轮胎 我们的立场 将米其林评级上调至买入并将大陆集团评级下调至持有

Michael Aspinall * | Equity Analyst+44 (0) 20 7029 8431 | maspinall@jefferies.comPhilippe Houchois ^ | Equity Analyst44 (0) 20 7029 8983 | philippe.houchois@jefferies.comKiara Asinobi * | Equity Associate+44 (0)20 7548 4542 | kasinobi@jefferies.comOwen Paterson * | Equity Analyst+44 (0)20 7548 4745 | opaterson@jefferies.com PT changes•Michelinwe roll forward our multiples based target to '26 from '24 (based on our viewthat '26 targets are achieved) & apply an unch multiple (9x EBIT). PT to €43 from €36•Contiwe apply market multiples for Tyres/Tech (7.9x from 9.0x) & Autos (6.9x from 7x).We use avg forecast '25/'26 EBIT (previously the lower end of targets)•Pirelliwe roll forward our multiples based target to '25 from '24 (unch 9x EBIT)Please see important disclosure information on pages 18 - 22 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Summary of ChangesCompanyContinentalCON GRPreviousPirelliPIRC IMPreviousMichelinML FPPrevious^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwise noted.Please see important disclosure information on pages 18 - 22 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. RatingPrice^HOLDBUY€77.56BUY€6.17BUYHOLD€33.57 Key trends through resultsOE the key area of weakness.OE was the key area of weakness with continued resilience inreplacement markets. Michelin saw a sharp decline in ag OE of c25% ytd. At the group level, OEvolumes were down 20% in Q1. Conti saw OE volumes down in both truck & passenger vehicles.Pirelli also expect an LSD decline in the OE market due weakness in car production in Eur & NthAm.Price and mix a strong offset to weak volumes.Conti saw 4% organic sales growth driven by+3.3% price/mix. Michelin saw +4.8% price/mix and Pirelli saw +3.9% price/mix.Guidance largely unchanged.Michelin reiterated guidance for group SOI >c€3.45bn at constantFX and reported FCF to be €1.7bn. Continental made no changes to segment guidance. Pirelli'sFY guidance was also unchanged at the margin and price/mix level.Please see important disclosure information on pages 18 - 22 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. ContinentalFigure 4 - Continental key financials.Group income statement @ EUR77 - 22-May-25(EUR$bn)Revenue% growthGross Profit% growthOPEX% growthUnderlying EBITDA% growthD&AUnderlying EBIT% marginsNet interestPBTTaxTax rateUnderlying NPATMinoritiesShares outstandingUnderlying EPS (diluted €)EPS gth %DPSSegments(EUR$bn)Automotive GroupRevenueEBIT% marginTyresRevenueEBIT% marginContiTechRevenueEBIT% marginContract ManufacturingRevenueEBIT% marginConsolidationRevenueEBITGroup EBIT% margin% growthOperating MetricsRatiosGross marginsIncremental salesIncremental EBITIncremental marginsTyres % of EBITAutomotive order intakeBook to billSource: Jefferies, Company reportsPlease see important disclosure information on pages 18 - 22 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Figure 5 - Changes to Conti Estimates.NewAutomotive19,580Tyres14,384Contitech6,393Group revenue40,375Automotive641Tyres2,010Contitech406Adj EBIT2,900Automotive3.3%Tyres14.0%Contitech6.3%Adj EBIT7.2%Reported EBIT1,923Taxes(427)Net income1,097EPS5.49Source: JefferiesPlease see important disclosure information on pages 18 - 22 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. MichelinFigure 6 - Michelin key financials.Group income statement @ EUR33.39 - 22-May-25(€bn)Revenue% growthGross Profit% growthOPEX% growthUnderlying EBITDA% growthD&AUnderlying EBIT% marginsNet interestOther FinancialPBTTaxTax rateMinoritiesUnderlying NPATShares outstandingUnderlying EPS (diluted €)EPS gth %DPSSegments(€bn)SR1 (LPV)RevenueEBIT% marginSR2 (MHCV)RevenueEBIT% marginSR3 (Off Highway, Air, Other)RevenueEBIT% marginGroup EBIT% margin% growthOperating MetricsRatiosGross marginsIncremental salesIncremental EBITIncremental marginsRS1 marginsRS2 marginsRS3 marginsNet debtLeverage - cash/(debt)Free cash flowConversion as % EBITSource: Jefferies, Company reportsPlease see important disclosure information on pages 18 - 22 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Figure 7 - Changes to FY Estimates.NewSR1 sales14,689SR2 sales6,607SR3 sales5,964Total sales27,259Organic growth2.2%Reported growth0.2%Adj EBIT3,350% margins12.3%Reported EBIT3,200Net financial expense(92)PBT3,108Taxes(684)Net income2,418No shares705EPS3.43Adj EPS3.60DPS1.60Source: JefferiesWe upgrade Michelin to Buy and Top Pick in tyres. From a valuation perspective Michelin istrading at its largest discount to Pirelli in more than 12mths and at the lowest premium toContinental since mid 2023.From an earnings perspective we are +6% versus consensus in '26 and incorporate the SOItargets being met. Conse