满帮集团（YMM）：第一季度业绩稳健，但投资带来利润率展望压力

Restricted - External Earnings ReviewYMMEQUAL WEIGHTChina TechnologyPrice TargetPrice (20-May-25)Potential Upside/DownsideSource: Bloomberg, Barclays ResearchMarket Cap (USD mn)Shares Outstanding (mn)Free Float (%)52 Wk Avg Daily Volume (mn)Dividend Yield (%)Return on Equity TTM (%)Current BVPS (USD)Source: BloombergPrice PerformanceExchange-NYSE52 Week rangeUSD 13.85-6.66Source: IDCLink to Barclays Live for interactive chartingChina TechnologyJiong Shao, CFA+1 212 526 5562jiong.shao@barclays.comBCI, USLian Xiu (Roger) Duan+1 212 526 4633lianxiu.duan@barclays.comBCI, USXinyao Song+1 212 526 6972xinyao.song@barclays.comBCI, US 126441045.89N/A9.10.8110.2840.72 1Q25 Earnings UpdateFinancialsRevenue:YMM reported total revenue of RMB 2.7bn, +1.7% ahead of our estimates. Freightbrokerage services revenue was RMB 966mn, in line with our estimate; Freight listing servicesrevenue was RMB 235mn, +6.3% vs. our estimate; Transaction services revenue was RMB 1.0bn,+2.3% higher than we expected. VAS revenue was RMB 453mn, +1.3% vs. our estimate.Gross Profit:Total gross profit came in at RMB 2.0bn, +4.7% vs. our estimate. GPM came in at74%, +213bps higher than our estimate, driven by decrease in VAT, related tax surcharges andother tax costs, net of grants from government authorities.OPEX:Total OPEX came in 5% lower than we expected. S&M expenses were RMB 378mn, 1.9%lower than our estimate; G&A expenses were RMB 186mn, 12.4% lower than we expected; R&Dexpenses were RMB 193mn, 2.9% lower than we expected.Adj. OPI and Adj. Net Income:Adj. OPI for the quarter was RMB 1.3bn, +12.6% higher than weexpected mainly due to strong top-line growth and GM structural growth. Adj. net income forthe quarter was RMB 1.4bn, +7.1% higher than our expectation.Guidance:YMM guided total net revenue of RMB 3.06bn to RMB 3.12bn for 2Q25, representing ayoy growth rate of 10.6% to 12.9%.Shareholder return:On May 19, 2025, YMM repurchased ordinary shares worth of $37.5bnthrough private transactions.FIGURE 1. Actual vs estimateSource: Company data, Barclays Research estimate 4 Business UpdateIn 1Q, orders kept robust growth at 23% yoy to 48.2mn, driven by increasing shippers andenhanced fulfillment. Specifically, shipper MAUs grew 29% yoy to 2.76mn, and shippermembers reached record high of 1.1mn partly boosted by its strong adoption of 288membership program. Particularly, orders from direct shippers rose to 51% this quarter, upfrom 47% a year ago, mainly buoyed by low and medium frequency direct shippers, which areprimarily SMEs. Operational-wise, YMM strategically streamlined shipment onboarding,strengthened insuranceofferings,and improved customer support. As such, it has seen strongcustomer loyalty with over 80% 12-month retention rate for shipper members.On the supply side, trucker MAUs remained over 3mn in 1Q, up HSD yoy. Trucker membershipremained healthy, surpassing 700k members contributing 40% of long-haul orders.Management shared that supply of medium and heavy-duty truckers remained stable in the lasttwo years and the vehicle turnover ratio has been improved. Overall, trucker's next-monthretention rate sustained at over 85%, demonstrating strong engagement.Fulfillment rate surged to a record high of 39.2% (+6ppt yoy) this quarter, accompanied by 60%(+10ppt yoy) average fulfillment rate from direct shippers. Management believes the continuousstructural change will be a driver going forward. Operational improvements also supported,including refined pricing structure based on truckload, clearing pricing indifferenttransactiontypes (fewer cancellations due to price misunderstanding), and optimized trucker orderacceptance process. Further, balanced supply and demand dynamic and moreefficientmatching algorithm have helped the average time from order posting to matching lower tobelow 10 minutes (saved 35% yoy), underpinning the strong fulfillment growth.These positive improvements have led 1Q total revenue grew 19% yoy, better than ourexpected. Transaction services continued to be strong at 51% yoy, driven by 23% yoy ordergrowth, increased commission coverage rate to 85% (+8ppt yoy), and higher averagecommissions per order to RMB 25.5 (from 22.7 a year ago). That implies an about 1.8% take rate.Looking ahead into 2025, management raised order growth outlook to 22-25% given the strongorder momentum in April and May, while globaltariffhikes now have limited impact on itsbusiness but it will keep monitoring domestic demand. Average commissions per order isexpected to stay relatively stable at RMB 24 due to user expansion and order structural mix.Commission penetration rate could exceed 85% this year, attributable to more city coverageand exploration ofshiftingto order-based commission fees. As a result, take rate would berelatively stable with 1Q's level at 1.8%-1.9% for 2025.We want to highlight that YMM invested an additional $125mn in the autonomous drivingcompany Plus PRC, as such becoming the controlled shareholder and starting to conso