SMCP尼斯会议——Sandro和Maje继续超越市场表现

F24AF25EF26E42.917.49.5www.bernsteinresearch.com BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLETickerRatingSMCP.FPOEDMO - Outperform, M - Market-Perform, U - Underperform, NR - Not Rated, CS - Coverage SuspendedSource: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis.INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONSWe are leaving our estimates and price target unchanged.EUROPEAN GENERAL RETAIL I. REQUIRED DISCLOSURESReferences to "Bernstein" or the “Firm” in these disclosures relate to the following entities: Bernstein Institutional Services LLC(April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April 1,2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein (Hong Kong) Limited盛博香港有限公司,C. Bernstein (India) Private Limited (SEBI registration no. INH000006378), Sanford C. Bernstein (Singapore) Private Limited andSanford C. Bernstein Japan KKOn April 1, 2024, Société Générale (SG) and AllianceBernstein, L.P. (AB) completed a transaction that created a new joint venturein which their respective cash equities and research businesses operate in a new business combination. Although their respectiveownership percentages in the joint venture differ between North America and the rest of the world, the creation, production andpublication of research is handled collaboratively on a global basis across the two research brands, “Bernstein” and “Autonomous”.Unless specifically noted otherwise, for purposes of these disclosures, references to Bernstein’s “affiliates” relate to both SG andAB and their respective affiliates.VALUATION METHODOLOGYSMCPOur €5.5 price target is based on the equal weighted average of:1) A DCF valuation based on a WACC of 9.3%, a normalised operating margin of 7.0% and 1.0% growth to perpetuity.2) A peer comparison with a sample comprising G-III Apparel Group, Guess, Capri, HUGO BOSS, PVH and Ralph Lauren on EV/EBIT multiples and P/E multiples applied to our 2025 and 2026 estimates.RISKSSMCPDownside risks:1) Loss of momentum for one or more brands from the company's portfolio could put at risk our sales projections.2) Absence of a soft recovery in China in 2025 and 2026 could put at risk our estimates.3) Price pressures could squizze gross margin and EBIT margin.RATINGS DEFINITIONS, BENCHMARKS AND DISTRIBUTIONBernstein brandThe Bernstein brand rates stocks based on forecasts of relative performance for the next 12 months versus the S&P 500 forstocks listed on the U.S. and Canadian exchanges, versus the Bloomberg Europe Developed Markets Large and Mid Cap PriceReturn Index (EDM) for stocks listed on the European exchanges and emerging markets exchanges outside of the Asia Pacificregion, versus the Bloomberg Japan Large and Mid Cap Price Return Index USD (JP) for stocks listed on the Japanese exchanges,and versus the Bloomberg Asia ex-Japan Large and Mid Cap Price Return Index (ASIAX) for stocks listed on the Asian (ex-Japan)exchanges -unless otherwise specified.The Bernstein brand has three categories of ratings:•Outperform: Stock will outpace the market index by more than 15 pp•Market-Perform: Stock will perform in line with the market index to within +/-15 pp•Underperform: Stock will trail the performance of the market index by more than 15 ppCoverage Suspended: Coverage of a company under the Bernstein research brand has been suspended. Ratings and price targetsare suspended temporarily, are no longer current, and should therefore not be relied upon.Not Rated: A rating assigned when the stock cannot be accurately valued, or the performance of the company accuratelypredicted, at the present time. The covering analyst may continue to publish research reports on the company to update investorsEUROPEAN GENERAL RETAIL Sanford C. Bernstein (Canada) Limited, Sanford(サンフォード・C・バーンスタイン株式会社).3 on events and developments.Not Covered (NC) denotes companies that are not under coverage.Autonomous brandThe Autonomous brand rates stocks as indicated below. As our benchmarks we use the Bloomberg Europe 500 Banks AndFinancial Services Index (BEBANKS) and Bloomberg Europe Dev Mkt Financials Large and Mid Cap Price Ret Index EUR (EDMFI)index for developed European banks and Payments, the Bloomberg Europe 500 Insurance Index (BEINSUR) for Europeaninsurers, the S&P 500 and S&P Financials for US banks and Payments coverage, S5LIFE for US Insurance, the S&P InsuranceSelect Industry (SPSIINS) for US Non-Life Insurers coverage, and the Bloomberg Emerging Markets Financials Large, Mid andSmall Cap Price Return Index (EMLSF) for emerging market banks and insurers and Payments. Ratings are stated relative to thesector (not the market).The Autonomous brand has three categories of ratings:•Outperform (OP): Stock will outpace the relevant index by more than 10 pp•Neutral (N): Stock will perform in line with the market index to within +/-10 pp•Underperform (UP): Stock will trail the performance of the relevant index by more than 10 ppCoverage Suspended: Coverage of a company under the Bernstein research brand has been suspended. Ra