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Aug-24Sep-24Oct-24Nov-24Dec-24over the past 12 months 110102Jan-25Feb-25Mar-25Apr-25May-25 Shrikant Kale * | Quantitative Strategist852 3743 8058 | shrikant.kale@jefferies.comDesh Peramunetilleke * | Head of QuantitativeStrategy852 3743 8056 | desh.peramunetilleke@jefferies.comJefferies Quantitative Strategy * | JefferiesEquity Research| quantstrategy@jefferies.comJefferies Japan Equity Strategy ^ | EquityResearch Team| jefferies_japan_equity_strategy@jefferies.comRecent Japan Quant Strategy reports:•Japan: Buyout Opportunities (II)•The New World (dis)Order•Are Wage Hikes Hurting Margins?•Buyback Bonanza Deconstructed•Japan - Trump Tariff Implications•Japan: What's In Style for 2025?•Cross-Holdings: Price Impact•The Rise of M&A/De-fragmentation•The Yen Puzzle: Carry-Trade•Potential Buyout Opportunities Table of contentsTopic4Q’FY3/25–Lackluster earnings seasonsBeats: Current versus the historical trendEarnings Growth: YoY and QoQ trendQuarterly earnings/op/sales surpriseGuidance vs consensusForex guidancePrice impact of beats and missesBuybacks bonanza continuesFocus on dividendsElevated inventory levels warrant cautionScreen: Focus on dividend improvementPlease see important disclosure information on pages 23 - 27 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Page345691011141618212 4Q’FY3/25–Lackluster earnings seasonExhibit1:Japan results summary for4Q’FY3/25-Beats and misses(For companies with market cap >=US$1bn)Note: Surprise is calculated based on Factset est. We use a 0.1% threshold to determine whetherit’s abeatormiss. Source: Jefferies, FactsetExhibit2:Japan baskets by geographic revenue exposure-4Q’FY3/25beatsSource: Jefferies, FactSetMarketsby Mcap(US$bn)Japan5,395Geographic exposureDomestic1,488USA1,975Europe677China646Custom sectorsBond-proxies316Cyclical old-economy2,611Defensive growth1,190Tech ex-internet816Structural growth435Japan sectorsUtilities64Stpl retail97Cons dur276Disc'y retail211Property127Telecom312Cap gds965Cons svcs73Semis195Pharma260Software221Comm svcs148Tech HW303Transport180Media224Autos480Materials259HPC56Energy46191Healthcare126Insurance72Banks412Fin svcs97Total reported565430354045505560Domestic% of companies deliveringearnings/OP/sales beatOperating income beatPlease see important disclosure information on pages 23 - 27 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. by countby Mcapby count% Beat% In-line47999.798.850.7% Beat% In-line210100.099.551.910699.696.450.048100.0100.047.97090.193.351.4% Beat% In-line9100.0100.022.2228100.0100.053.113995.496.551.15995.690.847.539100.090.743.6% Beat% In-line1387.5100.061.510100.090.960.019100.095.057.918100.078.350.015100.0100.073.3598.583.320.082100.0100.051.21397.192.961.51384.181.346.21581.393.866.717100.081.047.117100.0100.041.23086.196.850.028100.0100.064.320100.095.255.02796.4100.044.44787.794.053.2977.390.066.7785.8100.042.9FBT2597.389.324.01685.788.925.0442.066.775.014100.087.550.015100.0100.040.0Results summary for 4Q'FY3/25 quarter - Broader Japan (Market cap > US$1bn)% reportedEarnings555058585250USAEuropeGeographic exposure of salesSales beat Domestic companies fared thebest, while China and Europeexposure hurt3 Beats: Current versus the historical trendLackluster earnings beats versus the historyExhibit3:Topix–Trend ofearningsbeatsSource: Jefferies, FactSetExhibit4:Topix–Trend ofsalesbeatsSource: Jefferies, FactSetExhibit5:Topix–Trend ofoperating incomebeatsSource: Jefferies, FactSet7057705858445630354045505560657075803Q'FY3/154Q'FY3/151Q'FY3/162Q'FY3/163Q'FY3/164Q'FY3/161Q'FY3/17(% of earnings beats)545456494037393225303540455055606570753Q'FY3/154Q'FY3/151Q'FY3/162Q'FY3/163Q'FY3/164Q'FY3/161Q'FY3/172Q'FY3/17(% of sales beats)56394969304050607080902Q'FY3/203Q'FY3/204Q'FY3/201Q'FY3/21(% of operating inc beats)Please see important disclosure information on pages 23 - 27 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. 607060726361486350512Q'FY3/173Q'FY3/174Q'FY3/171Q'FY3/182Q'FY3/183Q'FY3/184Q'FY3/181Q'FY3/192Q'FY3/193Q'FY3/19485863666551534252453Q'FY3/174Q'FY3/171Q'FY3/182Q'FY3/183Q'FY3/184Q'FY3/181Q'FY3/192Q'FY3/193Q'FY3/194Q'FY3/197382617453612Q'FY3/213Q'FY3/214Q'FY3/211Q'FY3/222Q'FY3/223Q'FY3/22 4Q'FY3/2551% companies delivered earningsbeatsversushistorical average of58%54%Topline beatsOP beats declined to54% versushistorical average of 57%4 EarningsGrowth: YoY and QoQ trend4Q’FY3/25earningsdeclinedto ¥11.2tn,-11%YoYand-36%QoQExhibit6:Topix–Aggregate quarterly earnings since FY3/18Note: ExcludingSoftBank Group.Source: Jefferies, FactSetExhibit7:Topix–YoYearnings growth trendNote: ExcludingSoftBank Group.Source: Jefferies, FactSetExhibit8:Topix–QoQearnings growth trendNote: ExcludingSoftBank Group.Source: Jefferies, FactSet10.310.112.88.011.510.2024681012141618201Q'FY3/18A2Q'FY3/18A3Q'FY3/18A4Q'FY3/18A1Q'FY3/19A2Q'FY3/19AAggreg