冠军之家（SKY）：2025财年第四季度回顾：近期背景对毛利率的影响

F4Q25 Recap: Near-Term Backdrop Weighing onGross Margins Withconsumer confidence falling,SKY is seeing spottier demand,mixheadwinds as consumers trade down, and pockets of pricing pressure. Giventhe current environment, mgmt lowered its outlook on GM by ~100 bps. The LTsecular growth story remains intact, but with the stock trading at 11.6x FY26EV/EBITDA, shares look fairly valued. Expecting LSD% sales growth in F1Q.F4Q topline was impacted by unfavorable weather, notablyin TX & other Southern mkts, but overall captive retailremained healthy. Community channel alsoimproved at a steady pace, with key customers returning. Backlogs also improved by ~9% QOQ,reflecting normalized lead times (8 weeks). Given macro uncertainties weighing on consumerconfidence, SKY guided to LSD% YOY topline growth in F1Q, falling short of consensus (+6%YOY). Mgmt noted softer spring season, community trends remaining mixed, & pipeline for builder/developer channel remains favorable, but pacing of projects could be elongated. SKY noted instore retail traffic has been mixed, but seeing more active buyers. Encouragingly, mgmt highlightedCongress is considering lifting chassis requirements, which could help gain more zoning support,reduce transportation costs, and unlock multiple-story product designs. Mix headwinds & pockets of pricing pressure.U.S. ASP increased by ~5% YOY in F4Q, and was flatsequentially. Mgmt saw pricing competition picking up in the West, FL, and the Northeast, drivenby affordability concerns & weaker consumer confidence. In addition, SKY saw a shift in consumertrends towards lower-mix options with fewer features, as buyers trade down to make monthlypayments more affordable. Mgmt expects this trend to persist in the near-term, but Iseman Homesacquisition should be accretive to ASP in FY26 from the increased captive retail exposure. Thetransaction is relatively small, contributing <$40 mil of sales, as Iseman was already a key customer,but SKY could drive accretive growth. Chattel rates remains stable, trending 150 -200 bps higherthan 30-year FRM for qualified buyers. Cutting near-term GM target.F4Q GM came in lower than expected, impacted by higher materialcosts, unfavorable operating leverage (utilization at 60% vs 63% in F3Q), and increased investmentson marketing & tech. Given weaker consumer confidence weighing on demand & mix, and materialcosts remain elevated, mgmt now expects gross margins in the near-term to be in the 25-26%range, down from the 26-27% range it guided previously. That said, in the LT mgmt still believesstructural GM should be in the 26-27% range based on the improvements it's made on the platform.Although mgmt noted tariff pressure remain manageable, we are modeling GM on the lower end ofthe near-term range. SKY idled one facility in FL & consolidated two facilities in Canada to improveefficiencies. While SG&A stepped up from investments & the captive retail exposure from RegionalHomes, containing SG&A will be a focus in FY26. Philip Ng, CFA * | Equity Analyst(212) 336-7369 | png@jefferies.comFiona Shang * | Equity Associate(212) 336-7447 | fshang@jefferies.comMaggie Grady Miller, CPA * | Equity Associate(212) 284-3472 | mgrady1@jefferies.com The Long View: Champion Homes Risk/Reward - 12 Month View Investment Thesis / Where We Differ •Macro uncertainties including tariffs are weighing on low-end consumers'affordability, pressuring its near-term price/mix.•Volumes should remain at a flat to modest growth level in FY26, due touncertainty on consumer confidence, partially offset by Iseman Homesacquisition. FY27 should return to LSD% growth.•Gross margin is facing headwinds from higher material costs, lowercapacity utilization rates and increased strategic spending, remaining at25-26% in FY26. In the long term, margins are poised to improve toward the26-27% level.•SKY should be able to weather any slowdown in demand with a net cashposition on its balance sheet. Downside Scenario,$64, -2% Upside Scenario,$77, +17% Base Case,$70, +7% •Sales increase by MSD% YOY in FY26, inclusiveof M&A, and MSD% in FY27.•FY26 sales of ~$2.6 bil.•FY26E EBITDA margin: ~11%.•FY26E EBITDA: $285 mil; Target Multiple: 13.0xEV/EBITDA; Price Target $77. •Sales increase by LSD% YOY in FY26, inclusiveof M&A and ~MSD% in FY27.•FY26 sales of ~$2.5 bil.•FY26E EBITDA margin: 10.5%.•FY26E EBITDA: $264mil; Target Multiple: 12.6xEV/EBITDA; Price Target $70. •Sales remain flattish YOY in FY26, mainly drivenby M&A.•FY26 sales of ~$2.5 bil.•FY26E EBITDA margin: 10.4%.•FY26E EBITDA: $260 mil; Target Multiple: 11.5xEV/EBITDA; Price Target $64. Sustainability Matters Catalysts Top Material Issue(s): 1) Product Design & Lifecycle Mgmt:SKY provides affordable, high-quality, andenergy-efficient homes. Manufactured and modular homes cost up to 50% less per square foot thanconventional site-built homes, expanding the opportunity for individuals to own a home despite an ever-growing housing affordability gap.2) Waste & Ha