每日加拿大金融动态2025年5月26日

John Aiken, CFA * | Equity Analyst(416) 847-7376 | jaiken@jefferies.comJoe Ng, CFA * | Equity Analyst(416) 847-7396 | jng4@jefferies.comAria Samarzadeh, CFA * | Equity Analyst(416) 847-7398 | asamarzadeh@jefferies.com swap market bets show odds of a 25 basis point rate cut in June remained at 32%, unchanged frombefore the data release.Please see important disclosure information on pages 9 - 14 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Coverage UniverseTD: Greener Pastures: TD's New CEO Faces Mountainous Task of Rebuilding Trust(G&M) Overthe weekend, the Globe and Mail highlighted that TD CEO Raymond Chun was relatively unknownto investors at the time of his appointment, and as CEO, Mr. Chun now faces a mountainous task.He must turn around Canada‘s second-largest bank after the most significant crisis in its history.The money-laundering fracas means TD’s growth is stunted in the United States, regulators arewatching its every move, the board and senior executive team have been overhauled, and employeesare feeling weighed down after more than a year of uncertainty. Mr. Chun’s big message to observersoutside the bank: He’s moving fast to make major changes. But he will have to draw from hisdeep business knowledge and ability to rally the people around him, according to one of his formermanagers at TD. "The scale is new for him, and he will have to rely on the talent around him as hehas in the past," former TD executive vice-president Kerry Peacock said in an interview. "He’s hadthe capacity, even in huge roles, to go very deep, and he’ll still be really deep here, but it’s just toobig." Mr. Chun has had to pivot quickly to sell U.S. assets to ensure the bank can stay within its newconstrained growth limits. And, with TD’s growth capped in its U.S. retail unit, its Canadian businessbecomes core to its expansion plan. Mr. Chun lacks significant U.S. experience, so he will have to pullfrom his Canadian banking resume to generate bigger returns from the highly saturated domesticmarket.TD: TD Shows Canada's Banks Are Getting Ready for Economic Trouble(BBG) On Friday,Bloomberg highlighted in its Bay Street Edition that TD set aside a bit less money than analystsexpected for possibly bad loans in the second quarter, but it’s still preparing for what could besome very gloomy days ahead. The bank earmarked C$1.34 billion ($975 million) for possible creditlosses in Q2, up 25% from the same period last year. For loans that are still in good standing,it provisioned C$395 million. TD reserved less for impaired loans than it did in the first quarter,with the figures shrinking across most of its asset classes, from real estate to credit cards tocommercial loans, according to Chief Risk Officer Ajai Bambawale. "They’re not large dollars, butI’d call them quite symbolic because it’s really telling us that if you keep this tariff issue aside, wewere really seeing peak PCL and good quality," he said, adding that lower interest rates have helpedborrowers. The article notes that week by week, President Trump’s trade war is chipping away atconfidence and investment in certain Canadian industries. The economy is far from a disaster, butit’s clearly softening. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg now see a shallow recession this year,with unemployment rising to 7.2% by year-end. Further, while inflation has eased to its slowest pacesince September on the elimination of the consumer carbon tax and lower oil prices, core inflationmeasures accelerated, creating a bind for the Bank of Canada. The consumer price index rose 1.7%from a year ago in April, down from 2.3% in March, Statistics Canada said last week. Core measuresare uncomfortably high, at more than 3%, and going in the wrong direction.Macroeconomic/GlobalCanada's Central Banker on Economic Turmoil and Diversifying Trade(NYT) Over the weekend,in an interview with the New York Times, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem highlighted thatCanada's economy and financial markets are the most integrative with the U.S., and as a result,the tariffs are Canada's biggest headwind. Mr. Macklem notes that the idea that Canada needsto diversify its trade is not new, and that the tariffs add increased uncertainty, there's no questionthat businesses are looking for other markets and new suppliers. The BoC governor adds that theuncertainty of the U.S. trade war is causing businesses to pause their investments, as they wait formore clarity. That said, the uncertainty appears to have come down since early April, as the tone hasbecome progressively better in recent meetings, discussions have been more candid, and the tone isbecoming increasingly more constructive, but there's more work to do. On the topic of inflation, Mr.Macklem noted that the extent of pass through of tariffs to consumer prices, the speed of it, there isPlease see important disclosure information on pages 9 - 14 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies cl