保圣那控股（2181 JP）：第四季度后的模型更新与下半年增长预测

FY3/26EFY3/27E1,537.01,605.71,538.51,622.318.2020.940.3x0.3x FY3/28E1,683.31,685.523.000.3x Hiroko Sato * | Equity Analyst813 5251 6185 | hsato@jefferies.com The Long View: PERSOL HDInvestment Thesis / Where We Differ•Persol HD continues to expand the domestic temporary dispatchedworker business, mainly as the market leader in dispatched officeworkers.•We expect the acceptance of remote work after the pandemic to expandtemp staffing and the BPO market in clerical work.•We estimate 2025 to be a period of steady growth in the staffing market(on reopening vs recession fears).Base Case,¥260, -2%•Beneficiary of consolidation in Japan'sstaffing market.•Improvement in EBITDA margin of acquiredcompanies.•Steady wage growth.•Acceptance of remote work after pandemicexpands temp staffing and BPO market ofclerical workers.•Price Target of¥260 based on SOTPvaluation, equates to FY3/26E diluted PER of10.2x and EV/EBITDA of 5.3x.Sustainability MattersTop Material Issue(s):We believeEmployee Health & Safety is the most important issue. HR services and onlineadvertisement businesses tend to be labor-intensive. Keeping employees healthy and motivated isimportant for productivity and sustainable operations. Also,Data Securityis important as HR-relatedinformation is sensitive for both candidates and employers. HR Tech companies store large amountsof personal information, and need to invest to protect the data.Company Target(s):PERSOL targets carbon neutral operations by FY2030.PERSOL aims to increase the proportion of female managers to 37% by 2030.Qs to MgmtHow will do you maintain engagement and health of employees, although your business area isexpanding internationally?Do you plan to hire a board member with international background to manage the APAC division?Please see important disclosure information on pages 6 - 11 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Upside Scenario,¥400, +51%•Staffingnegotiating power with clients and marginsimprove.•Wage inflation and margin improvement.•Improvement in overseas business EBITDAmargin to match domestic level within fiveyears.•Stronger shareholder return.•Price Target of¥400 based on SOTPvaluation. company Downside Scenario,¥190, -28%•Macroeconomic slowdown has a negativeimpact on the structural human resourcesshortage in Japan.•Inability to secure temporary dispatchedworkers.•Additional overseas M&A.•Price Target of¥190 based on SOTPvaluation.Catalysts•Quarterly results has strongerprice- 2 Exhibit 1 - Sum of the parts - PERSOL.Staffing/BPO38,177Technology8,294Career28,520Asia Pacific7,409One-offOthers(12,373)Net cash in FY3/25Consolidated70,027Number of sharesPT (¥)Tax rate34.0%1-year price targetBusinessFY3/26OP(¥mn)Source:Jefferes，Company dataExhibit 2 - JEF estimates vs. Consensus - Persol.Actual(¥mn)FY3/25Sales1,451,2361,536,988 1,605,674 1,683,323 1,538,511 1,622,302 1,685,541OP57,425NP35,871EBITDA78,339EPS (¥)16.04DPS (¥)YoY (%)SalesOPNPEBITDAEPS (¥)DPS (¥)Source: Jefferies estimates, Company, FactSetPlease see important disclosure information on pages 6 - 11 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Company DescriptionPERSOL HDPersol Holdings Co., Ltd. was established in October 2008 via share transfers from Temp Staff and People Staff. In addition to the originalsubsidiary company, Temp Staff group, Persol HD acquired other staffing and employment services. The major business of Persol HD is humanresources services, such as temporary staffing and BPO (Business Process Outsourcing), including expert staffing such as ITO (IT Outsourcing).In particular, Persol HD is one of the biggest service providers of temporary staffing for general office work. In addition, it offers part-time andcareer-recruiting job media and career-change support services.Company Valuation/RisksPERSOL HDOur Price Target of ¥260, based on SOTP valuation, equates to FY3/26E diluted PER of 10.2x and EV/EBITDA of 5.3x.Downside risks include functional replacement due to technological advances and missteps in the overseas business. Upside risks arereorganization of overseas, taken positively by the market and market share gains in career segment.Technopro HoldingsValuation:Price target: ¥3,800 equates to a FY6/25E P/E of 16.5x. Risks: Worsening utilization rate; direct hiring by companies; governmentpolicies; upside risks include decrease in turnover ratio as TP can increase unit price by passing it on to the engineers.Analyst Certification:I, Ken Oiwa, CFA, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) andsubject company(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations orviews expressed in this research report.I, Hiroko Sato, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report ac