印度石油天然气公司（ONGC）：2025财年第四季度回顾小幅未达标；估值贴现疲弱原油价格

2025A2026E6,632.66,887.07,371.10.6x0.6x988.61,085.21,205.74.0x3.7x 2027E0.5x3.3x Bhaskar Chakraborty * | Equity Analyst91 22 4224 6113 | bchakraborty@jefferies.com The Long View: ONGCInvestment Thesis / Where We DifferRising production levels with start-up of KG 98/2.Crude and gas pricing reforms to keep profitability levels higher than LTaverage.Tight oil markets keeping oil prices at an elevated level.PE discount to Nifty wider than LT average despite improved fundamentals.Base Case,INR360, +45%Brent at US$70-75/bbl over FY26/27E.Domesticgas prices sustaining at US$6.5/mmbtu with increments from FY26E onward.2%/9% CAGR in domestic crude/gas productionover FY25-27E.We value ONGC with consol business at 9.8x 1-yr fwd PE, at LT discount to Nifty, leading to Rs360 PT.Sustainability MattersTop Material Issue(s): 1)Majority of operations in regions with fragile ecosystems.2)Operationshistorically have high rates of industrial fatalities.3)High environmental impacts from air, water, andwaste emissions compared to peers.Company Target(s): 1)Net Zero target of 2038.2)Set a target of Rs 1tn capex in renewable generationcapacity by 2030.Qs to Mgmt: 1)How are you planning to lower emissions from current operations?2)What are somekey renewable projects you are focussing on in the medium term, and what is your expected IRR onsuch business?Please see important disclosure information on pages 10 - 15 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Upside Scenario,INR415, +67%Brent at ~US$80-85/bbl over FY26/27E.Domesticgas prices sustaining at US$6.5/mmbtu with annual increments.3%/10%CAGRinproduction over FY25-27E.PT of Rs 415 with consol business valued at 10x1-yr fwd PE. Downside Scenario,INR210, -16%Brent at ~US$60/bbl over FY26/27E.Lower-than-expected production from KG98/2.PT of Rs 210 with consol business valued at 7x1-yr fwd PE.CatalystsFaster-than-expectedgrowth in oil and gasproduction in KG basin.Change in framework of gas pricing for difficultgas fields. domestic 2 crude/gas Exhibit 3 - ONGC Standalone Quarterly Summary.Operating MetricsCrude ProductionGas ProductionVAPTotal Domestic ProductionOVL ProductionTotal ProductionStandalone Income StatementNet RevenuesGross ProfitEmployee CostsStatutory leviesOther ExpensesEBITDAExplorationD&AEBITOther IncomeFinance CostsExceptional ItemsPBTTaxesCurrent TaxDeferred TaxPrior Period AdjustmentPATSource: Company reports, JefferiesExhibit 4 - ONGC Consol Quarterly Summary.Consol Income StatementNet RevenuesGross ProfitEBITDAExplorationD&AEBITOther IncomeFinance CostsShare of AssociatesExceptional ItemsPBTTaxesPATMinority interestPAT net of minority interestEPSSource: Company reports, JefferiesPlease see important disclosure information on pages 10 - 15 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Exhibit 5 - ONGC Standalone crude production trends.4.04.24.44.64.85.05.25.45.65.81QFY212QFY213QFY214QFY211QFY22Crude Production (MMT)Source: Company reports, JefferiesExhibit 7 - ONGC Standalone crude sales trends.4.24.44.64.85.05.25.41QFY212QFY213QFY214QFY211QFY22Crude Sales (MMT)Source: Company reports, JefferiesExhibit 9 - ONGC Standalone sales by product.01002003004005001QFY212QFY213QFY214QFY211QFY22Sales (Rs bn)Source: Company reports, JefferiesExhibit 11 - ONGC Standalone net realizations trends.0153045601QFY212QFY213QFY214QFY211QFY22Net realizations ex levies (US$/boe)Source: Company reports, JefferiesPlease see important disclosure information on pages 10 - 15 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Exhibit 13 - KG basin crude production ramp-up.051015202530354045504QFY241QFY25KG basin crude production (kbpd)Source: Company reports, JefferiesExhibit 15 - ONGC standalone key CF item trends.0100200300400500600700800900FY18FY19FY20Operating Cash FlowStandalone (Rs bn)Source: Company reports, JefferiesExhibit 17 - Standalone net debt/(net cash) trend.246211134(300)(200)(100)0100200300FY18FY19FY20Standalone net cash (Rs bn)Source: Company reports, JefferiesExhibit 19 - Consol ROE trend.12%15%5%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%20%FY18FY19FY20Consol ROE (%)Source: Company reports, JefferiesPlease see important disclosure information on pages 10 - 15 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Source: Company reports, JefferiesExhibit 18 - Consol Net Debt trend.91291689502004006008001,0001,2001,400FY18FY19FY20Source: Company reports, JefferiesExhibit 20 - ONGC Discount to Nifty.-90-80-70-60-50-40-30-20-100Jan-10Jan-11Jan-12Jan-13Jan-14ONGC PE premium/(Discount) over Nifty PE(%)(%)Average =-52%Source: Bloomberg, Jefferies Exhibit 21 - ONGC Consol 1-yr fwd PE band chart.0246810121416Source: Bloomberg, JefferiesPlease see important disclosure information on pages 10 - 15 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies c