印度必需消费品：2025财年第四季度回顾

Vivek Maheshwari * | Equity Analyst91 22 4224 6135 | vmaheshwari@jefferies.comKunal Shah * | Equity Analyst+91 (22) 4224 6111 | kshah5@jefferies.comRushabh Bhachawat * | Equity Associate+91 22 4224 6114 | rbhachawat@jefferies.comRajesh Kumar, CFA * | Equity Associate+91 22 4224 6314 | rkumar18@jefferies.com4QFY25 result notesGCPL: Analyst Meet Update — EarningsGrowth to ImproveMarico: A Reasonable OutcomeVBL: Strong India volumes but...HUL: Growth Takes Center StageITC: A broadly in-line outcomeNestle: A Slight Miss in 4QFY25CLGT: Lackluster end to the yearHonasa: The Tide Seems to Be TurningHow different categories fared?.StrongModerateEdible OilTea/ CoffeeDishwashDetergents/ FabriccareCigarettesSkin CareHair Care - OthersBiscuits/Bread/RuskBranded StaplesNoodle, Oats.Ketchup, Snacks,ChocolatesAir CareJuices/ WaterCSDHair OilHouseholdInsecticidesDeo/ MaleGroomingIce CreamColor cosmeticsSoapsCategory performance WeakOral CareAyurvedic HealthSupplementsHFD 4QFY25 review: Broadly in-line performance; GM impacted due to input cost inflationExhibit 1 - 4QFY25 earnings performance4Q saw a slight uptick in performance across companies in terms of topline growth. 6 out of 12 companies reported broadly in-line 4Q, while only 4 companiesreported better than expected..Company1QFY232QFY23HULBeatIn-lineITCBeatBeatNestleMissBeatBritanniaMissBeatGCPLMissMissTata Cons.MissMissDaburIn-lineIn-lineMaricoIn-lineIn-lineColgateMissIn-lineVBLBeatBeatEmamiMissMissHonasaSource: Company data, JefferiesExhibit 2 - Ebitda beat/ miss vs. Jefferies estimates.(2)HULNestleBritanniaGCPLTata ConsDaburMaricoColgateVBLEmamiHonasa(% beat/ miss)Source: Company data, JefferiesExhibit 3 - Trend in volume growthFMCG demand trends for 4Q remain broadly similar to 3Q, with no meaningful incremental urban pick-up. Rural continues to see gradual recovery. Coveragevolume growth is similar to 3Q, at 2% YoY..Volume growth (%)HULITC - CigarettesGCPL - DomesticDabur - DomesticVBL - IndiaBritanniaColgateNestleMarico - DomesticEmami - DomesticTCPL - India*Sector avg (excl. ITC/ VBL)Source: Company data, Jefferies, *Organic UVG for India branded business stood at 6% for TCPLPlease see important disclosure information on pages 12 - 17 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. 3QFY234QFY231QFY242QFY243QFY244QFY241QFY252QFY253QFY254QFY25DriverIn-lineMissMissIn-lineMissIn-lineBeatIn-lineMissIn-lineIn-line revenues/EBITDA, beat on volumesBeatBeatBeatMissMissMissMissIn-lineMissIn-lineIn-line revenues, slight beat on marginsBeatBeatIn-lineIn-lineMissIn-lineMissMissIn-lineMissMiss on revenue/EBITA, sligh beat on marginsBeatBeatMissBeatIn-lineIn-lineMissMissBeatIn-lineIn-line margins, slight beat on revenueBeatBeatIn-lineIn-lineBeatBeatMissBeatIn-lineIn-lineMiss on revenue, but slight beat on marginsIn-lineBeatIn-lineBeatBeatIn-lineBeatMissMissIn-lineIn-line revenue, slight beat on EBITDAIn-lineMissBeatBeatIn-lineBeatIn-lineMissIn-lineMissMiss on revenue and marginsIn-lineBeatIn-lineIn-lineIn-lineIn-lineIn-lineIn-lineIn-lineBeatBeat on revenue/volumes and EBITDAMissBeatBeatMissBeatIn-lineBeatMissIn-lineIn-lineMiss on revenue, but in-line EBITDABeatBeatBeatBeatBeatBeatBeatBeatBeatBeatBeat on volumes and marginsMissBeatBeatBeatIn-lineIn-lineIn-lineIn-lineIn-lineBeatBeat on volumes and EBITDABeatBeatIn-lineBeatMissBeatBeatBeat on all fronts-246% beat/ miss vs. Jeff.EstimatesExcept Nestle and Britannia, all other namesreported better than expected EBITDA3QFY224QFY221QFY232QFY233QFY234QFY231QFY242QFY243QFY244QFY241QFY252QFY252-6454322241192521151284(2)23-(3)(6)(5)31310457102351(3)-3344527171072220281161842354(2)431-06683(3)(3)(2)(2)15(1)12757884844451-1(6)34533234---(5)(7)(8)(1)2(1)6951(1)(1)(1)54432531223442345 3QFY254QFY253-23657-4(9)1(6)641686485-(2)32567245(2)44222 2 Exhibit 4 - Trend in coverage revenue growth (excl. ITC,VBL, edible oil players).654(6)(1)(8)(6)(4)(2)-2468101214161820221QFY202QFY203QFY204QFY20654(6)(8)(6)(4)(2)-2468101214161820221QFY202QFY203QFY204QFY20Source: Company data, Jefferies estimatesExhibit 5 - Trend in coverage gross margin (excl. ITC, VBL and edible oil players).35373941434547495153551QFY202QFY203QFY204QFY201QFY21(%)Source: Company data, Jefferies estimatesExhibit 6 - Ad-spends (% of revenue).0246810121QFY202QFY203QFY204QFY20(%)0246810121QFY202QFY203QFY204QFY20(%)Source: Company data, Jefferies estimates; excludes ITC, VBL, Nestle and BritanniaPlease see important disclosure information on pages 12 - 17 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Coveragerevenuegrowthpickedupsequentiallyto 6%YoY,given higherrealisations for several companiesGross margin contracted YoY/QoQ; Risinginput cost inflation pinches marginsAd spends dipped YoY, as most companiesstartedcutting ad spends to safeguardmargins3 Exhibit 7 - Coverage Ebitda margin (excl. ITC, VBL and edible oil players).1012141618202224261QFY202QFY203QF