LY公司（4689 JP）：更新盈利预测-维持持有

FY3/26EFY3/27E2,077.42,261.5-2,077.12,227.0-24.44512.5 FY3/28E2,459.72,404.027.9331.71556.7600.1 Hiroko Sato * | Equity Analyst813 5251 6185 | hsato@jefferies.comKen Oiwa, CFA * | Equity Analyst+813 5251 6126 | koiwa@jefferies.comUsing EPS from FY12/25, FY9/25,FY5/26,FY3/26, FY6/25.0x5x10x15x20x25x30x35x40x45xGMOLYCSource: Jefferies, FactSet (5/20/2025 closing price) The Long View: LY CorporationInvestment Thesis / Where We Differ•PayPay IPO process will start soon.•Profit improvements vs KPI growth.•Media business needs to come back, especially Yahoo Ads. Search Adcomeback is important.•Commerce Business: Cost cuts vs e-commerce GMV growth. Not justcost cuts but LY Premium will need to bring back the major KPIs fromthis segment—but still waiting for the impact.•ID consolidation gradually growing, reaching 27mn, but needs to pick uppace.•We need more disclosure on mid-term strategy. Overall direction andstrategy is unclear at present.•Focus is on AI consolidation•Strong capital allocation target and updates on the management bonusattached to the stock option/share price movement is positive.Base Case,¥562, +9%•We estimate total revenue of ¥2.08tn (+8.3%YoY),OP of¥307.1bn(-2.5%YoY),andadjusted EBITDA of ¥512.5bn (+8.9% YoY) forFY3/26.•For Media segment, we estimate sales growthof +3.7% YoY due to the sluggish search adsand Display Ads growth, not much of recoveryin FY3/26.•For Shopping, we estimate +7.3% YoY GMVgrowth in FY3/26. For Ecommerce GMV, weestimate +7.8% yoy.•Price target ¥562. This equates to EV/EBITDA12.6x and P/E of 23x on FY3/26E EPS of¥24.5.Sustainability MattersTop Material Issues: 1) Data Security 2) Customer Privacy; 3) Employee Engagement, Diversity, &Inclusion; 4) System Risk Management; and 5) Energy Management.Company Targets: 1) Environment Change:GHG Emission: Target carbon zero (Scope 1 and Scope2); Waste Materials Management—mainly include recycling of paper and also h/w waste such asPCs and Servers by 2030.2) Governance:Business Ethics; Trusted value chain—Data Security andCustomer Privacy; Systematic Risk Management and Critical Incident Risk Management. LYC is usedas a social portal in times of emergency.3) Social:Employee Engagement, Diversity, and Inclusion;Access and AffordabilityQs to Mgmt: 1)How large a budget are you allocating to address renewable energy?2)What are youdoing for ongoing internal training, both technically and governance-wise?3)What efforts are beingtaken in security?Please see important disclosure information on pages 10 - 15 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Upside Scenario,¥800, +54%•Shopping GMV grows above 15% YoY•Reuse GMV grows at 10% YoY•Strategic segment sales show growth: Bothcredit card and PayPay Bank grow more than20% YoY.•LINE Ads grows 17% YoY and Yahoo Adsgrows 18.6% YoY.•Price target¥800,FY3/26 EV/EBITDA of17.0x. Downside Scenario,¥350, -32%•Media business continues to slow down.•Shopping GMV is down -10% YoY•Adjusted merged EBITDA slows down inFY3/26.Profit slowdown due to morespending including investments.•Yahoo spends additional marketing budget,causing flat OP YoY.•Aggressive promotional cost spending togoafter KPI growth rather than profitimprovements.•Price target ¥350, 10.3x FY3/26 EV/EBITDAand P/E 16.7x using EPS ¥21 for FY3/26.Catalysts•LINE Revamp becomes a big hit.•Moreintegrationwithecosystem execution.•Both LINE Ads and Yahoo Ads includingShopping Ads require more growth.•Visible impacts from both ID consolidationand LineYahoo Premium (LYP) are needed.•Waiting for the next mid-term plan.•PayPay IPO.•AI integration advances,showing positiveimpact on earnings growth.•Capital allocation progress. PayPay,tighter2 •For AI investments, the company has a ¥10bn budget.•For LYP Premium ID link, LYC is 60% completed. The company is starting to seeimprovements in the target accuracy in the Display Ads, but is offset by the slowdown inthe overall Display Ad business.Please see important disclosure information on pages 10 - 15 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Table 1 - Quarterly Sales and OP Estimates.(IFRS) Consolidated P/L(¥mn)RevenueMedia BusinessCommerce BusinessStrategicOthersGPSG&AOperating IncomeMedia BusinessCommerce BusinessCommerce Business OPMStrategicOthersAdjustmentsAdjusted EBITDA%Adjusted EBITDA MarginMedia BusinessMedia Business EBITDA marginCommerce BusinessCommerce Business EBITDA marginStrategicStrategics EBITDA marginOthersAdjustmentsSource: Jefferies Estimates, Company, FactSetPlease see important disclosure information on pages 10 - 15 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Table 2 - LYC - P/L Estimates.(IFRS) Consolidated P/L(¥mn)RevenueMedia BusinessCommerce BusinessStrategicOthersGPSG&AOperating IncomeMedia BusinessMedia Business OPMCommerce BusinessCommerce Business OPMStrategicOthersAdjustme