FDJU尼斯会议-部署强化战略，但该集团面临监管和财政压力

BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLETickerRecommandationFDJU.FPMEDMO - Outperform, M - Market-Perform, U - Underperform, NR - Not Rated, CS - Coverage SuspendedSource: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis.INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS(Suite de la page 1)Le groupe devrait selon nous tabler sur une croissance du CA de 6-9% (Banijay, dans les paris sportifs, table sur une croissancede 14-16%) et une amélioration régulière de la marge d’EBITDA (estimation Bernstein : 20-30pb par an hors augmentationde la taxe sur les jeux en France). Nous ne sommes pas sûrs que la journée CMD du 24 juin constituera à ce stade un solidecatalyseur pour les investisseurs en raison du contexte réglementaire. FDJU conserve toutefois un profil de dividende attrayant(rendement du dividende de 6.9% en 2025).Nous maintenons notre opinion prudente sur FDJU et notre recommandation En ligne après un début d’année difficile.En cas de divergence entre la version anglaise et la version française, la version anglaise prévaut.GLOBAL HOTELS & LEISURE 3 I. REQUIRED DISCLOSURESReferences to "Bernstein" or the “Firm” in these disclosures relate to the following entities: Bernstein Institutional Services LLC(April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April 1,2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein (Hong Kong) Limited盛博香港有限公司,C. Bernstein (India) Private Limited (SEBI registration no. INH000006378), Sanford C. Bernstein (Singapore) Private Limited andSanford C. Bernstein Japan KKOn April 1, 2024, Société Générale (SG) and AllianceBernstein, L.P. (AB) completed a transaction that created a new joint venturein which their respective cash equities and research businesses operate in a new business combination. Although their respectiveownership percentages in the joint venture differ between North America and the rest of the world, the creation, production andpublication of research is handled collaboratively on a global basis across the two research brands, “Bernstein” and “Autonomous”.Unless specifically noted otherwise, for purposes of these disclosures, references to Bernstein’s “affiliates” relate to both SG andAB and their respective affiliates.VALUATION METHODOLOGYFDJ UnitedOur €37.5 valuation is the average of our DCF and peer comparison to which we apply an equal weight.1) Our 10-year DCF reflects FDJ’s 25-year exclusive gaming licence renewal. Our 7.9% cost of equity is based on: i) a risk-freerateassumption of 3.0%, ii) a 5.4% risk premium + 1% risk premium to capture regulatory concerns; and iii) a 0.9 beta (average of thegaming universe 0.9). Our terminal value assumes 2% nominal growth to perpetuity.2) A peer comparison with the Lottery and Sports betting sector based on 2026e EV/EBIT of 11.9x (€40.3), EV/EBITDA of 9.5x(€38.6), P/E of 16.3x (€47.1) and FCF yield/EV of 6.9% (€36.9).Our assumption includes another equalisation payment of a maximum €1.5bn in 2044. We apply a 5% (c.€2.0) ESG discount toreflect the governance structure.RISKSFDJ UnitedDownside risks. 1) The regulatory framework is of critical importance to all lottery operators, and regulatory changes (increase inpayout or taxes) could negatively affect FDJ’s sales. For example, a 10% increase in draw-based payout could negatively affect ourPT by 5%. 2) Seventy-five percent of FDJ’s sales are still dependent on physical points of sale (30,000+). Gaming distribution, andtherefore sales, could be negatively affected if FDJ is unable to maintain the current number of POS. 3) FDJ is facing growing andmultifaceted competitive pressure from other gaming operators, notably in the online sports betting segment. Developing sportsbetting activity would likely have a dilutive impact on the group’s revenues and EBITDA, including through M&A. For example, anadditional 10% proportion of sports betting online could negatively affect our revenue growth forecasts by 20bp and our EBITDAby 20bp.Upside risks: 1) Faster than anticipated mitigation measures could have a positive impact on EBITDA; 2) an easing of regulatorypressure could lighten our extra risk premium.RATINGS DEFINITIONS, BENCHMARKS AND DISTRIBUTIONBernstein brandThe Bernstein brand rates stocks based on forecasts of relative performance for the next 12 months versus the S&P 500 forstocks listed on the U.S. and Canadian exchanges, versus the Bloomberg Europe Developed Markets Large and Mid Cap PriceReturn Index (EDM) for stocks listed on the European exchanges and emerging markets exchanges outside of the Asia Pacificregion, versus the Bloomberg Japan Large and Mid Cap Price Return Index USD (JP) for stocks listed on the Japanese exchanges,and versus the Bloomberg Asia ex-Japan Large and Mid Cap Price Return Index (ASIAX) for stocks listed on the Asian (ex-Japan)exchanges -unless otherwise specified.GLOBAL HOTELS & LEISURE Sanford C. Bernstein (Canada) Limited, Sanford(サンフォード・C・バーンスタイン株式会社).4 The Bernstein brand has three categories of ratings:•Outperform: Stock will outpa