Jefferies, company dataPlease see important disclosure information on pages 10 - 14 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Source: Company reports, JefferiesExhibit 15 - PLNG 1-yr fwd consensus PE.8910111213141516Jan-20May-20Aug-20Dec-20Apr-211-yr fwd PESource: Bloomberg, Jefferies Exhibit 16 - PLNG Summary Income Statement.Operating MetricsVolumesDahejLong TermRegas servicesOthersUtilizationKochiLong TermRegas servicesOthersUtilizationRegas TariffDahejLong TermRegas servicesOthersKochiLong TermRegas servicesOthersSummary Income StatementNet RevenuesRaw Material CostsGross MarginStaff CostsOther ExpensesEBITDADepreciation and AmortizationEBITOther IncomeFinance CostsOther itemsPBTTaxesPATEarnings Per Share (EPS)Standalone Return RatiosROEROCESource: Jefferies estimates, company dataPlease see important disclosure information on pages 10 - 14