现代汽车印度公司（HYUNDAI IN）：买入 - 2025财年第四季度 - 出口和新车型发布将推动增长

Issuer of report:HSBC Securities and CapitalMarkets (India) Private LimitedView HSBC Global Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.comHSBC Global Research Podcasts| Listen to our insightsMAINTAIN BUYTARGET PRICE(INR)2150.00SHARE PRICE(INR)1855.60(as of16 May 2025)MARKET DATAMarket cap(INRm)1,507,751Market cap(USDm)17,6353m ADTV (USDm)FINANCIALS AND RATIOS(INR)Year to03/2025aHSBC EPS69.41HSBC EPS (prev)72.87Change (%)-4.7Consensus EPS66.79PE (x)26.7Dividend yield (%)1.1EV/EBITDA (x)15.7ROE (%)41.852-WEEK PRICE(INR)Source:LSEGIBES, HSBC estimatesYogesh Aggarwal*Head of Research, IndiaHSBC Securities and Capital Markets (India) Private Limitedyogeshaggarwal@hsbc.co.in+91 22 2268 1246Vipul Agrawal*, CFAAnalyst, AutomotiveHSBC Securities and Capital Markets (India) Private Limitedvipul.agrawal@hsbc.co.in+91 97690 51842Vishal Goel*, CFAAnalyst, India Automotive ResearchHSBC Securities and Capital Markets (India) Private Limitedvishalgoel@hsbc.co.in+91 0 80 6737 2115* Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulationsEquitiesAutomobilesIndia05/2411/24Target price: 2150.00High: 1916.55 Low: 1580.15 Current: 1855.60 ◆◆◆ PREVIOUS TARGET(INR)2000.00UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE+15.9%Free floatBBG28RIC03/2026e75.9266.0673.68 Find out more18%HYUNDAI INHYUN.BO03/2027e03/2028e87.8599.8776.4714.914.985.81100.3024.421.118.61.11.114.412.510.933.230.227.41500.001900.002300.0005/25 2Financial statementsYear to03/2025a03/2026e03/2027e03/2028eProfit & loss summary(INRm)Revenue691,929756,751837,472920,259EBITDA89,53897,671111,025124,889Depreciation & amortisation-21,053-22,400-24,000-24,800Operating profit/EBIT68,48575,27187,025100,089Net interest-1,272-1,600-1,600-1,600PBT75,91482,47195,425108,489HSBC PBT75,91482,47195,425108,489Taxation-19,511-20,783-24,047-27,339Net profit56,40261,68871,37881,150HSBC net profit56,40261,68871,37881,150Cash flow summary(INRm)Cash flow from operations43,44978,10788,30898,903Capex-53,068-70,000-60,000-60,000Cash flow from investment-4,138-61,200-50,000-50,000Dividends-17,063-16,251-16,251-16,251Change in net debt4,621944-20,457-31,053FCF equity-9,6198,10728,30838,903Balance sheet summary(INRm)Intangible fixed assets1,9511,9511,9511,951Tangible fixed assets116,284163,884199,884235,084Current assets160,323164,830191,881229,688Cash & others85,79284,848105,305136,357Total assets300,974353,080416,132489,139Operating liabilities121,354128,023135,948144,055Gross debt7,9187,9187,9187,918Net debt-77,873-76,929-97,386-128,439Shareholders' funds162,965208,402263,529328,429Invested capital71,412117,794152,464186,311Ratio, growth and per share analysisYear to03/2025a03/2026e03/2027e03/2028eY-o-y % changeRevenue-0.99.410.79.9EBITDA-2.09.113.712.5Operating profit-1.19.915.615.0PBT-7.98.615.713.7HSBC EPS-6.99.415.713.7Ratios (%)Revenue/IC (x)16.48.06.25.4ROIC120.559.548.244.2ROE41.833.230.227.4ROA20.319.218.918.2EBITDA margin12.912.913.313.6Operating profit margin9.99.910.410.9EBITDA/net interest (x)70.461.069.478.1Net debt/equity-47.8-36.9-37.0-39.1Net debt/EBITDA (x)-0.9-0.8-0.9-1.0CF from operations/net debtPer share data(INR)EPS Rep (diluted)69.4175.9287.8599.87HSBCEPS (diluted)69.4175.9287.8599.87DPS21.0020.0020.0020.00Book value200.56256.48324.33404.20Financials & valuation:Hyundai Motor India Hyundai reported strong EBITDA margin of 14.1% in 4Q, above consensus estimate of 12.1%. The margin beat was drivenbyprice hike, highergovernment incentives, costreduction initiatives and better product mix.INRm1Q242Q243Q244Q241Q252Q253Q254Q25Wholesales volumes (WS)183,403209,777190,979193,713192,055191,939186,408191,650y-o-y4.7%-8.5%-2.4%-1.1%Retail sales138,440146,338149,290150,635139,128131,384161,468148,422y-o-y8.5%6.9%3.0%8.6%0.5%-10.2%8.2%-1.5%Realisation per car (INR)895,639877,727864,599894,008891,997883,656875,665914,545y-o-y-0.4%0.7%1.3%2.3%q-o-q-2.0%-1.5%3.4%-0.2%-0.9%-0.9%4.4%Revenues166,235186,597168,747176,711173,442172,604166,480179,403y-o-y4.3%-7.5%-1.3%1.5%COGS as a % of sales75.7%74.8%73.2%71.5%71.9%72.5%73.1%71.2%Staff costs as a %of sales2.9%2.6%3.0%2.8%3.2%3.2%3.6%3.4%Other expenses as a % of sales9.4%9.5%10.9%11.5%11.5%11.5%12.0%11.3%EBITDA (INRm)19,97324,40021,73525,21823,40322,05318,75525,327y-o-y17.2%-9.6%-13.7%0.4%EBITDA margin12.0%13.1%12.9%14.3%13.5%12.8%11.3%14.1%EBIT margin8.6%10.1%9.7%11.1%10.4%9.8%8.1%11.2%PAT (INRm)13,29216,28514,25216,77214,89713,75511,60716,144y-o-y12.1%-15.5%-18.6%-3.7%EPS (INR)16.320.017.520.618.316.914.319.9y-o-y12.1%-15.5%-18.6%-3.7%EBITDA per car (INR)108,900116,316113,807130,184121,853114,896100,614132,152y-o-y11.9%-1.2%-11.6%1.5%Source:Company dataExhibit2:Segment-wise performance and product mix trendsExports and new model launches are key growth drivers for near to medium term. Management is targeting to increase theexport share in total volume to 30% by FY30,from 22% in FY25,driven be new capacity addition.HMIL will launch 26 models byFY30 includingsixEV models,andeight of these models will be la